Amgen (AMGN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Amgen(AMGN:NAS)

Healthcare:Drug Manufacturers-Major

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$186.68 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$191.24 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 2.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $206.20 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $170.41 (USD)
Multiples: $188.05 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AMGN:NAS USD)

Price 186.68
Range 185.76 – 187.80
52 week 166.05 – 208.89
Open 187.59
Vol / Avg. 2.55M/3.39M
Mkt cap 116.17B
P/E 14.79
Div/yield 5.28/0.03
EPS 12.62
Shares 622.28M
Beta 1.21

Company Description

Amgen is a leader in biotechnology-based human therapeutics, with historical expertise in renal disease and cancer supportive care products. Flagship drugs include red blood cell boosters Epogen and Aranesp, immune system boosters Neupogen and Neulasta, and Enbrel for inflammatory diseases. Amgen introduced its first cancer therapeutic, Vectibix, in 2006 and received approval for bone-strengthening drug Prolia/Xgeva in 2010. Amgen’s acquisition of Onyx bolstered the firm’s therapeutic oncology portfolio with Nexavar and Kyprolis. Recent launches include Repatha (cholesterol-lowering) and Aimovig (migraine).

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AMGN:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $245.66 (USD) for AMGN:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AMGN:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $245.66 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.68 $309.72 $200.76
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $205.67 $302.72
Tax Rate 0.12 $260.05 $231.27
Cash Flow 11,455,454,000 $232.51 $258.81
Capital Expenditures -617,800,000 $245.04 $246.28
Long Term Debt 35,323,000,000 $248.50 $242.82

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $170.41 (USD) for AMGN:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $295.75 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Biogen (BIIB:NAS), Celgene (CELG:NAS) and Gilead Sciences (GILD:NAS).

Company AMGN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $12.62 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.85 (USD)
Sales/Share $35.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $16.99 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$374.00 (USD) -32.2
$143.85 (USD) -67.5
$160.36 (USD) 51.7
$156.28 (USD) -11.6
$176.00 (USD) 0.0
AMGN:NAS Ratios Used Average Values BIIB:NAS CELG:NAS GILD:NAS
14.83 PE Ratio 29.64 15.47 16.05 57.39
9.42 PB Ratio 7.25 5.05 12.76 3.93
5.24 PS Ratio 4.49 5.09 4.25 4.13
11.02 PCF Ratio 12.20 11.79 14.37 10.45
11.19 EV to EBITDA 9.08 10.28 9.27 7.71

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $188.05 (USD) for AMGN:NAS

Company AMGN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $12.62 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.85 (USD)
Sales/Share $35.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $16.99 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$233.72 (USD) 0
$84.66 (USD) 0
$203.97 (USD) 0
$215.54 (USD) 0
$202.36 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.52
PB Ratio 4.26
PS Ratio 5.71
PCF Ratio 12.69
EV to EBITDA 10.45

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AMGN:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.25

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AMGN:NAS and generated a book value of  $19.85 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $84.37 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for AMGN:NAS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for AMGN:NAS for 2019 of $206.20 (USD).

AMGN:NAS Amgen

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 6 0 3.5000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 186.68 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 14.04 14.48 14.53
# EPS Analysts 8 5 4
Mean Revenue 22,613.10 22,195.80 22,112.00
# Revenue Analysts 5 4 4
Mean Target Price 206.20
Mean Cash Flow 16.11 17.82 19.05
Mean EBITDA 11,789.20 11,394.50 11,121.80
Mean Net Income 8,955.20 9,796.10 10,116.50
Mean Debt Outstanding -12,418.20 -15,692.60 -21,308.10
Mean Tax Rate 14.25 13.75 13.75
Mean Growth Rate 3.28
Mean Capital Expenditure 734.70 798.60 849.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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