HubSpot (HUBS:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

HubSpot(HUBS:NYS)

Technology:Software-Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$171.87 (USD) 13/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$156.80 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 8.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $156.80 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (HUBS:NYS USD)

Price 171.87
Range 167.72 – 180.00
52 week 102.65 – 172.00
Open 179.25
Vol / Avg. 1.55M/694912
Mkt cap 6.81B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.66
Shares 39.61M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

HubSpot Inc. is a provider of cloud-based marketing and sales software solutions to mid-market businesses that are delivered through its centralized platform, which allows businesses to create personalized interactions with customers through emails and social media alerts. Its solutions include social media, search engine optimization, blogging, website content management, marketing automation, and data analytics capabilities. The company derives revenue from subscription fees to its solutions that are typically sold on an annual basis. A majority of the firm’s revenue is generated in the Americas, but it also has a presence in the Europe and Asia-Pacific regions.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for HUBS:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $25.95 (USD) for HUBS:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

HUBS:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $25.95 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 13.64 $28.75 $23.64
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $24.05 $28.25
Tax Rate -0.03 $27.12 $24.81
Cash Flow 116,244,714 $24.71 $27.20
Capital Expenditures -14,812,600 $25.83 $26.08
Long Term Debt 1,011,000 $25.95 $25.95

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $29.09 (USD) for HUBS:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $79.71 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Aspen Technology (AZPN:NAS), CDK Global (CDK:NAS), LogMeIn (LOGM:NAS), National Instruments (NATI:NAS) and Nuance Communications (NUAN:NAS).

Company HUBS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.66) (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.48 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.73 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.45) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$21.50 (USD) 0.0
$39.48 (USD) 0.0
$18.02 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
HUBS:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AZPN:NAS CDK:NAS LOGM:NAS NATI:NAS NUAN:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 27.49 0.00 16.87 0.00 38.12 0.00
27.12 PB Ratio 3.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.73 2.64
12.68 PS Ratio 3.16 0.00 2.90 0.00 4.34 2.25
91.73 PCF Ratio 15.23 0.00 13.84 0.00 21.46 10.40
0.00 EV to EBITDA 27.26 0.00 12.04 0.00 21.87 47.87

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $120.65 (USD) for HUBS:NYS

Company HUBS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.66) (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.48 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.73 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.45) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$92.33 (USD) 0
$106.40 (USD) 0
$163.21 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 15.82
PS Ratio 8.52
PCF Ratio 94.56
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  HUBS:NYS for the last 4 years was  15.93

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  HUBS:NYS and generated a book value of  $6.22 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $99.18 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for HUBS:NYS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for HUBS:NYS for 2019 of $156.80 (USD).

HUBS:NYS HubSpot

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 0 3.8000 Outperform 2019-2-12

Current Price: 171.87 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 1.07 1.56
# EPS Analysts 5 4
Mean Revenue 633.60 776.50
# Revenue Analysts 5 4
Mean Target Price 156.80
Mean Cash Flow 2.06 2.73
Mean EBITDA 69.00 96.90
Mean Net Income 52.10 73.20
Mean Debt Outstanding -319.70 -398.80
Mean Tax Rate 10.00
Mean Growth Rate 50.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 46.40 57.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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