{"id":1419,"date":"2018-03-05T13:49:36","date_gmt":"2018-03-05T18:49:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/?p=1419"},"modified":"2018-03-05T13:49:36","modified_gmt":"2018-03-05T18:49:36","slug":"axogen-axgnnas-fundamental-valuation-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/2018\/03\/05\/axogen-axgnnas-fundamental-valuation-report\/","title":{"rendered":"AxoGen (AXGN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n This Report was generated using the tools available on StockCalc.com<\/a>. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. emphasizes that the user assumes all risks associated with the use of this report or the Stockcalc website including, but not limited to, all terms and conditions mentioned in the legal disclaimer<\/a>.
\n To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here<\/a>.
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Valuation Summary:<\/h3>\n

AxoGen<\/strong><\/span> $32.95 (USD) Close Price as of 02\/03\/2018<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Based on the analysis conducted in this report, AxoGen<\/strong>, (AXGN:NAS) is found to be  Overvalued<\/span>.\n <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Company<\/td>\nAxoGen<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Symbol:Exchange<\/td>\nAXGN:NAS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Industry<\/td>\nHealthcare:Medical Devices<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Close Price\/Date<\/td>\n$32.95 (USD) 02\/03\/2018<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weighted Average Valuation<\/td>\n$30.94 (USD)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Summary<\/td>\nAXGN:NAS is found to be  Overvalued<\/span> by 6.1% using the 3 valuation models shown below.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Valuation Models Used<\/td>\nAnalyst Consensus: $37.00 (USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
(in order of importance)<\/td>\nComparables: $26.34 (USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nAdjusted Book Value: $21.95 (USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Valuation Methods Analysis<\/td>\nThis company is:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash Flow Basis:<\/td>\nOvervalued<\/span> on a Cash Flow Valuation basis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Comparable Company Basis:<\/td>\nOvervalued<\/span> on a Comparable Valuation basis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Asset Basis:<\/td>\nOvervalued<\/span> on an Asset Valuation basis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n <\/p>\n
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Valuation Details<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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\n AxoGen Valuations
\n <\/h4>\n
\"Summary<\/div>\n

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AXGN:NAS<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n Using a discounted cash flow model generates a negative intrinsic value due to one of 1) zero or negative projected cash flows 2) excessive capital expenditures or 3) excessive debt to calculated equity value for AXGN:NAS<\/strong>. We have not shown the calculated value here for that reason.<\/p>\n

Sensitivity Analysis<\/h4>\n

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
AXGN:NAS<\/th>\nCurrent Values<\/th>\nValuation If Dropped *<\/th>\nValuation If Raised *<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Calculated Value:<\/th>\n<\/th>\n1%<\/th>\n5%<\/th>\n1%<\/th>\n5%<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
WACC (or Ke)<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Terminal Growth Rate<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tax Rate<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash Flow<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Capital Expenditures<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Long Term Debt<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Comparables Model<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $8.90 (USD)<\/strong> for AXGN:NAS<\/strong>. We also generated a valuation of $26.34 (USD)<\/strong> using other metrics and comparables.
\n The comparable companies were Conmed (CNMD:NAS), Inogen (INGN:NAS), NuVasive (NUVA:NAS), Nevro (NVRO:NYS) and Penumbra (PEN:NYS)\n <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Company AXGN:NAS<\/th>\nEnd Date Value<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash\/Share<\/td>\n$1.10 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Book Value\/Share<\/td>\n$0.73 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MarketCap<\/td>\n1,136,671,339<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1 Year Return<\/td>\n2.184<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NetPPE<\/td>\n2,197,039<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Price Based on Comps<\/th>\nAdjustment Factor (%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
$38.94 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$4.84 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$73.21 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$12.32 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$2.37 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ratios Used<\/th>\nAverage Values<\/th>\nCNMD:NAS<\/th>\nINGN:NAS<\/th>\nNUVA:NAS<\/th>\nNVRO:NYS<\/th>\nPEN:NYS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash \/ Share<\/td>\n2.39<\/span><\/td>\n1.16<\/td>\n6.56<\/td>\n1.31<\/td>\n1.46<\/td>\n1.47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Book Value \/ Share<\/td>\n12.77<\/span><\/td>\n20.91<\/td>\n9.83<\/td>\n14.21<\/td>\n8.29<\/td>\n10.60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Market Cap<\/td>\n2,439,489,757<\/span><\/td>\n1,426,639,171<\/td>\n2,061,761,141<\/td>\n3,255,871,763<\/td>\n2,417,773,427<\/td>\n3,035,403,284<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1 Year Return<\/td>\n0.19<\/span><\/td>\n0.47<\/td>\n0.67<\/td>\n-0.37<\/td>\n-0.17<\/td>\n0.37<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Net PPE<\/td>\n78,275,200<\/span><\/td>\n116,229,000<\/td>\n20,103,000<\/td>\n215,326,000<\/td>\n8,819,000<\/td>\n30,899,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
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Multiples<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $17.57 (USD)<\/strong> for AXGN:NAS<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Company AXGN:NAS<\/th>\nEnd Date Value<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Earnings\/Share<\/td>\n($0.31) (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Book Value\/Share<\/td>\n$0.73 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sales\/Share<\/td>\n$1.81 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cash Flow\/Share<\/td>\n($0.28) (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EBITDA\/Share<\/td>\n($0.22) (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Price Based on Comps<\/th>\nAdjustment Factor<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.00 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$24.38 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$10.76 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.00 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.00 (USD)<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ratios<\/th>\nRatio Average<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
PE Ratio<\/td>\n0.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PB Ratio<\/td>\n33.40<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PS Ratio<\/td>\n5.93<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PCF Ratio<\/td>\n0.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EV to EBITDA<\/td>\n0.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AXGN:NAS<\/strong> for the last 10 years was  29.95<\/strong>
\n
We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AXGN:NAS<\/strong> and generated a book value of  $0.73 (USD)<\/strong>
\n By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $21.95 (USD)<\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n

\n
\n

Analyst Data<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AXGN:NAS<\/strong>. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AXGN:NAS<\/strong> for 2018 of $37.00 (USD)<\/strong>.<\/p><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n
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Company Overview (AXGN:NAS USD)<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Price<\/td>\n32.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Range<\/td>\n32.30 – 34.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
52 week<\/td>\n9.70 – 33.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Open<\/td>\n33.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vol \/ Avg.<\/td>\n485207\/25213<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mkt cap<\/td>\n1.1B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P\/E<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div\/yield<\/td>\n0.00\/0.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EPS<\/td>\n-0.31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shares<\/td>\n33.39M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beta<\/td>\n0.07<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\"Summary\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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Detailed Company Description<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

AxoGen Inc is a medical technology company dedicated to peripheral nerve repair. It provide products and education to improve surgical treatment algorithms for peripheral nerve injuries.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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\n

Explanation of Valuation Models<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
\n The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)<\/span> valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
\n The Price Comparables<\/span> valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
\n We have included the Other Comparables<\/span> as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash\/Share, Book Value\/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
\n Multiples<\/span> are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
\n With Adjusted Book Value (ABV)<\/span> we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
\n If we have Analyst coverage<\/span> for the company we use the consensus target price here.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n

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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Print This Report was generated using the tools available on StockCalc.com. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. emphasizes that the user assumes all risks associated with the use of this report or the Stockcalc website including, but not limited to, all …<\/p>\n

AxoGen (AXGN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report<\/span> Read More »<\/a><\/p>\nRead More<\/i><\/a>","protected":false},"author":288,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3],"tags":[12,1947,1946,1949,10,1948,29,30,8,1951,1950,9,1954,1953,1952,1955,56,437,436,6],"class_list":["post-1419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fundamental-valuation-report","tag-adjusted-book-value","tag-axgn","tag-axogen","tag-cnmd","tag-comps","tag-conmed","tag-dcf","tag-discounted-cash-flow","tag-fundamental-analysis","tag-ingn","tag-inogen","tag-intrinsic-value","tag-nevro","tag-nuva","tag-nuvasive","tag-nvro","tag-overvalued","tag-pen","tag-penumbra","tag-valuation"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9s44y-mT","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/288"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1419"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1419\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1459,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1419\/revisions\/1459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stockcalc.com\/blog\/Reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}