AllianceBernstein Holding (AB:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

AllianceBernstein Holding(AB:NYS)

Financial Services:Asset Management

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$29.84 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$26.63 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 10.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $29.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $24.19 (USD)
Comparables: $24.39 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AB:NYS USD)

Price 29.84
Range 29.40 – 30.19
52 week 23.68 – 31.17
Open 29.96
Vol / Avg. 913017/374311
Mkt cap 2.88B
P/E 11.94
Div/yield 2.88/0.10
EPS 2.50
Shares 96.56M
Beta 1.29

Company Description

AllianceBernstein Holding LP provides investment management services to institutional (48% of AUM), retail (35%), and private (17%) clients through a collection of products that includes mutual funds, hedge funds, and separately managed accounts. At the end of December 2018, the firm had $516 billion in managed assets, composed primarily of fixed-income (53% of AUM) and equity (36%) strategies, with other investments (made up of the firm’s asset allocation services and certain other alternative investments) accounting for the remainder. The company also provides sell-side research and brokerage services through its Sanford Bernstein subsidiary. Through its ownership of 72% of the outstanding shares of AXA Equitable Holdings, the French insurer AXA holds a 65% economic interest in AB.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AB:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $588.85 (USD) for AB:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AB:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $588.85 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.97 $664.08 $528.75
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $537.87 $652.63
Tax Rate 0.10 $621.73 $555.98
Cash Flow 6,343,620,549 $559.41 $618.30
Capital Expenditures 0 $588.85 $588.85
Long Term Debt 0 $588.85 $588.85

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $24.39 (USD) for AB:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $24.52 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Ares Management (ARES:NYS), Federated Investors (FII:NYS), Legg Mason Inc-LeggMason (LM:NYS), Moelis & Co (MC:NYS) and Nuveen Municipal Credit (NZF:NYS).

Company AB:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.70 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.78 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$53.77 (USD) -30.3
$42.04 (USD) -56.5
$39.10 (USD) 0.0
$24.54 (USD) -89.1
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
AB:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ARES:NYS FII:NYS LM:NYS MC:NYS NZF:NYS
11.25 PE Ratio 21.51 32.09 11.99 9.06 32.89 0.00
1.98 PB Ratio 2.73 3.57 3.06 0.66 5.40 0.94
10.19 PS Ratio 13.07 1.86 2.23 0.84 2.55 57.87
11.31 PCF Ratio 9.11 0.00 15.89 5.12 6.31 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 10.43 16.25 8.51 8.59 8.36 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $29.39 (USD) for AB:NYS

Company AB:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.70 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.78 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$30.09 (USD) 0
$24.45 (USD) 0
$28.68 (USD) 0
$34.33 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 12.03
PB Ratio 1.59
PS Ratio 9.59
PCF Ratio 12.74
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AB:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.57

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AB:NYS and generated a book value of  $15.43 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $24.19 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AB:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AB:NYS for 2019 of $29.00 (USD).

AB:NYS AllianceBernstein Holding

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 2 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 29.84 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.44 2.54
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 3,093.60 3,396.60
# Revenue Analysts 2 1
Mean Target Price 29.00
Mean Cash Flow 5.52 9.38
Mean EBITDA 565.00
Mean Net Income 232.40 247.10
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 0.64
Mean Capital Expenditure 35.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Aspen Insurance Holdings(AHL:NYS)

Financial Services:Insurance-Reinsurance

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$42.74 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$40.28 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 5.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $42.75 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $36.65 (USD)
Multiples: $40.13 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AHL:NYS USD)

Price 42.74
Range 42.73 – 42.75
52 week 35.05 – 45.35
Open 42.74
Vol / Avg. 20.69M/2M
Mkt cap 2.56B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.72/0.02
EPS -2.97
Shares 59.86M
Beta 0.16

Company Description

Aspen Insurance Holdings is a Bermudian insurance and reinsurance company. The company operates through subsidiaries that include Aspen Insurance UK, Aspen Underwriting, Aspen Bermuda, Aspen Specialty Insurance, and Aspen American Insurance Corporation. Aspen UK also has branches in Europe, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Australia, and Canada. The company’s business is divided into two segments: Aspen Insurance and Aspen Reinsurance. Aspen Insurance consists of property and casualty insurance, marine, aviation and energy insurance, and financial and professional lines insurance. Aspen Reinsurance comprises property reinsurance, casualty reinsurance, and specialty reinsurance.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AHL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($11.95) (USD) for AHL:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $32.99 (USD) for AHL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $58.66 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Everest Re Group (RE:NYS), RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR:NYS) and Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE:NYS).

Company AHL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.97) (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.41 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($6.41) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.18) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -36.0
$47.20 (USD) -22.1
$55.96 (USD) -47.8
($7.12) (USD) -75.8
$0.00 (USD) 70.9
AHL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values RE:NYS RNR:NYS TPRE:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 28.14 8.52 28.11 47.77
0.90 PB Ratio 1.02 1.07 1.33 0.66
1.07 PS Ratio 6.50 1.20 16.64 1.66
0.00 PCF Ratio 8.79 13.46 4.12 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $40.13 (USD) for AHL:NYS

Company AHL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.97) (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.41 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($6.41) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.18) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$38.47 (USD) 0
$41.79 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 9.90
PB Ratio 0.83
PS Ratio 1.07
PCF Ratio 6.01
EV to EBITDA 4.36

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AHL:NYS for the last 10 years was  0.83

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AHL:NYS and generated a book value of  $44.40 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $36.65 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AHL:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AHL:NYS for 2019 of $42.75 (USD).

AHL:NYS Aspen Insurance Holdings

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 42.74 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.47 3.87
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 2,333.50 2,431.20
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 42.75
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 177.80 227.70
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Amgen (AMGN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Amgen(AMGN:NAS)

Healthcare:Drug Manufacturers-Major

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$186.68 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$191.24 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 2.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $206.20 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $170.41 (USD)
Multiples: $188.05 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AMGN:NAS USD)

Price 186.68
Range 185.76 – 187.80
52 week 166.05 – 208.89
Open 187.59
Vol / Avg. 2.55M/3.39M
Mkt cap 116.17B
P/E 14.79
Div/yield 5.28/0.03
EPS 12.62
Shares 622.28M
Beta 1.21

Company Description

Amgen is a leader in biotechnology-based human therapeutics, with historical expertise in renal disease and cancer supportive care products. Flagship drugs include red blood cell boosters Epogen and Aranesp, immune system boosters Neupogen and Neulasta, and Enbrel for inflammatory diseases. Amgen introduced its first cancer therapeutic, Vectibix, in 2006 and received approval for bone-strengthening drug Prolia/Xgeva in 2010. Amgen’s acquisition of Onyx bolstered the firm’s therapeutic oncology portfolio with Nexavar and Kyprolis. Recent launches include Repatha (cholesterol-lowering) and Aimovig (migraine).

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AMGN:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $245.66 (USD) for AMGN:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AMGN:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $245.66 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.68 $309.72 $200.76
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $205.67 $302.72
Tax Rate 0.12 $260.05 $231.27
Cash Flow 11,455,454,000 $232.51 $258.81
Capital Expenditures -617,800,000 $245.04 $246.28
Long Term Debt 35,323,000,000 $248.50 $242.82

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $170.41 (USD) for AMGN:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $295.75 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Biogen (BIIB:NAS), Celgene (CELG:NAS) and Gilead Sciences (GILD:NAS).

Company AMGN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $12.62 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.85 (USD)
Sales/Share $35.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $16.99 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$374.00 (USD) -32.2
$143.85 (USD) -67.5
$160.36 (USD) 51.7
$156.28 (USD) -11.6
$176.00 (USD) 0.0
AMGN:NAS Ratios Used Average Values BIIB:NAS CELG:NAS GILD:NAS
14.83 PE Ratio 29.64 15.47 16.05 57.39
9.42 PB Ratio 7.25 5.05 12.76 3.93
5.24 PS Ratio 4.49 5.09 4.25 4.13
11.02 PCF Ratio 12.20 11.79 14.37 10.45
11.19 EV to EBITDA 9.08 10.28 9.27 7.71

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $188.05 (USD) for AMGN:NAS

Company AMGN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $12.62 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.85 (USD)
Sales/Share $35.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $16.99 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$233.72 (USD) 0
$84.66 (USD) 0
$203.97 (USD) 0
$215.54 (USD) 0
$202.36 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.52
PB Ratio 4.26
PS Ratio 5.71
PCF Ratio 12.69
EV to EBITDA 10.45

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AMGN:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.25

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AMGN:NAS and generated a book value of  $19.85 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $84.37 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for AMGN:NAS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for AMGN:NAS for 2019 of $206.20 (USD).

AMGN:NAS Amgen

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 6 0 3.5000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 186.68 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 14.04 14.48 14.53
# EPS Analysts 8 5 4
Mean Revenue 22,613.10 22,195.80 22,112.00
# Revenue Analysts 5 4 4
Mean Target Price 206.20
Mean Cash Flow 16.11 17.82 19.05
Mean EBITDA 11,789.20 11,394.50 11,121.80
Mean Net Income 8,955.20 9,796.10 10,116.50
Mean Debt Outstanding -12,418.20 -15,692.60 -21,308.10
Mean Tax Rate 14.25 13.75 13.75
Mean Growth Rate 3.28
Mean Capital Expenditure 734.70 798.60 849.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Antero Midstream GP (AMGP:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Antero Midstream GP(AMGP:NYS)

Energy:Oil & Gas Midstream

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$13.54 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$14.68 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 8.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $15.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $14.20 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AMGP:NYS USD)

Price 13.54
Range 13.17 – 13.71
52 week 10.53 – 20.52
Open 13.25
Vol / Avg. 1.79M/1.23M
Mkt cap 2.52B
P/E 41.08
Div/yield 0.45/0.04
EPS 0.33
Shares 186.24M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

ASV Holdings Inc is a designer and manufacturer of a broad range of high quality compact track loader (CTL) and skid steer loader (SSL) equipments. CTLs are compact tracked vehicles with lift arms that function particularly well in wet, muddy, snowy or harsh conditions and where there are slopes and grades, such as in a construction, agriculture or forestry environment. SSLs are wheeled vehicles with lift arms that can be outfitted with the same attachments as CTLs and can therefore be used in most of the same applications. It also serves as a private label original equipment manufacturer for several manufacturers. The company’s markets through a distribution network in North America, Australia and New Zealand under the ASV and Terex brands.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AMGP:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $18.43 (USD) for AMGP:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AMGP:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $18.43 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 16.63 $20.07 $17.02
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $17.29 $19.75
Tax Rate 0.33 $20.22 $16.64
Cash Flow 1,242,351,716 $17.00 $19.86
Capital Expenditures -332,586,000 $18.09 $18.77
Long Term Debt 0 $18.43 $18.43

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $10.09 (USD) for AMGP:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $10.95 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Enbridge Energy (EEQ.DL:NYS), EnLink Midstream Partners (ENLK.DL:NYS), Genesis Energy (GEL:NYS), Holly Energy Partners (HEP:NYS) and NuStar Energy (NS:NYS).

Company AMGP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.33 (USD)
Book Value/Share $0.13 (USD)
Sales/Share $0.66 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.39 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.53 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$39.72 (USD) 0.0
$0.35 (USD) 0.0
$1.47 (USD) 0.0
$2.75 (USD) 0.0
$6.14 (USD) 0.0
AMGP:NYS Ratios Used Average Values EEQ.DL:NYS ENLK.DL:NYS GEL:NYS HEP:NYS NS:NYS
53.68 PE Ratio 120.37 0.00 227.79 0.00 12.95 0.00
99.47 PB Ratio 269.73 1338.17 1.06 1.01 7.24 1.16
20.28 PS Ratio 2.23 0.00 0.57 0.87 6.17 1.29
34.66 PCF Ratio 7.10 0.00 5.93 5.83 11.14 5.52
30.29 EV to EBITDA 11.54 0.00 8.01 11.02 12.03 15.10

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $14.20 (USD) for AMGP:NYS

Company AMGP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.33 (USD)
Book Value/Share $0.13 (USD)
Sales/Share $0.66 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.39 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.53 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$13.35 (USD) 0
$23.81 (USD) 0
$9.44 (USD) 0
$11.02 (USD) 0
$13.39 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 40.47
PB Ratio 176.50
PS Ratio 14.26
PCF Ratio 28.46
EV to EBITDA 25.18

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AMGP:NYS for the last 1 years was  173.44

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AMGP:NYS and generated a book value of  $0.00 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AMGP:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AMGP:NYS for 2019 of $15.00 (USD).

AMGP:NYS Antero Midstream GP

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 13.54 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 1.09 1.35
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 1,081.50 1,222.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 15.00
Mean Cash Flow 1.47 1.81
Mean EBITDA 791.10 995.50
Mean Net Income 548.80 688.30
Mean Debt Outstanding 2,846.70 3,353.80
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 749.20 564.80

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Amphenol (APH:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Amphenol(APH:NYS)

Technology:Electronic Components

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$91.15 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$92.24 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.2%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $98.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $90.63 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $78.19 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (APH:NYS USD)

Price 91.15
Range 91.08 – 91.68
52 week 75.07 – 96.99
Open 91.64
Vol / Avg. 1.19M/1.35M
Mkt cap 27.17B
P/E 23.68
Div/yield 0.88/0.01
EPS 3.85
Shares 298.09M
Beta 0.87

Company Description

Amphenol is one of the world’s largest designers and manufacturers of connectors, cables, and sensor-based products. Its products are used primarily to transmit electrical and optical signals for a wide range of electronic applications. Primary end markets include voice, video, and data communication systems, commercial and military aerospace electronics, industrial factory automation equipment, mobile devices, and transportation applications.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for APH:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $90.63 (USD) for APH:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

APH:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $90.63 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.01 $115.87 $73.78
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $75.26 $113.65
Tax Rate 0.23 $97.60 $83.65
Cash Flow 2,367,700,735 $85.10 $96.15
Capital Expenditures -108,300,000 $90.39 $90.87
Long Term Debt 2,972,500,000 $91.12 $90.13

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $55.76 (USD) for APH:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $53.77 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and Corning (GLW:NYS).

Company APH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.85 (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.48 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.24 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.56 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$113.32 (USD) -36.1
$30.68 (USD) 0.0
$72.74 (USD) 0.0
$26.74 (USD) -26.6
$68.43 (USD) 31.4
APH:NYS Ratios Used Average Values GLW:NYS
22.84 PE Ratio 29.43 29.43
6.52 PB Ratio 2.28 2.28
3.35 PS Ratio 2.77 2.77
24.70 PCF Ratio 10.72 10.72
14.32 EV to EBITDA 10.75 10.75

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $89.18 (USD) for APH:NYS

Company APH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.85 (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.48 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.24 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.56 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$100.11 (USD) 0
$79.38 (USD) 0
$90.66 (USD) 0
$74.32 (USD) 0
$101.41 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 26.00
PB Ratio 5.89
PS Ratio 3.46
PCF Ratio 20.88
EV to EBITDA 15.93

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  APH:NYS for the last 10 years was  5.81

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  APH:NYS and generated a book value of  $13.46 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $78.19 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for APH:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for APH:NYS for 2019 of $98.00 (USD).

APH:NYS Amphenol

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2019-2-13

Current Price: 91.15 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.93 4.44
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 8,308.60 8,862.70
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 98.00
Mean Cash Flow 6.01 5.66
Mean EBITDA 1,997.00 2,186.00
Mean Net Income 1,203.90 1,347.20
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 10.65
Mean Capital Expenditure 280.00 306.90

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Antero Resources (AR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Antero Resources(AR:NYS)

Energy:Oil & Gas E&P

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$9.07 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$12.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 32.3%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $12.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AR:NYS USD)

Price 9.07
Range 8.73 – 9.32
52 week 8.73 – 22.44
Open 9.01
Vol / Avg. 13.69M/5.45M
Mkt cap 2.8B
P/E 13.74
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.26
Shares 308.65M
Beta 1.06

Company Description

Antero Resources, based in Denver, engages in the exploration for and production of natural gas and NGLs in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2017, the company reported proven reserves of 17.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent. Daily production averaged approximately 2,252 mmcfe a day in 2017, at a ratio of 28% liquids and 72% natural gas.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AR:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($54.59) (USD) for AR:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $21.30 (USD) for AR:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $13.70 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Gulfport Energy (GPOR:NAS), Matador Resources (MTDR:NYS), Range Resources (RRC:NYS), SM Energy (SM:NYS) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL:NYS).

Company AR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.26) (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.64 (USD)
Sales/Share $10.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.97 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.44 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
($12.64) (USD) 0.0
$19.84 (USD) -38.8
$15.11 (USD) 23.5
($2.72) (USD) 7.8
$36.69 (USD) 99.4
AR:NYS Ratios Used Average Values GPOR:NAS MTDR:NYS RRC:NYS SM:NYS WLL:NYS
15.24 PE Ratio 10.03 3.32 12.42 11.49 12.91 0.00
0.39 PB Ratio 0.77 0.44 1.47 0.47 0.85 0.64
0.99 PS Ratio 1.49 1.10 2.77 0.90 1.40 1.26
2.03 PCF Ratio 2.93 1.88 4.40 2.75 3.24 2.40
6.79 EV to EBITDA 10.66 5.90 6.96 8.49 5.14 26.81

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $27.04 (USD) for AR:NYS

Company AR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.26) (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.64 (USD)
Sales/Share $10.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.97 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.44 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$27.14 (USD) 0
$22.93 (USD) 0
$28.40 (USD) 0
$29.69 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 12.50
PB Ratio 1.06
PS Ratio 2.25
PCF Ratio 5.72
EV to EBITDA 8.63

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AR:NYS for the last 5 years was  1.07

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AR:NYS and generated a book value of  $24.84 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $26.65 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AR:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AR:NYS for 2019 of $12.00 (USD).

AR:NYS Antero Resources

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.5000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 9.07 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 0.55 -0.35
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 4,685.30 4,505.30
# Revenue Analysts 2 1
Mean Target Price 12.00
Mean Cash Flow 6.10 6.10
Mean EBITDA 2,147.10 2,094.00
Mean Net Income 189.00 -100.30
Mean Debt Outstanding 5,848.20 6,303.00
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 36.54
Mean Capital Expenditure 2,174.10 2,141.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Apollo Commercial Real (ARI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Apollo Commercial Real(ARI:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$17.90 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$18.56 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $19.25 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $17.17 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $19.30 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ARI:NYS USD)

Price 17.90
Range 17.80 – 18.22
52 week 16.66 – 19.52
Open 18.05
Vol / Avg. 2.52M/981702
Mkt cap 2.4B
P/E 12.09
Div/yield 1.84/0.10
EPS 1.48
Shares 134.29M
Beta 0.63

Company Description

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is a real estate investment trust that primarily originates, invests in, acquires, and manages commercial first-mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other real estate-related debt investments. The subordinate loans and first-mortgage loans account for the vast majority of the portfolio on a cost basis. Property types include residential, retail, healthcare, office, mixed-use, hotel, industrial, multifamily, securities, and other, with residential properties and hotels representing the highest property value. More than a third of the properties are located in New York City, with the other properties located across other regions of the United States, as well as other countries.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ARI:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $19.30 (USD) for ARI:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ARI:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $19.30 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.79 $23.29 $16.49
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $16.78 $22.87
Tax Rate 0.31 $20.70 $17.90
Cash Flow 234,364,869 $18.33 $20.26
Capital Expenditures 0 $19.30 $19.30
Long Term Debt 0 $19.30 $19.30

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $11.78 (USD) for ARI:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $20.68 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Arbor Realty Trust (ABR:NYS), Ladder Capital (LADR:NYS), PotlatchDeltic (PCH:NAS), Redwood Trust (RWT:NYS) and Urban Edge Props (UE:NYS).

Company ARI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.48 (USD)
Book Value/Share $18.81 (USD)
Sales/Share $1.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.88 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.18 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$21.40 (USD) -69.3
$32.39 (USD) -54.3
$8.31 (USD) 0.0
$6.65 (USD) -23.3
$0.00 (USD) -81.2
ARI:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ABR:NYS LADR:NYS PCH:NAS RWT:NYS UE:NYS
12.55 PE Ratio 14.46 8.67 8.66 15.97 9.84 29.17
0.97 PB Ratio 1.72 1.46 1.49 2.11 1.01 2.54
10.63 PS Ratio 4.85 3.63 5.40 2.17 7.20 5.85
9.70 PCF Ratio 12.10 0.00 6.88 11.16 0.00 18.25
0.00 EV to EBITDA 13.26 0.00 0.00 10.69 0.00 15.84

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $18.85 (USD) for ARI:NYS

Company ARI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.48 (USD)
Book Value/Share $18.81 (USD)
Sales/Share $1.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.88 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.18 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$16.08 (USD) 0
$17.16 (USD) 0
$12.82 (USD) 0
$20.89 (USD) 0
$27.33 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 10.87
PB Ratio 0.91
PS Ratio 7.48
PCF Ratio 11.13
EV to EBITDA 12.56

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ARI:NYS for the last 9 years was  0.92

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ARI:NYS and generated a book value of  $18.75 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $17.17 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for ARI:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for ARI:NYS for 2019 of $19.25 (USD).

ARI:NYS Apollo Commercial Real

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


American Express (AXP:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

American Express(AXP:NYS)

Financial Services:Credit Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$106.62 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$106.55 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 0.1%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $109.80 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $96.07 (USD)
Multiples: $117.77 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AXP:NYS USD)

Price 106.62
Range 106.24 – 107.36
52 week 89.50 – 112.89
Open 107.00
Vol / Avg. 2.36M/3.78M
Mkt cap 89.92B
P/E 13.48
Div/yield 1.48/0.01
EPS 7.91
Shares 843.37M
Beta 1.12

Company Description

American Express is a global financial institution, operating in about 130 countries, that provides consumers and businesses charge and credit card payment products. The company operates a highly profitable merchant payment network. Since 2018, the company has operated in three segments: global consumer services, global commercial services, and global merchant and network services. In addition to payment products, the company’s commercial business offers expense management tools, consulting services, and business loans.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AXP:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $143.09 (USD) for AXP:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AXP:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $143.09 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 12.15 $161.03 $128.69
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $130.86 $158.33
Tax Rate 0.15 $151.82 $134.36
Cash Flow 15,787,379,105 $135.25 $150.93
Capital Expenditures -1,256,600,000 $142.57 $143.61
Long Term Debt 0 $143.09 $143.09

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $161.83 (USD) for AXP:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $165.34 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Capital One Financial (COF:NYS), Discover Financial (DFS:NYS), Mastercard (MA:NYS), PayPal Holdings (PYPL:NAS) and Visa (V:NYS).

Company AXP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $7.91 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.97 (USD)
Sales/Share $33.60 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $17.63 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$212.17 (USD) -31.2
$131.91 (USD) -10.4
$268.52 (USD) -32.2
$228.53 (USD) -33.3
$0.00 (USD) -21.3
AXP:NYS Ratios Used Average Values COF:NYS DFS:NYS MA:NYS PYPL:NAS V:NYS
12.98 PE Ratio 26.82 6.81 8.66 37.70 51.91 29.03
3.95 PB Ratio 12.10 0.73 2.14 40.19 6.77 10.68
3.06 PS Ratio 7.99 1.39 2.17 14.79 6.91 14.70
5.83 PCF Ratio 17.10 2.97 3.85 35.52 19.47 23.67
0.00 EV to EBITDA 26.29 0.00 0.00 27.36 29.59 21.91

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $117.77 (USD) for AXP:NYS

Company AXP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $7.91 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.97 (USD)
Sales/Share $33.60 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $17.63 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$115.04 (USD) 0
$95.14 (USD) 0
$82.61 (USD) 0
$132.65 (USD) 0
$163.43 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 14.54
PB Ratio 3.66
PS Ratio 2.46
PCF Ratio 7.53
EV to EBITDA 12.69

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AXP:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.65

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AXP:NYS and generated a book value of  $26.32 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $96.07 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for AXP:NYS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for AXP:NYS for 2019 of $109.80 (USD).

AXP:NYS American Express

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 3 1 3.5714 Outperform 2019-2-13

Current Price: 106.62 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 8.15 8.88
# EPS Analysts 7 4
Mean Revenue 41,860.80 46,169.00
# Revenue Analysts 4 2
Mean Target Price 109.80
Mean Cash Flow 9.24 10.15
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 6,774.10 7,122.20
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 22.00
Mean Growth Rate 31.90
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Aircastle (AYR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Aircastle(AYR:NYS)

Industrials:Rental & Leasing Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$20.54 (USD) 13/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$23.73 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 15.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $23.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $24.82 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AYR:NYS USD)

Price 20.54
Range 20.53 – 21.09
52 week 16.19 – 22.95
Open 20.98
Vol / Avg. 231934/307640
Mkt cap 1.54B
P/E 6.48
Div/yield 1.14/0.06
EPS 3.17
Shares 75.13M
Beta 1.74

Company Description

Aircastle Ltd is engaged in acquiring, leasing, and selling of commercial jet aircraft to airlines. The company has only single operating segment which is leasing, financing, selling, and managing commercial flight equipment.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AYR:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($23.43) (USD) for AYR:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $14.82 (USD) for AYR:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $30.32 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and Triton International (TRTN:NYS).

Company AYR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.17 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.96 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.44 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.27 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.21 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$18.53 (USD) -15.7
$33.02 (USD) -74.7
$19.95 (USD) 12.0
($42.13) (USD) -51.0
$78.78 (USD) 4.9
AYR:NYS Ratios Used Average Values TRTN:NYS
8.27 PE Ratio 5.85 5.85
0.80 PB Ratio 1.27 1.27
2.21 PS Ratio 2.11 2.11
3.32 PCF Ratio 3.05 3.05
7.90 EV to EBITDA 7.71 7.71

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $37.67 (USD) for AYR:NYS

Company AYR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.17 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.96 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.44 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.27 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.21 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$40.74 (USD) 0
$24.63 (USD) 0
$20.13 (USD) 0
$21.52 (USD) 0
$81.34 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 12.85
PB Ratio 0.95
PS Ratio 2.13
PCF Ratio 3.43
EV to EBITDA 7.96

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AYR:NYS for the last 10 years was  0.93

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AYR:NYS and generated a book value of  $26.62 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $24.82 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for AYR:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for AYR:NYS for 2019 of $23.00 (USD).

AYR:NYS Aircastle

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 3 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-12

Current Price: 20.54 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.31 2.71
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 844.70 895.30
# Revenue Analysts 2 1
Mean Target Price 23.00
Mean Cash Flow 8.59 9.39
Mean EBITDA 727.80 795.00
Mean Net Income 167.70 204.30
Mean Debt Outstanding 4,428.00
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 1,105.00 1,105.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Blackstone Mortgage Trust(BXMT:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$34.19 (USD) 13/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$34.69 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $34.75 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $31.50 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $40.91 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BXMT:NYS USD)

Price 34.19
Range 33.68 – 34.24
52 week 30.48 – 35.44
Open 34.01
Vol / Avg. 2.27M/742535
Mkt cap 4.23B
P/E 13.68
Div/yield 2.48/0.07
EPS 2.50
Shares 123.76M
Beta 0.58

Company Description

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc is a real estate finance company primarily involved in the origination and purchase of senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America and Europe. The vast majority of the company’s asset portfolio is comprised of floating rate loans secured by first priority mortgages. These mortgages are mainly derived from office, hotel, and manufactured housing properties. A significant percentage of the collateralized real estate properties are located in New York, California, or the United Kingdom. Blackstone Mortgage Trust is managed by a subsidiary of The Blackstone Group and benefits from the market data provided by its parent company. Nearly all of Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s revenue is generated in the form of interest income.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BXMT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $40.91 (USD) for BXMT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BXMT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $40.91 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.38 $50.27 $34.49
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $35.11 $49.37
Tax Rate 0.31 $43.87 $37.95
Cash Flow 431,703,860 $38.87 $42.96
Capital Expenditures 0 $40.91 $40.91
Long Term Debt 0 $40.91 $40.91

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $21.98 (USD) for BXMT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $34.77 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Apollo Commercial Real (ARI:NYS), Chimera Investment (CIM:NYS), CyrusOne (CONE:NAS), Cousins Properties (CUZ:NYS) and CoreCivic (CXW:NYS).

Company BXMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.74 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$105.36 (USD) -79.7
$36.00 (USD) -49.9
$22.78 (USD) -17.9
($54.40) (USD) -28.9
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
BXMT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ARI:NYS CIM:NYS CONE:NAS CUZ:NYS CXW:NYS
13.85 PE Ratio 42.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.14 0.00
1.29 PB Ratio 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 0.00
12.27 PS Ratio 8.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.11 0.00
13.63 PCF Ratio 16.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.56 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 17.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.16 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $69.20 (USD) for BXMT:NYS

Company BXMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.74 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$33.42 (USD) 0
$30.88 (USD) 0
$25.70 (USD) 0
$34.93 (USD) 0
$221.08 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 13.37
PB Ratio 1.15
PS Ratio 9.14
PCF Ratio 13.80
EV to EBITDA 38.98

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BXMT:NYS for the last 7 years was  1.16

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BXMT:NYS and generated a book value of  $27.25 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $31.50 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for BXMT:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for BXMT:NYS for 2019 of $34.75 (USD).

BXMT:NYS Blackstone Mortgage Trust

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-2-12

Current Price: 34.19 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.59 2.70
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 426.00 450.80
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 34.75
Mean Cash Flow 2.70 2.70
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 334.70 367.80
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.