Burlington Stores (BURL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Burlington Stores(BURL:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$149.02 (USD) 21/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$171.33 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 15.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $166.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $180.37 (USD)
Multiples: $167.22 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BURL:NYS USD)

Price 149.02
Range 148.07 – 150.00
52 week 127.91 – 175.74
Open 148.16
Vol / Avg. 963445/2.05M
Mkt cap 10B
P/E 24.67
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 6.04
Shares 67.08M
Beta 0.15

Company Description

The third- largest American off-price apparel and home fashion retail firm (with 629 stores as of the end of fiscal 2017), Burlington Stores offers an assortment of products from over 5,000 brands through an everyday low price approach that undercuts conventional retailers’ regular prices by up to 65%. The company focuses on providing a treasure hunt experience, with a quickly changing array of merchandise in a relatively low-frills shopping environment. In fiscal 2017, 23% of sales came from women’s ready-to-wear apparel, 22% from accessories and footwear, 20% from menswear, 16% from youth apparel and baby, 14% from home décor, and 5% from coats. All sales come from the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BURL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $201.68 (USD) for BURL:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BURL:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $201.68 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 4.41 $268.14 $159.83
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $163.18 $262.74
Tax Rate 0.18 $215.63 $187.73
Cash Flow 1,025,200,000 $187.66 $215.69
Capital Expenditures -231,302,200 $198.76 $204.60
Long Term Debt 1,353,342,000 $202.69 $200.67

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $180.37 (USD) for BURL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $152.00 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Dollar General (DG:NYS), Dollar Tree (DLTR:NAS) and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI:NAS).

Company BURL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.04 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.88 (USD)
Sales/Share $95.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $11.38 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$136.91 (USD) 57.0
$13.76 (USD) 0.0
$226.61 (USD) 2.1
$256.80 (USD) -22.8
$209.11 (USD) 19.3
BURL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values DG:NYS DLTR:NAS OLLI:NAS
25.00 PE Ratio 22.67 17.55 13.07 37.38
58.94 PB Ratio 4.78 4.90 3.19 6.24
1.77 PS Ratio 2.36 1.27 1.00 4.82
15.37 PCF Ratio 24.55 14.62 11.67 47.37
16.15 EV to EBITDA 18.38 13.29 10.51 31.33

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $167.22 (USD) for BURL:NYS

Company BURL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.04 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.88 (USD)
Sales/Share $95.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $11.38 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$179.22 (USD) 0
$235.76 (USD) 0
$105.71 (USD) 0
$156.40 (USD) 0
$158.99 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 29.67
PB Ratio 81.86
PS Ratio 1.10
PCF Ratio 14.16
EV to EBITDA 13.97

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BURL:NYS for the last 0 years was  76.48

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BURL:NYS and generated a book value of  $4.81 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $367.60 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for BURL:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for BURL:NYS for 2020 of $166.67 (USD).

BURL:NYS Burlington Stores

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 1 3.2500 Hold 2019-3-20

Current Price: 149.02 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 7.07 7.95 9.04
# EPS Analysts 4 3 2
Mean Revenue 7,245.30 7,860.10 8,333.80
# Revenue Analysts 4 3 2
Mean Target Price 166.67
Mean Cash Flow 11.10 11.96 13.59
Mean EBITDA 863.40 946.50 1,025.20
Mean Net Income 480.10 531.40 579.90
Mean Debt Outstanding 747.80 587.00 402.00
Mean Tax Rate 21.40 22.00
Mean Growth Rate 17.59
Mean Capital Expenditure 297.90 297.10 312.60

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Gap (GPS:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Gap(GPS:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$25.12 (USD) 21/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$29.17 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 16.1%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $29.17 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (GPS:NYS USD)

Price 25.12
Range 24.90 – 25.30
52 week 24.60 – 33.75
Open 25.30
Vol / Avg. 4.13M/8.61M
Mkt cap 9.51B
P/E 9.70
Div/yield 0.97/0.04
EPS 2.59
Shares 378.6M
Beta 0.53

Company Description

Gap is a global apparel and accessories retailer for men, women, and children operating under the brand names of Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, Athleta, and Intermix. Distribution channels include about 3,200 specialty and outlet stores, online, and franchises. About 80% of revenue is generated in the United States, and just under 80% of revenue comes from the Gap and Old Navy brands.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for GPS:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $42.12 (USD) for GPS:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

GPS:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $42.12 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.49 $54.03 $34.20
Terminal Growth Rate 1.50 $34.91 $52.93
Tax Rate 0.24 $45.62 $38.61
Cash Flow 1,861,205,500 $38.52 $45.71
Capital Expenditures -642,600,000 $40.97 $43.27
Long Term Debt 1,745,000,000 $42.35 $41.89

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $43.18 (USD) for GPS:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $51.93 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were American Eagle Outfitters (AEO:NYS), L Brands (LB:NYS), Lululemon Athletica (LULU:NAS), Ross Stores (ROST:NAS) and Urban Outfitters (URBN:NAS).

Company GPS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.59 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $42.73 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.56 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.09 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$59.77 (USD) -53.1
$70.80 (USD) 7.8
$50.28 (USD) -31.6
$46.86 (USD) -29.3
$62.59 (USD) -29.6
GPS:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AEO:NYS LB:NYS LULU:NAS ROST:NAS URBN:NAS
9.81 PE Ratio 23.08 13.08 11.32 52.78 22.31 15.90
2.70 PB Ratio 7.53 2.72 0.00 14.16 11.03 2.23
0.59 PS Ratio 2.27 0.91 0.55 6.65 2.38 0.87
7.14 PCF Ratio 14.07 8.10 5.69 30.05 18.11 8.40
5.05 EV to EBITDA 12.31 6.01 10.24 25.69 13.98 5.63

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $30.84 (USD) for GPS:NYS

Company GPS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.59 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $42.73 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.56 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.09 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$34.72 (USD) 0
$35.98 (USD) 0
$29.76 (USD) 0
$26.40 (USD) 0
$27.36 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 13.40
PB Ratio 3.83
PS Ratio 0.70
PCF Ratio 7.42
EV to EBITDA 5.38

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  GPS:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.81

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  GPS:NYS and generated a book value of  $9.40 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $35.79 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for GPS:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for GPS:NYS for 2020 of $29.17 (USD).

GPS:NYS Gap

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 4 0 3.2000 Hold 2019-3-20

Current Price: 25.12 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 2.52 2.56 2.54
# EPS Analysts 4 4 1
Mean Revenue 16,871.70 17,074.90 16,926.80
# Revenue Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Target Price 29.17
Mean Cash Flow 4.34 4.33 4.43
Mean EBITDA 1,909.90 1,928.00 1,833.70
Mean Net Income 960.50 962.40 920.70
Mean Debt Outstanding -352.80 -399.10 30.90
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 3.49
Mean Capital Expenditure 763.70 802.20 846.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Michaels Companies (MIK:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Michaels Companies(MIK:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Specialty Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$11.92 (USD) 21/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$18.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 51.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $18.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (MIK:NAS USD)

Price 11.92
Range 11.65 – 12.12
52 week 11.68 – 21.93
Open 11.99
Vol / Avg. 3.98M/2.82M
Mkt cap 1.88B
P/E 6.41
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.86
Shares 157.77M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

The Michaels Companies Inc is an arts and crafts specialty retailer in North America. The company provides materials, project ideas, and education for creative activities like crafting classes, store events, store displays, mobile applications, and online videos. The company sells merchandise through two stores: Michaels and Aaron Brothers. Michaels’ revenue segments are general crafts, home decor and seasonal, framing, and paper crafting. Aaron Brothers offer unique framing assortments. The company operates its own distribution network through a wholly owned subsidiary to supply merchandise in the stores.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MIK:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $57.72 (USD) for MIK:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MIK:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $57.72 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.96 $77.19 $44.79
Terminal Growth Rate 1.00 $45.93 $75.47
Tax Rate 0.23 $63.08 $52.35
Cash Flow 976,385,751 $53.13 $62.31
Capital Expenditures -129,919,800 $57.15 $58.29
Long Term Debt 2,802,087,000 $58.61 $56.83

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $19.63 (USD) for MIK:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $27.24 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY:NAS), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS:NYS), Five Below (FIVE:NAS), KAR Auction Services (KAR:NYS) and Murphy USA (MUSA:NYS).

Company MIK:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($11.34) (USD)
Sales/Share $30.29 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.02 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$38.53 (USD) -59.1
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$43.23 (USD) -38.8
$17.49 (USD) -60.3
$44.54 (USD) -19.8
MIK:NAS Ratios Used Average Values BBBY:NAS DKS:NYS FIVE:NAS KAR:NYS MUSA:NYS
7.52 PE Ratio 20.72 7.40 11.91 52.79 19.48 12.00
0.00 PB Ratio 4.61 0.79 2.08 12.78 4.28 3.11
0.47 PS Ratio 1.43 0.18 0.46 4.62 1.70 0.18
5.66 PCF Ratio 13.33 2.20 5.05 44.41 8.53 6.43
6.58 EV to EBITDA 11.09 3.18 5.22 30.55 9.58 6.92

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $27.25 (USD) for MIK:NAS

Company MIK:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($11.34) (USD)
Sales/Share $30.29 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.02 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$24.58 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$27.07 (USD) 0
$21.64 (USD) 0
$35.73 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 13.22
PB Ratio 0.00
PS Ratio 0.89
PCF Ratio 8.67
EV to EBITDA 8.89

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MIK:NAS for the last 0 years was  0.00

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MIK:NAS and generated a book value of  ($10.31) (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for MIK:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for MIK:NAS for 2020 of $18.00 (USD).

MIK:NAS Michaels Companies

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-3-20

Current Price: 11.92 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021
Mean EPS 2.41 2.53
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 5,226.20 5,348.80
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 18.00
Mean Cash Flow 3.30 3.48
Mean EBITDA 820.70 846.90
Mean Net Income 379.90 395.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 2,197.60 1,916.10
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 160.00 160.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Merck & Co (MRK:NYS) and Eli Lilly (LLY:NYS) Upgraded

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/toppicks.aspx.

Upgraded Stocks on NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX, TSE, and TSX

Today we are looking at companies whose share price has been upgraded by at least one analyst in the last few days.

Why Do Companies Get Upgraded?

Companies can get upgraded for a number of reasons, but primarily due to improved future earnings potential due to new contracts, new products, cost savings or restructuring.

In the list below you can see the number of analysts we have in the StockCalc database along with the number of buy-hold-sell on the company.

Today’s Data on NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX, TSE, and TSX

Below we have today’s data for companies listed on all of the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange, Toronto Stock Exchange, and TSX Venture Exchange.

New York Stock Exchange
Symbol Name Buy Out Perform Hold Under Perform Sell No Opinion Mean Rating Prev Mean Rating Mean Label
MRK Merck & Co Inc 5 0 1 0 0 0 4.6667 4.5000 Buy
LLY Eli Lilly and Co 3 0 2 1 0 0 3.8333 3.6000 Outperform
CP Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd 11 6 1 0 0 0 4.5556 4.5263 Buy
EQH AXA Equitable Holdings Inc 1 0 0 0 0 0 5.0000 4.0000 Buy
TAC TransAlta Corp 0 1 10 0 0 0 3.0909 2.9091 Hold
Toronto Stock Exchange
Symbol Name Buy Out Perform Hold Under Perform Sell No Opinion Mean Rating Prev Mean Rating Mean Label
CP Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd 11 6 1 0 0 0 4.5556 4.5263 Buy
BBD.B Bombardier Inc 6 7 0 0 0 0 4.4615 4.4286 Outperform
BBD.A Bombardier Inc 6 7 0 0 0 0 4.4615 4.4286 Outperform
NPI Northland Power Inc 5 1 1 0 0 0 4.5714 4.5000 Buy
TFII TFI International Inc 5 4 3 0 0 0 4.1667 4.1538 Outperform
LNR Linamar Corp 1 1 2 0 0 0 3.7500 3.6667 Outperform
TA TransAlta Corp 0 1 10 0 0 0 3.0909 2.9091 Hold
BYD.UN Boyd Group Income Fund 5 6 0 0 0 0 4.4545 4.3333 Outperform
ATA ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc 1 2 1 0 0 0 4.0000 3.8333 Outperform
ESI Ensign Energy Services Inc 4 2 1 0 1 0 4.0000 3.7500 Outperform
CEU CES Energy Solutions Corp 8 3 1 0 0 0 4.5833 4.5000 Buy
CMG Computer Modelling Group Ltd 1 1 3 0 2 0 2.8571 2.6250 Hold
ISV Information Services Corp 0 1 1 0 0 0 3.5000 3.3333 Hold
CRH CRH Medical Corp 6 4 0 0 0 0 4.6000 4.4545 Buy
TRZ Transat A.T. Inc 0 3 3 0 1 0 3.1429 3.1250 Hold
CPH Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc 3 1 1 0 0 0 4.4000 4.2000 Outperform
TSX Venture Exchange
Symbol Name Buy Out Perform Hold Under Perform Sell No Opinion Mean Rating Prev Mean Rating Mean Label
BGM Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd 3 4 0 0 0 0 4.4286 4.3333 Outperform
BSR Bluestone Resources Inc 2 1 0 0 0 0 4.6667 4.5000 Buy
AT AcuityAds Holdings Inc 2 2 0 0 0 0 4.5000 4.3333 Outperform
ITR Integra Resources Corp 1 2 0 0 0 0 4.3333 4.0000 Outperform
American Stock Exchange
Symbol Name Buy Out Perform Hold Under Perform Sell No Opinion Mean Rating Prev Mean Rating Mean Label
CRHM CRH Medical Corp 6 4 0 0 0 0 4.6000 4.4545 Buy
NASDAQ
Symbol Name Buy Out Perform Hold Under Perform Sell No Opinion Mean Rating Prev Mean Rating Mean Label
AMED Amedisys Inc 2 0 2 0 0 0 4.0000 3.8000 Outperform
NGHC National General Holdings Corp 1 0 0 0 0 0 5.0000 0.0000 Buy
ACHC Acadia Healthcare Co Inc 1 0 2 0 0 0 3.6667 3.5000 Outperform
CCRN Cross Country Healthcare Inc 1 0 3 0 0 0 3.5000 3.4000 Hold
SND Smart Sand Inc 1 0 0 0 0 0 5.0000 4.0000 Buy

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

MRK:NYS Merck & Co

https://www.merck.com
Merck & Co has 69000 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Merck & Co Inc is a health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies and animal health products.

LLY:NYS Eli Lilly

http://www.lilly.com
Eli Lilly has 38680 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Eli Lilly and Co is a pharmaceutical company with a focus on neuroscience, endocrinology, oncology, and immunology. It discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells human pharmaceutical products and animal health products.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH:NYS) and Lockheed Martin (LMT:NYS) Are Undervalued

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Undervalued Stocks on NYSE

Today we are looking at companies that are considered undervalued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In the table below we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on NYSE

Today’s data is for companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc 2019 250.500000 307.8000 USD 5
BA Boeing Co 2019 376.160000 450.6667 USD 6
LMT Lockheed Martin Corp 2019 295.980000 338.2500 USD 4
ANTM Anthem Inc 2019 303.010000 365.2500 USD 4
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc 2019 194.320000 237.4000 USD 5
BLK BlackRock Inc 2019 429.920000 508.5000 USD 2
CI Cigna Corp 2019 167.870000 245.6000 USD 5
HUM Humana Inc 2019 275.310000 348.5000 USD 4
STZ Constellation Brands Inc 2020 164.600000 222.6000 USD 5
STZ.B Constellation Brands Inc 2020 167.850000 222.6000 USD 5
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Co 2019 144.440000 207.1667 USD 6
SHOP Shopify Inc 2019 201.340000 257.4382 CAD 9
CXO Concho Resources Inc 2019 109.630000 159.4000 USD 5
FNV Franco-Nevada Corp 2019 74.110000 113.8286 CAD 13
MKL Markel Corp 2019 987.880000 1300.0000 USD 1
IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc 2019 122.540000 166.5000 USD 2
WCG WellCare Health Plans Inc 2019 243.980000 330.0000 USD 1
URI United Rentals Inc 2019 116.110000 168.0000 USD 2
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc 2019 204.750000 246.0000 USD 4
LEA Lear Corp 2019 135.090000 187.2500 USD 4
GRUB GrubHub Inc 2019 68.850000 110.6000 USD 5
HHC The Howard Hughes Corp 2019 108.690000 162.5000 USD 2
GEF.B Greif Inc 2019 45.560000 99.0000 USD 1
USNA Usana Health Sciences Inc 2019 87.240000 135.0000 USD 1
MED Medifast Inc 2019 131.780000 250.0000 USD 1

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

UNH:NYS UnitedHealth Group

http://www.unitedhealthgroup.com
UnitedHealth Group has 300000 employees and is headquartered in United States.
UnitedHealth Group Inc is a diversified health care company in the United States. It designs products, provides services and applies technologies that improve access to health and well-being services, and make health care more affordable.

LMT:NYS Lockheed Martin

http://www.lockheedmartin.com
Lockheed Martin has 105000 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Lockheed Martin Corp is a security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP:ASE) and Senseonics Holdings (SENS:ASE) Are Fully Valued

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Fully Valued Stocks on AMEX

Today we are looking at companies that are considered fully valued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In this table we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on AMEX

Today’s data is for companies listed on the American Stock Exchange.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
CQP Cheniere Energy Partners LP 2019 43.200000 40.0000 USD 4
SENS Senseonics Holdings Inc 2019 2.720000 2.3750 USD 2
NBY NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Inc 2019 1.370000 1.2500 USD 1

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

CQP:ASE Cheniere Energy Partners

http://www.cheniereenergypartners.com
Cheniere Energy Partners has 1372 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Cheniere Energy Partners LP engages in the liquified natural gas export business. The firm operates through its Sabine Pass liquefaction/terminal/pipeline facilities in Louisiana.

SENS:ASE Senseonics Holdings

http://www.senseonics.com
Senseonics Holdings has 192 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Senseonics Holdings Inc is a medical technology company engaged in designing, development and commercialization of glucose monitoring systems for diabetes patients.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

DPW Holdings (DPW:ASE) and Zomedica Pharmaceuticals (ZOM:ASE) Are Biggest Stock Decliners YTD on AMEX

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Biggest Stock Decliners Year to Date on AMEX

Today we are looking at companies that have had the greatest percentage decrease in share price year to date.

Bottom 25 Companies

Lists like these are always interesting to look at as they tell more than one story. Companies that are experiencing dramatic decreases in share price can do so for a variety of reasons including, the sector they are in has turned (such as companies in an unfavorable commodities space or a sector that has been disrupted), or the company is experiencing financial difficulties generally due to an inability to service its debt.

In this list we have selected the top 25 companies based on their percentage decrease in share price year to date.

Today’s Data on AMEX

Today’s data is for companies listed on the American Stock Exchange.

Symbol Name Total Return Period
DPW DPW Holdings Inc -70.536585 YTD
CEI Camber Energy Inc -62.991597 YTD
ZOM Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp -47.756098 YTD
BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp -45.878848 YTD
RNN Rexahn Pharmaceuticals Inc -41.301075 YTD
CAW CCA Industries Inc -40.454545 YTD
FTNW FTE Networks Inc -36.752137 YTD
GSAT Globalstar Inc -31.968110 YTD
MNI The McClatchy Co -30.326797 YTD
OGEN Oragenics Inc -28.970657 YTD
RHE Regional Health Properties Inc -25.641312 YTD
UAMY United States Antimony Corp -25.000000 YTD
XXII 22nd Century Group Inc -23.694779 YTD
ZDGE Zedge Inc -23.202614 YTD
YUMA Yuma Energy Inc -21.333333 YTD
PLM PolyMet Mining Corp -17.866831 YTD
SIF SIFCO Industries Inc -16.811594 YTD
GSV Gold Standard Ventures Corp -16.800000 YTD
LBY Libbey Inc -16.752577 YTD
EMAN eMagin Corp -14.563107 YTD
HLTH Nobilis Health Corp -14.166667 YTD
CCF Chase Corp -12.943528 YTD
MYO Myomo Inc -12.500000 YTD
WTT Wireless Telecom Group Inc -12.429379 YTD
COHN Cohen & Co Inc -11.032028 YTD

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

DPW:ASE DPW Holdings

https://www.dpwholdings.com
DPW Holdings has 77 employees and is headquartered in United States.
DPW Holdings Inc through its subsidiary provides mission-critical applications and lifesaving services to targets markets that are of high barrier to enter with products and services which are not likely to be commoditized.

ZOM:ASE Zomedica Pharmaceuticals

http://www.zomedica.com
Zomedica Pharmaceuticals has 27 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp is a pharmaceutical company. It is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of pharmaceuticals for the companion pet.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Fortress Blockchain (FORT:TSX) and Liberty One Lithium (LBY:TSX) Trading at Less than Cash Value

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Trading at Less than Cash Value

Today we are looking at companies trading at less than cash value meaning companies whose current share price is less than the cash per share on the balance sheet. We also show the value of cash net debt per share to show how much cash per share would be left if the debt was paid off.

What this Means…

Companies can have more cash per share than the actual share price for a number of reasons including they just raised capital, are in industries that experience high burn rates and will eat through the cash quickly or if there is a lot of uncertainty about the future of the company. Companies earning a positive net income will have a P/E greater than 0 and are worth exploring in more detail.

Today’s Data on TSX

Today’s data is for companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Symbol Name Close Price Shares Outstanding P/E P/B Cash per Share Net Cash per Share
BOE GrowMax Resources Corp 0.105000 213925645 None 0.2898 0.15 0.26
CLH Coral Gold Resources Ltd 0.385000 48000000 20.8221 0.8164 0.39 0.03
DMGI DMG Blockchain Solutions Inc 0.180000 100922558 None 0.4481 0.18 0.05
GMN GobiMin Inc 0.240000 49992482 None 0.1195 0.33 0.34
FORT Fortress Blockchain Corp 0.125000 71177984 None 0.4334 0.15 None
LBY Liberty One Lithium Corp 0.120000 66628333 None 0.8956 0.12 0.06
BAT Batero Gold Corp 0.060000 115182383 None 0.3698 0.08 None
ICL Itasca Capital Ltd 0.300000 21810626 1.0179 0.2617 0.63 None
LND Inspira Financial Inc 0.130000 45841454 None 0.5160 0.20 0.20
ACE.H ACE Aviation Holdings Inc 0.180000 32475000 None None 0.35 2.19
GLW Galway Gold Inc 0.120000 41627979 None 0.5603 0.16 None
CZQ.H Continental Precious Minerals Inc 0.355000 11706896 None 0.8037 0.44 None
AET Aethon Minerals Corp 0.130000 27633333 None 0.2945 0.19 None
SAT Asian Television Network International Ltd 0.130000 24402914 None 0.5081 0.14 0.13
BITK BlockchainK2 Corp 0.185000 15901625 None 0.8593 0.21 0.00
HOC Hunter Oil Corp 0.220000 13260871 None 1.0397 0.30 0.28
RRR.UN R&R Real Estate Investment Trust 0.090000 32394304 None 0.1221 0.21 -1.00
ITG Intact Gold Corp 0.080000 18182651 None 0.6861 0.10 0.09
TLK Frankly Inc 0.420000 2656917 None None 1.09 -6.70
CBV Cobra Venture Corp 0.070000 15903748 None 0.3440 0.14 -0.01
VIC.P Victory Capital Corp 0.100000 5088750 None 0.8922 0.12 None
POC Pacific Iron Ore Corp 0.075000 6737858 None 0.2297 0.08 0.13
FCO Fabled Copper Corp 0.075000 1435331 None 1.0856 0.12 None
FAU.H Fire River Gold Corp. 0.090000 3161570 None None 0.10 0.00
BCO.H British Controlled Oilfields Ltd 0.650000 4068563 None None 0.85 None

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

FORT:TSX Fortress Blockchain

http://www.fortressblockchain.io
Fortress Blockchain has None employees and is headquartered in Canada.
Focused Capital II Corp is a capital pool company.

LBY:TSX Liberty One Lithium

http://www.libertyonelithium.com
Liberty One Lithium has None employees and is headquartered in Canada.
Liberty One Lithium Corp is an exploration company engaged in the acquisition and development of lithium brine deposits. The company’s properties include Pocitos West Project in Argentina and North Paradox in the United States.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

JC Penney Co (JCP:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

JC Penney Co(JCP:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Department Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$1.64 (USD) 20/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$0.85 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 48.2%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $0.85 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (JCP:NYS USD)

Price 1.64
Range 1.63 – 1.72
52 week 0.97 – 3.51
Open 1.69
Vol / Avg. 4.49M/14.13M
Mkt cap 518.82M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.81
Shares 316.35M
Beta 1.09

Company Description

JC Penney Co Inc is an American omnichannel retailer. It sells merchandise and services to consumers through department stores and its own website. The product portfolio mainly comprises apparel and footwear, accessories, fine and fashion jewelry, home furnishings, and beauty products (the latter through Sephora inside JC Penney). JC Penney offers private, exclusive, and national brands across the United States and Puerto Rico.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for JCP:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $19.88 (USD) for JCP:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

JCP:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $19.88 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.03 $28.54 $14.09
Terminal Growth Rate 2.00 $14.66 $27.69
Tax Rate 0.06 $21.46 $18.30
Cash Flow 536,416,693 $18.39 $21.37
Capital Expenditures 0 $19.88 $19.88
Long Term Debt 4,725,000,000 $20.63 $19.13

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $4.26 (USD) for JCP:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $5.01 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and Dillard’s (DDS:NYS).

Company JCP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.81) (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.70 (USD)
Sales/Share $38.07 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.14 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.89 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 27.4
$4.70 (USD) -50.3
$0.00 (USD) -51.9
($6.09) (USD) -33.7
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
JCP:NYS Ratios Used Average Values DDS:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 12.61 12.61
0.41 PB Ratio 1.27 1.27
0.04 PS Ratio 0.33 0.33
1.34 PCF Ratio 5.84 5.84
6.97 EV to EBITDA 5.69 5.69

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $7.54 (USD) for JCP:NYS

Company JCP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.81) (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.70 (USD)
Sales/Share $38.07 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.14 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.89 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$4.62 (USD) 0
$6.21 (USD) 0
$5.76 (USD) 0
$13.57 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 1716.11
PB Ratio 1.25
PS Ratio 0.16
PCF Ratio 5.07
EV to EBITDA 7.16

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  JCP:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.25

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  JCP:NYS and generated a book value of  $3.70 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $4.64 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for JCP:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for JCP:NYS for 2020 of $0.85 (USD).

JCP:NYS JC Penney Co

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 0 2 1.0000 Sell 2019-3-19

Current Price: 1.64 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021
Mean EPS -0.97 -1.08
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 11,849.80 11,675.60
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 0.85
Mean Cash Flow 0.96 0.57
Mean EBITDA 467.30 519.20
Mean Net Income -390.40 -342.50
Mean Debt Outstanding 3,675.20 3,728.10
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 313.50 283.20

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Michaels Companies (MIK:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Michaels Companies(MIK:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Specialty Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$11.99 (USD) 20/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$20.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 66.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $20.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (MIK:NAS USD)

Price 11.99
Range 11.95 – 13.14
52 week 11.68 – 21.93
Open 12.66
Vol / Avg. 5.72M/2.74M
Mkt cap 1.89B
P/E 6.45
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.86
Shares 157.77M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

The Michaels Companies Inc is an arts and crafts specialty retailer in North America. The company provides materials, project ideas, and education for creative activities like crafting classes, store events, store displays, mobile applications, and online videos. The company sells merchandise through two stores: Michaels and Aaron Brothers. Michaels’ revenue segments are general crafts, home decor and seasonal, framing, and paper crafting. Aaron Brothers offer unique framing assortments. The company operates its own distribution network through a wholly owned subsidiary to supply merchandise in the stores.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MIK:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $68.99 (USD) for MIK:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MIK:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $68.99 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.96 $91.44 $54.09
Terminal Growth Rate 1.00 $55.40 $89.45
Tax Rate 0.23 $75.09 $62.89
Cash Flow 1,100,705,788 $63.84 $74.14
Capital Expenditures -129,919,800 $68.42 $69.56
Long Term Debt 2,802,087,000 $69.88 $68.10

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $24.64 (USD) for MIK:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $28.21 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS:NYS), Five Below (FIVE:NAS), KAR Auction Services (KAR:NYS), Murphy USA (MUSA:NYS) and RH (RH:NYS).

Company MIK:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($11.34) (USD)
Sales/Share $30.29 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.02 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$49.13 (USD) -59.1
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$51.93 (USD) -38.8
$23.32 (USD) -60.3
$54.61 (USD) -19.8
MIK:NAS Ratios Used Average Values DKS:NYS FIVE:NAS KAR:NYS MUSA:NYS RH:NYS
7.52 PE Ratio 26.41 11.91 52.79 19.48 12.00 35.89
0.00 PB Ratio 24.80 2.08 12.78 4.28 3.11 101.77
0.47 PS Ratio 1.71 0.46 4.62 1.70 0.18 1.62
5.66 PCF Ratio 15.66 5.05 44.41 8.53 6.43 13.87
6.58 EV to EBITDA 13.59 5.22 30.55 9.58 6.92 15.71

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $27.25 (USD) for MIK:NAS

Company MIK:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($11.34) (USD)
Sales/Share $30.29 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.02 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$24.58 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$27.07 (USD) 0
$21.64 (USD) 0
$35.73 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 13.22
PB Ratio 0.00
PS Ratio 0.89
PCF Ratio 8.67
EV to EBITDA 8.89

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MIK:NAS for the last 0 years was  0.00

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MIK:NAS and generated a book value of  ($10.31) (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for MIK:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for MIK:NAS for 2020 of $20.00 (USD).

MIK:NAS Michaels Companies

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-3-19

Current Price: 11.99 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020
Mean EPS 2.50
# EPS Analysts 1
Mean Revenue 5,287.80
# Revenue Analysts 1
Mean Target Price 20.00
Mean Cash Flow 3.59
Mean EBITDA 836.40
Mean Net Income 395.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 2,300.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 160.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.