Arianne Phosphate (DAN:TSX) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Arianne Phosphate $0.53 (CAD) Close Price as of 07/03/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Arianne Phosphate, (DAN:TSX) is found to be  Undervalued.

Company Arianne Phosphate
Symbol:Exchange DAN:TSX
Industry Basic Materials:Industrial Metals & Minerals
Close Price/Date $0.53 (CAD) 07/03/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $1.29 (CAD)
Summary DAN:TSX is found to be  Undervalued by 143.4% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $2.00 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $0.48 (CAD)
Adjusted Book Value: $0.78 (CAD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Arianne Phosphate Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for DAN:TSX

Using a discounted cash flow model generates a negative intrinsic value due to one of 1) zero or negative projected cash flows 2) excessive capital expenditures or 3) excessive debt to calculated equity value for DAN:TSX. We have not shown the calculated value here for that reason.

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $0.56 (CAD) for DAN:TSX. We also generated a valuation of $0.48 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Balmoral Resources (BAR:TSE), Canada Zinc Metals (CZX:TSX), Erdene Resource Dev (ERD:TSE), INV Metals (INV:TSE) and Leading Edge Materials (LEM:TSX)

Company DAN:TSX End Date Value
Cash/Share $0.01 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $0.26 (CAD)
MarketCap 54,892,423
1 Year Return -0.369
NetPPE 52,959,455
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.25 (CAD) 0
$0.30 (CAD) 0
$0.77 (CAD) 0
$0.60 (CAD) 0
$0.50 (CAD) 0
Ratios Used Average Values BAR:TSE CZX:TSX ERD:TSE INV:TSE LEM:TSX
Cash / Share 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.05
Book Value / Share 0.43 0.45 0.48 0.09 0.81 0.33
Market Cap 75,588,429 77,541,561 47,631,360 115,140,640 77,460,552 60,168,030
1 Year Return -0.28 -0.45 -0.08 -0.51 -0.25 -0.11
Net PPE 52,180,523 0 71,050,179 0 0 33,310,867

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $0.78 (CAD) for DAN:TSX

Company DAN:TSX End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.03) (CAD)
Book Value/Share $0.26 (CAD)
Sales/Share $0.00 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.04) (CAD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.03) (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.78 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 2.99
PS Ratio 0.00
PCF Ratio 0.00
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  DAN:TSX for the last 10 years was  2.97

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  DAN:TSX and generated a book value of  $0.26 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.78 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for DAN:TSX. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for DAN:TSX for 2018 of $2.00 (CAD).

Company Overview (DAN:TSX CAD)

Price 0.53
Range 0.53 – 0.59
52 week 0.53 – 0.97
Open 0.58
Vol / Avg. 125600/69496
Mkt cap 53.28M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.03
Shares 100.53M
Beta 1.10
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Arianne Phosphate Inc is a mineral exploration company. The Company is engaged in developing the Lac à Paul phosphate deposits located in of Quebec, Canada.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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