Axos Financial (AX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Axos Financial(AX:NYS)

Financial Services:Savings & Cooperative Banks

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$30.14 (USD) 06/11/2018

Weighted Valuation
$31.33 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.9%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $37.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $22.82 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AX:NYS USD)

Price 30.14
Range 29.80 – 30.49
52 week 24.61 – 44.65
Open 29.86
Vol / Avg. 330996/480342
Mkt cap 1.89B
P/E 12.30
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 2.37
Shares 62.83M
Beta 0.50

Company Description

Axos Financial Inc is a bank holding company which operates through its bank subsidiary, BofI Federal Bank, a nationwide bank that provides financing for single and multifamily residential properties, small to medium-size businesses in certain sectors, and selected specialty finance receivables. The bank distributed its products through a wide range of retail distribution channels, including only banking brands, affinity groups, and sales teams, among others. The majority of the bank’s mortgage exposure is titled toward the state of California, particularly its southern region. Net interest income is a majority of the bank’s revenue.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AX:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $67.34 (USD) for AX:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AX:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $67.34 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.30 $84.36 $56.01
Terminal Growth Rate 2.30 $57.04 $82.81
Tax Rate 0.36 $72.69 $62.00
Cash Flow 368,476,490 $63.89 $70.80
Capital Expenditures -7,818,800 $67.27 $67.42
Long Term Debt 0 $67.34 $67.34

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $22.82 (USD) for AX:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $32.04 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Investors Bancorp (ISBC:NAS), New York Community Banc (NYCB:NYS) and Washington Federal (WAFD:NAS).

Company AX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.45 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.01 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.48 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.55 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$35.90 (USD) -61.1
$15.71 (USD) 81.8
$30.11 (USD) 11.4
$14.69 (USD) -33.1
$0.00 (USD) 53.0
AX:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ISBC:NAS NYCB:NYS WAFD:NAS
12.39 PE Ratio 14.65 20.70 11.01 12.24
1.92 PB Ratio 0.99 1.06 0.75 1.17
4.33 PS Ratio 4.29 4.45 3.70 4.73
12.24 PCF Ratio 9.15 11.06 4.11 12.29
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $46.92 (USD) for AX:NYS

Company AX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.45 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.01 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.48 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.55 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$37.32 (USD) 0
$38.55 (USD) 0
$37.92 (USD) 0
$28.30 (USD) 0
$92.52 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 15.23
PB Ratio 2.43
PS Ratio 5.41
PCF Ratio 11.41
EV to EBITDA 16.67

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AX:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.37

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AX:NYS and generated a book value of  $15.96 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $37.81 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for AX:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for AX:NYS for 2019 of $37.00 (USD).

AX:NYS Axos Financial

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2018-11-5

Current Price: 30.14 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.92 3.46
# EPS Analysts 2 2
Mean Revenue 499.10 579.10
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 37.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 183.00 220.90
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 10.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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