AmeriGas Partners (APU:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

AmeriGas Partners(APU:NYS)

Utilities:Utilities-Regulated Gas

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$36.35 (USD) 21/11/2018

Weighted Valuation
$37.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $37.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (APU:NYS USD)

Price 36.35
Range 35.55 – 36.46
52 week 34.36 – 48.22
Open 35.55
Vol / Avg. 308130/326346
Mkt cap 3.38B
P/E 23.60
Div/yield 3.80/0.10
EPS 1.54
Shares 92.98M
Beta 0.44

Company Description

AmeriGas Partners is the largest retail propane marketer in the United States. The company sells about 1.1 billion gallons of propane annually to 1.8 million customers across a diverse footprint in all 50 states. AmeriGas also sells, installs, and services propane appliances, including heating systems. Its general partner is AmeriGas Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of UGI.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for APU:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $86.18 (USD) for APU:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

APU:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $86.18 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.55 $114.77 $67.05
Terminal Growth Rate 1.50 $68.68 $112.34
Tax Rate 0.02 $92.57 $79.91
Cash Flow 684,976,881 $79.35 $93.02
Capital Expenditures -91,738,800 $85.39 $86.98
Long Term Debt 2,729,485,000 $87.65 $84.72

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $48.23 (USD) for APU:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $25.97 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were New Jersey Resources (NJR:NYS), ONE Gas (OGS:NYS), South Jersey Industries (SJI:NYS), Suburban Propane Partners (SPH:NYS) and UGI (UGI:NYS).

Company APU:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.54 (USD)
Book Value/Share $7.19 (USD)
Sales/Share $30.10 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.43 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$28.65 (USD) 33.7
$16.75 (USD) 0.0
$48.63 (USD) -28.3
$11.97 (USD) 13.4
$122.13 (USD) 12.5
APU:NYS Ratios Used Average Values NJR:NYS OGS:NYS SJI:NYS SPH:NYS UGI:NYS
21.22 PE Ratio 18.60 18.64 23.91 0.00 18.43 13.43
4.96 PB Ratio 2.33 2.75 2.06 1.94 2.43 2.48
1.18 PS Ratio 1.62 1.41 2.56 1.81 1.05 1.25
8.04 PCF Ratio 9.49 9.48 10.77 10.88 7.34 8.98
10.71 EV to EBITDA 20.78 18.72 12.68 54.42 9.29 8.79

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $44.32 (USD) for APU:NYS

Company APU:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.54 (USD)
Book Value/Share $7.19 (USD)
Sales/Share $30.10 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.43 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$37.49 (USD) 0
$28.39 (USD) 0
$45.53 (USD) 0
$42.74 (USD) 0
$67.46 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 24.34
PB Ratio 3.95
PS Ratio 1.51
PCF Ratio 9.64
EV to EBITDA 11.48

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  APU:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.92

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  APU:NYS and generated a book value of  $0.00 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for APU:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for APU:NYS for 2019 of $37.00 (USD).

APU:NYS AmeriGas Partners

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 1 2.0000 Underperform 2018-11-20

Current Price: 36.35 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.69 2.31
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 2,976.20 2,889.30
# Revenue Analysts 2 1
Mean Target Price 37.00
Mean Cash Flow 4.67 4.43
Mean EBITDA 669.30 650.50
Mean Net Income 250.70 215.30
Mean Debt Outstanding 2,920.40 2,958.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 22.52
Mean Capital Expenditure 103.80 102.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


%d bloggers like this: