Salesforce.com (CRM:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Salesforce.com(CRM:NYS)

Technology:Software-Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$157.65 (USD) 11/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$179.48 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 13.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $174.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $187.69 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (CRM:NYS USD)

Price 157.65
Range 153.43 – 157.77
52 week 112.88 – 164.53
Open 155.90
Vol / Avg. 5.65M/6.72M
Mkt cap 121.55B
P/E 110.24
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.43
Shares 771M
Beta 1.40

Company Description

Salesforce.com Inc is a software-as-as-service vendor that primarily develops customer relationship management, or CRM, products. The firm has a variety of cloud-based tools targeting horizontal markets such as Sales Cloud, to monitor sales leads, Service Cloud, for customer support, Marketing Cloud, to launch digital marketing campaigns, Commerce Cloud, a multitenant e-commerce tool, Quip, its collaboration tools, and the Salesforce Platform, which allows enterprises to build applications. Beyond this, Salesforce has various initiatives such as Trailhead, Einstein AI, Lightning, Internet of Things, Heroku, Analytics, AppExchange, and MuleSoft. Salesforce is the largest pure-play SaaS vendor in the world.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CRM:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $89.84 (USD) for CRM:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CRM:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $89.84 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.27 $104.94 $78.39
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $79.85 $103.02
Tax Rate -0.13 $93.82 $85.86
Cash Flow 5,017,954,000 $85.33 $94.35
Capital Expenditures -16,041,200 $89.83 $89.85
Long Term Debt 2,018,099,000 $89.97 $89.71

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $365.41 (USD) for CRM:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $339.17 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Adobe (ADBE:NAS), Autodesk (ADSK:NAS), Intuit (INTU:NAS), ServiceNow (NOW:NYS) and Red Hat (RHT:NYS).

Company CRM:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.43 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.06 (USD)
Sales/Share $16.30 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.07 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.71 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$107.52 (USD) 0.0
$467.75 (USD) 65.9
$213.91 (USD) 91.3
$195.42 (USD) -24.7
$387.94 (USD) 0.0
CRM:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ADBE:NAS ADSK:NAS INTU:NAS NOW:NYS RHT:NYS
175.97 PE Ratio 75.19 50.48 0.00 51.70 0.00 123.38
8.59 PB Ratio 24.54 13.71 0.00 22.90 38.89 22.67
10.04 PS Ratio 13.13 14.47 13.89 10.43 16.32 10.53
40.20 PCF Ratio 49.01 32.43 94.62 30.43 52.50 35.05
72.28 EV to EBITDA 143.24 40.03 328.59 34.38 263.82 49.36

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $210.40 (USD) for CRM:NYS

Company CRM:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.43 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.06 (USD)
Sales/Share $16.30 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.07 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.71 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$383.71 (USD) 0
$175.47 (USD) 0
$125.52 (USD) 0
$128.57 (USD) 0
$238.76 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 268.33
PB Ratio 9.21
PS Ratio 7.70
PCF Ratio 31.58
EV to EBITDA 88.15

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CRM:NYS for the last 10 years was  9.26

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CRM:NYS and generated a book value of  $20.27 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $187.69 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 11 analysts that provide a valuation for CRM:NYS. The 11 analysts have a concensus valuation for CRM:NYS for 2020 of $174.00 (USD).

CRM:NYS Salesforce.com

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
9 3 0 4.4615 Outperform 2019-3-8

Current Price: 157.65 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 2.79 3.45 4.32
# EPS Analysts 13 11 4
Mean Revenue 16,030.70 19,127.30 22,677.60
# Revenue Analysts 11 9 4
Mean Target Price 174.00
Mean Cash Flow 5.00 5.80 6.88
Mean EBITDA 3,214.90 4,224.10 4,871.80
Mean Net Income 2,070.00 2,634.30 3,058.30
Mean Debt Outstanding -5,574.10 -9,105.90 -8,198.50
Mean Tax Rate 22.00 22.50 22.75
Mean Growth Rate 21.63
Mean Capital Expenditure 733.20 866.00 1,030.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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