Avivagen (VIV:TSX) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Avivagen $0.90 (CAD) Close Price as of 20/12/2017

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Avivagen, (VIV:TSX) is found to be  Undervalued.

Company Avivagen
Symbol:Exchange VIV:TSX
Industry Healthcare:Drug Manufacturers-Major
Close Price/Date $0.90 (CAD) 20/12/2017
Weighted Average Valuation $2.05 (CAD)
Summary VIV:TSX is found to be  Undervalued by 127.9% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $3.00 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $1.23 (CAD)
Adjusted Book Value: $0.85 (CAD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Avivagen Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for VIV:TSX

Using a discounted cash flow model generates a negative intrinsic value due to one of 1) zero or negative projected cash flows 2) excessive capital expenditures or 3) excessive debt to calculated equity value for VIV:TSX. We have not shown the calculated value here for that reason.

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $0.86 (CAD) for VIV:TSX. We also generated a valuation of $1.23 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Alimera Sciences (ALIM:NAS), Immune Pharmaceuticals (IMNP:NAS), Oasmia Pharmaceutical (OASM:NAS), ProPhase Labs (PRPH:NAS) and Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP:NAS)

Company VIV:TSX End Date Value
Cash/Share $0.00 (CAD)
Book Value/Share ($0.06) (CAD)
MarketCap 26,244,949
1 Year Return -0.250
NetPPE 0
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (CAD) 0
($0.09) (CAD) 0
$1.63 (CAD) 0
$0.83 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
Ratios Used Average Values ALIM:NAS IMNP:NAS OASM:NAS PRPH:NAS TNXP:NAS
Cash / Share 1.02 0.50 0.03 0.60 0.03 3.94
Book Value / Share 1.16 -0.68 0.26 0.91 2.04 3.28
Market Cap 47,427,834 89,948,382 21,643,805 65,466,995 32,846,788 27,233,202
1 Year Return -0.31 0.18 -0.85 -0.71 0.12 -0.31
Net PPE 4,759,200 1,787,000 316,000 18,368,000 3,175,000 150,000

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $0.00 (CAD) for VIV:TSX

Company VIV:TSX End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.15) (CAD)
Book Value/Share ($0.06) (CAD)
Sales/Share $0.01 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.15) (CAD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.09) (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 59.40
PS Ratio 0.00
PCF Ratio 0.00
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  VIV:TSX for the last 10 years was  58.91

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  VIV:TSX and generated a book value of  $0.01 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.85 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for VIV:TSX. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for VIV:TSX for 2018 of $3.00 (CAD).

VIV:TSX Avivagen

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 0 0 2017-12-19

Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Company Overview (VIV:TSX CAD)

Price 15.09
Range 15.03 – 15.27
52 week 12.83 – 16.85
Open 15.13
Vol / Avg. 0.00/1.34M
Mkt cap 23.91B
P/E 19.52
Div/yield 0.27/8.11
EPS 0.77
Shares 1.12B
Beta 1.35
Inst. own 15%
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Avivagen Inc is a life-sciences company. The Company is developing and commercializing products to replace antibiotics in livestock feeds to optimize the health and growth of the animals by supporting the animal’s own health defences.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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