Box (BOX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Box $26.78 (USD) Close Price as of 15/06/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Box, (BOX:NYS) is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued.

Company Box
Symbol:Exchange BOX:NYS
Industry Technology:Software-Infrastructure
Close Price/Date $26.78 (USD) 15/06/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $27.77 (USD)
Summary BOX:NYS is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.7% using the 2 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $28.50 (USD)
Comparables: $26.67 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Box Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BOX:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $0.90 (USD) for BOX:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BOX:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $0.90 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 12.89 $1.06 $0.77
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $0.79 $1.03
Tax Rate 0.19 $0.92 $0.87
Cash Flow 28,665,657 $0.82 $0.97
Capital Expenditures
Long Term Debt 58,824,000 $0.92 $0.88

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $18.56 (USD) for BOX:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $26.67 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Cotiviti Holdings (COTV:NYS), Fair Isaac (FICO:NYS), j2 Global (JCOM:NAS), 2U (TWOU:NAS) and Varonis Systems (VRNS:NAS).

Company BOX:NYS End Date Value
Cash/Share $1.55 (USD)
Book Value/Share $0.33 (USD)
MarketCap 3,753,175,758
1 Year Return 0.442
NetPPE 123,977,000
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$41.53 (USD) 0
$3.08 (USD) 0
$32.56 (USD) 0
$29.53 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Used Average Values COTV:NYS FICO:NYS JCOM:NAS TWOU:NAS VRNS:NAS
Cash / Share 3.77 1.74 3.31 7.21 4.52 2.05
Book Value / Share 10.83 11.33 13.55 20.17 5.87 3.23
Market Cap 4,361,446,840 3,704,647,552 5,967,179,588 4,376,665,732 5,464,266,214 2,294,475,115
1 Year Return 0.59 0.07 0.49 0.02 1.13 1.22
Net PPE 51,753,400 77,340,000 40,703,000 79,773,000 49,055,000 11,896,000

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $36.16 (USD) for BOX:NYS

Company BOX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.12) (USD)
Book Value/Share $0.33 (USD)
Sales/Share $3.90 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.83) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$5.18 (USD) 0
$21.26 (USD) 0
$82.03 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 15.59
PS Ratio 5.45
PCF Ratio 155.22
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BOX:NYS for the last 3 years was  15.59

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BOX:NYS and generated a book value of  $0.34 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $5.29 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for BOX:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for BOX:NYS for 2019 of $28.50 (USD).

BOX:NYS Box

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 1 0 4.5000 Outperform 2018-6-14

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS -0.19 0.09
# EPS Analysts 4 4
Mean Revenue 606.30 734.60
# Revenue Analysts 4 4
Mean Target Price 28.50
Mean Cash Flow 0.49 0.66
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income -25.20 13.80
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 5.00 21.00
Mean Growth Rate 8.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Company Overview (BOX:NYS USD)

Price 26.78
Range 25.75 – 26.89
52 week 17.47 – 28.52
Open 26.57
Vol / Avg. 5.39M/1.59M
Mkt cap 3.75B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.16
Shares 139.98M
Beta 1.33

Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Box Inc provides cloud content management platform that enables organizations to securely manage cloud content while allowing easy, secure access and sharing of content from anywhere, on any device.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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