The Madison Square Garden (MSG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

The Madison Square Garden(MSG:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Leisure

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$272.50 (USD) 08/11/2018

Weighted Valuation
$306.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 12.3%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $360.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $225.00 (USD)
Multiples: $305.97 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (MSG:NYS USD)

Price 272.50
Range 271.28 – 279.57
52 week 207.90 – 327.30
Open 276.93
Vol / Avg. 156744/333882
Mkt cap 6.47B
P/E 53.96
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 5.94
Shares 23.75M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

The Madison Square Garden Co is a live sports and entertainment company operating in New York, USA. Its segments include MSG Sports and MSG Entertainment. The MSG Sports segment operates Madison’s professional sports franchises, namely New York Knicks, New York Rangers, New York Liberty the Hartford Wolf Pack of American Hockey League, and the Westchester Knicks. The MSG Entertainment segment comprises live entertainment events – including concerts, family shows, performing arts and special events at venues which include Madison Square Garden, The Theater at Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre, the Forum, The Chicago Theatre and the Wang Theatre. Revenues are generated from the sale of tickets for events and distributions of league-wide television contracts.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MSG:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $162.13 (USD) for MSG:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MSG:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $162.13 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.07 $202.28 $135.22
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $137.89 $198.29
Tax Rate 0.27 $171.08 $153.19
Cash Flow 237,790,051 $155.62 $168.65
Capital Expenditures 864,200 $162.16 $162.11
Long Term Debt 0 $162.13 $162.13

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $225.00 (USD) for MSG:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $308.53 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Expedia Group (EXPE:NAS), Hasbro (HAS:NAS), International Speedway (ISCA:NAS), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS:NYS) and TripAdvisor (TRIP:NAS).

Company MSG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.05 (USD)
Book Value/Share $106.79 (USD)
Sales/Share $65.38 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $9.25 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.51 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$177.73 (USD) 0.0
$546.05 (USD) 0.0
$166.67 (USD) 0.0
$136.28 (USD) 0.0
$98.29 (USD) 0.0
MSG:NYS Ratios Used Average Values EXPE:NAS HAS:NAS ISCA:NAS SEAS:NYS TRIP:NAS
46.57 PE Ratio 35.20 43.25 56.26 6.07 0.00 0.00
2.59 PB Ratio 5.11 4.26 6.57 1.01 8.40 5.33
4.23 PS Ratio 2.55 1.76 2.33 2.35 1.72 4.60
29.90 PCF Ratio 15.21 9.79 19.46 7.32 9.75 29.72
35.05 EV to EBITDA 15.10 11.44 14.02 7.05 14.97 28.01

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $305.97 (USD) for MSG:NYS

Company MSG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.05 (USD)
Book Value/Share $106.79 (USD)
Sales/Share $65.38 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $9.25 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.51 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$419.81 (USD) 0
$199.88 (USD) 0
$252.97 (USD) 0
$313.81 (USD) 0
$343.38 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 83.13
PB Ratio 1.87
PS Ratio 3.87
PCF Ratio 33.91
EV to EBITDA 52.74

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MSG:NYS for the last 3 years was  1.88

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MSG:NYS and generated a book value of  $106.91 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $200.74 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for MSG:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for MSG:NYS for 2019 of $360.00 (USD).

MSG:NYS The Madison Square Garden

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


%d bloggers like this: