{"id":1161,"date":"2018-02-21T13:17:37","date_gmt":"2018-02-21T18:17:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/?p=1161"},"modified":"2018-02-21T13:17:37","modified_gmt":"2018-02-21T18:17:37","slug":"arlington-asset-inv-ainys-fundamental-valuation-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/2018\/02\/21\/arlington-asset-inv-ainys-fundamental-valuation-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Arlington Asset Inv (AI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n This Report was generated using the tools available on StockCalc.com<\/a>. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. emphasizes that the user assumes all risks associated with the use of this report or the Stockcalc website including, but not limited to, all terms and conditions mentioned in the legal disclaimer<\/a>.
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Valuation Summary:<\/h3>\n

Arlington Asset Inv<\/strong><\/span> $11.42 (USD) Close Price as of 16\/02\/2018<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Arlington Asset Inv<\/strong>, (AI:NYS) is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly<\/span> Undervalued<\/span>.\n <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Company<\/td>\nArlington Asset Inv<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Symbol:Exchange<\/td>\nAI:NYS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Industry<\/td>\nFinancial Services:Specialty Finance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Close Price\/Date<\/td>\n$11.42 (USD) 16\/02\/2018<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weighted Average Valuation<\/td>\n$11.60 (USD)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Summary<\/td>\nAI:NYS is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly<\/span> Undervalued<\/span> by 1.6% using the 3 valuation models shown below.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Valuation Models Used<\/td>\nAnalyst Consensus: $12.88 (USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
(in order of importance)<\/td>\nAdjusted Book Value: $11.13 (USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nComparables: $8.70 (USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Valuation Methods Analysis<\/td>\nThis company is:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash Flow Basis:<\/td>\nOvervalued<\/span> on a Cash Flow Valuation basis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Comparable Company Basis:<\/td>\nOvervalued<\/span> on a Comparable Valuation basis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Asset Basis:<\/td>\nFairly valued<\/span> on an Asset Valuation basis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n <\/p>\n
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Valuation Details<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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\n Arlington Asset Inv Valuations
\n <\/h4>\n
\"Summary<\/div>\n

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AI:NYS<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $7.48 (USD)<\/strong> for AI:NYS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sensitivity Analysis<\/h4>\n

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
AI:NYS<\/th>\nCurrent Values<\/th>\nValuation If Dropped *<\/th>\nValuation If Raised *<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Calculated Value:<\/th>\n$7.48<\/th>\n1%<\/th>\n5%<\/th>\n1%<\/th>\n5%<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
WACC (or Ke)<\/td>\n10.63<\/td>\n$8.60<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$6.61<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Terminal Growth Rate<\/td>\n3.00<\/td>\n$6.73<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$8.45<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tax Rate<\/td>\n0.40<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$8.10<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$6.85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash Flow<\/td>\n29,247,369<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$7.10<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$7.85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Capital Expenditures<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$7.48<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$7.48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Long Term Debt<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$7.48<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$7.48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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\n

Comparables Model<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $8.70 (USD)<\/strong> for AI:NYS<\/strong>. We also generated a valuation of $17.45 (USD)<\/strong> using other metrics and comparables.
\n The comparable companies were America First Multifamily (ATAX:NAS), Marlin Business Services (MRLN:NAS), Ocwen Financial (OCN:NYS) and PennyMac Financial Servs (PFSI:NYS)\n <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Company AI:NYS<\/th>\nEnd Date Value<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Earnings\/Share<\/td>\n$0.66 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Book Value\/Share<\/td>\n$13.67 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sales\/Share<\/td>\n$1.41 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash Flow\/Share<\/td>\n$3.63 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EBITDA\/Share<\/td>\n$4.17 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Price Based on Comps<\/th>\nAdjustment Factor (%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.00 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n-77.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$19.12 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n-51.0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$4.04 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n-30.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$29.99 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n-53.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
($2.84) (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n-82.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
AI:NYS<\/th>\nRatios Used<\/th>\nAverage Values<\/th>\nATAX:NAS<\/th>\nMRLN:NAS<\/th>\nOCN:NYS<\/th>\nPFSI:NYS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
0.00<\/td>\nPE Ratio<\/td>\n18.14<\/span><\/td>\n20.83<\/td>\n24.07<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n9.52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.84<\/td>\nPB Ratio<\/td>\n1.40<\/span><\/td>\n1.25<\/td>\n2.04<\/td>\n0.85<\/td>\n1.46<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8.09<\/td>\nPS Ratio<\/td>\n2.86<\/span><\/td>\n5.82<\/td>\n3.21<\/td>\n0.38<\/td>\n2.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3.14<\/td>\nPCF Ratio<\/td>\n8.25<\/span><\/td>\n20.11<\/td>\n6.15<\/td>\n0.89<\/td>\n5.86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.00<\/td>\nEV to EBITDA<\/td>\n5.00<\/span><\/td>\n5.00<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
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Multiples<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $15.63 (USD)<\/strong> for AI:NYS<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Company AI:NYS<\/th>\nEnd Date Value<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Earnings\/Share<\/td>\n$0.66 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Book Value\/Share<\/td>\n$13.67 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sales\/Share<\/td>\n$1.41 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash Flow\/Share<\/td>\n$3.63 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EBITDA\/Share<\/td>\n$4.17 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Price Based on Comps<\/th>\nAdjustment Factor<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
$7.38 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$11.26 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$11.47 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$12.76 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$35.30 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ratios<\/th>\nRatio Average<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
PE Ratio<\/td>\n11.19<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PB Ratio<\/td>\n0.82<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PS Ratio<\/td>\n8.12<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PCF Ratio<\/td>\n3.51<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EV to EBITDA<\/td>\n8.46<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AI:NYS<\/strong> for the last 10 years was  0.83<\/strong>
\n
We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AI:NYS<\/strong> and generated a book value of  $13.44 (USD)<\/strong>
\n By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $11.13 (USD)<\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n

\n
\n

Analyst Data<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for AI:NYS<\/strong>. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for AI:NYS<\/strong> for 2018 of $12.88 (USD)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

AI:NYS Arlington Asset Inv<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Analyst Recommendation<\/td>\n<\/tr>\nBuy<\/td>\nHold<\/td>\nSell<\/td>\nRating
(of 5)<\/td>\n		Guidance<\/td>\nAs Of<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.0000<\/td>\nOutperform<\/td>\n2018-2-16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

Current Price: not available<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Analyst Consensus<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD Millions<\/td>\n2018<\/td>\n2019<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean EPS<\/td>\n2.06<\/td>\n2.02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# EPS Analysts<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Revenue<\/td>\n58.00<\/td>\n54.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# Revenue Analysts<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Target Price<\/td>\n12.88<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Cash Flow<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean EBITDA<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Net Income<\/td>\n57.80<\/td>\n56.70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Debt Outstanding<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Tax Rate<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Growth Rate<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mean Capital Expenditure<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
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Company Overview (AI:NYS USD)<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Price<\/td>\n11.42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Range<\/td>\n11.25 – 11.47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
52 week<\/td>\n10.05 – 15.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Open<\/td>\n11.26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vol \/ Avg.<\/td>\n550541\/109869<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mkt cap<\/td>\n320.2M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P\/E<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div\/yield<\/td>\n2.20\/0.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EPS<\/td>\n0.66<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shares<\/td>\n28.04M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beta<\/td>\n1.85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\"Summary\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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Detailed Company Description<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Arlington Asset Investment Corp is an investment firm. It focuses on acquiring and holding a levered portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) consisting of agency MBS and private-label MBS.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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\n

Explanation of Valuation Models<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
\n The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)<\/span> valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
\n The Price Comparables<\/span> valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
\n We have included the Other Comparables<\/span> as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash\/Share, Book Value\/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
\n Multiples<\/span> are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
\n With Adjusted Book Value (ABV)<\/span> we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
\n If we have Analyst coverage<\/span> for the company we use the consensus target price here.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n

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Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. and any other names, images, and logos identifying Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. and its products and services are proprietary trademarks of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc.. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not permit the use of its name in advertising, as an endorsement of any product or service, or for any other commercial purpose, except where expressly permitted by written agreement between parties. This website and the copyright in the materials on this website (including all text, information, graphics, animation, and images) is owned by or licensed to Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. All other trademarks, service marks, registered trademarks, or registered service marks mentioned in this website are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

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\n © 2017 Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Print This Report was generated using the tools available on StockCalc.com. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. emphasizes that the user assumes all risks associated with the use of this report or the Stockcalc website including, but not limited to, all …<\/p>\n

Arlington Asset Inv (AI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report<\/span> Read More »<\/a><\/p>\nRead More<\/i><\/a>","protected":false},"author":288,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3],"tags":[12,1371,1372,1370,1373,10,29,30,8,9,1374,1375,1377,1376,1378,1379,33,6],"class_list":["post-1161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fundamental-valuation-report","tag-adjusted-book-value","tag-ai","tag-america-first-multifamily","tag-arlington-asset-inv","tag-atax","tag-comps","tag-dcf","tag-discounted-cash-flow","tag-fundamental-analysis","tag-intrinsic-value","tag-marlin-business-services","tag-mrln","tag-ocn","tag-ocwen-financial","tag-pennymac-financial-servs","tag-pfsi","tag-undervalued","tag-valuation"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9s44y-iJ","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/288"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1161"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1176,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1161\/revisions\/1176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}