Ferrellgas Partners (FGP:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Ferrellgas Partners(FGP:NYS)

Energy:Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$2.01 (USD) 02/10/2018

Weighted Valuation
$2.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 0.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $2.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (FGP:NYS USD)

Price 2.01
Range 1.96 – 2.03
52 week 2.00 – 5.11
Open 2.00
Vol / Avg. 607792/451233
Mkt cap 195.11M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.40/0.20
EPS -2.59
Shares 97.15M
Beta 0.63

Company Description

Ferrellgas Partners LP is a propane distributor with more than 1 million customers in all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. It buys propane wholesale and delivers the fuel to customers’ properties. Ferrellgas also owns Blue Rhino, the largest domestic tank-exchange network. Blue Rhino allows customers to exchange empty portable tanks for full ones at its locations for a fee.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for FGP:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $38.82 (USD) for FGP:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

FGP:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $38.82 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.27 $54.08 $28.67
Terminal Growth Rate 2.30 $29.63 $52.64
Tax Rate 0.01 $41.79 $35.80
Cash Flow 289,481,456 $36.06 $41.58
Capital Expenditures 32,603,200 $39.09 $38.55
Long Term Debt 2,106,626,000 $39.90 $37.74

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $2.64 (USD) for FGP:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $5.22 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL:NYS), Calumet Specialty (CLMT:NAS), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE:NAS) and Sprague Resources (SRLP:NYS).

Company FGP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.59) (USD)
Book Value/Share ($10.58) (USD)
Sales/Share $21.34 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.76 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.11 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$4.12 (USD) -6.9
($11.74) (USD) -86.3
$1.19 (USD) 35.3
FGP:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CAPL:NYS CLMT:NAS CLNE:NAS SRLP:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 32.68 42.49 0.00 0.00 22.88
0.00 PB Ratio 4.27 4.80 7.41 1.04 3.84
0.10 PS Ratio 0.44 0.27 0.14 1.17 0.18
2.90 PCF Ratio 13.88 8.04 0.00 17.87 15.73
210.51 EV to EBITDA 10.73 12.03 9.40 0.00 10.77

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $6.33 (USD) for FGP:NYS

Company FGP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.59) (USD)
Book Value/Share ($10.58) (USD)
Sales/Share $21.34 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.76 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.11 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$12.47 (USD) 0
$4.74 (USD) 0
$1.78 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 53.43
PB Ratio 25.83
PS Ratio 0.58
PCF Ratio 6.22
EV to EBITDA 16.06

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  FGP:NYS for the last 4 years was  24.63

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  FGP:NYS and generated a book value of  $0.00 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for FGP:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for FGP:NYS for 2019 of $2.00 (USD).

FGP:NYS Ferrellgas Partners

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 1 2.0000 Underperform 2018-10-1

Current Price: 2.0083 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS -0.38 -0.17
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 1,873.70 1,908.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 2.00
Mean Cash Flow 0.71 0.98
Mean EBITDA 256.60 275.00
Mean Net Income -36.30 -16.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 55.00 30.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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