Facebook (FB:NAS) Valuation

Facebook (FB:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Facebook$137.42 (USD) Close Price as of01/03/2017

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Facebook, (FB:NAS) is found to be (refer below to each of the models for detailed calculations and assumptions).

Summary chart
  1. Discounted Cash Flow

    Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $172.48 (USD) for FB:NAS
    Details of the DCF model are shown below

  2. Comparables Model

    Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $83.29 (USD) for FB:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $147.74 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.

    The comparable companies were Alphabet (GOOG:NAS)

    Details of the Comparables Model are shown below

  3. Multiples

    Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of $187.23 (USD) for FB:NAS

    Details of the Multiples Model are shown below

  4. Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

    Using an Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book we generated a value of $139.55 (USD) for FB:NAS

    Details of the Adjusted Book Value Model are shown below

  5. Analyst Data

    In the Stockcalc database there are 11 analysts that provide a valuation for FB:NAS.
    The 11 analysts have a concensus valuation for FB:NAS for 2017 of $153.45 (USD).

    Details of the Analyst Data are shown below

  6. Summary

    If you would like to explore this company further you can start with a quick DCF analysis at https://www.stockcalc.com?ss=00FA3DAB533B48018848579C6AF1A59F

Company Overview (FB:NAS USD)

Bid:Ask 137.09:137.10
Price 137.10
Change %Change -0.07 – -0.05%
Day Range 136.51 – 137.14
52 Week Range 104.40 – 137.82
Open Price 136.80
Day Volume 3568030
Average Volume 18749200
P/E Ratio 39.25
Diluted EPS 3.49
Shares Outstanding 2889981334
Market Cap 396,216,440,891

Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Facebook Inc operates a social networking website. The Company’s products are Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, and Oculus. Its products enable people to connect and share through mobile devices and personal computers.

Financial Data for FB:NAS

The following presents the last up to 5 years of the companies Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow data.

Income Statement

Line Item USD Millions 2012-12-31 2013-12-31 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 2016-12-31
Total Revenue 5,089 7,872 12,466 17,928 27,638
Cost Of Revenue 1,364 1,875 2,153 2,867 3,789
Gross Profit 3,725 5,997 10,313 15,061 23,849
Selling General And Administration 1,788 1,778 2,653 4,020 5,503
Research And Development 1,399 1,415 2,666 4,816 5,919
EBITDA 1,194 3,821 6,176 8,162 14,870
Depreciation and Amortization 649 1,011 1,243 1,945 2,342
Operating Expense 3,187 3,193 5,319 8,836 11,422
Operating Income 538 2,804 4,994 6,225 12,427
EBIT 545 2,810 4,933 6,217 12,528
Interest Income 14 19 27 52 176
Interest Expense 51 56 23 23 10
Pre-Tax Income 494 2,754 4,910 6,194 12,518
Tax Provision 441 1,254 1,970 2,506 2,301
Net Income 53 1,500 2,940 3,688 10,217

Diluted Average Shares 2,166 2,517 2,664 2,853 2,925
Diluted EPS 0.01 0.60 1.10 1.29 3.49

Balance Sheet

Line Item USD Millions 2012-12-31 2013-12-31 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 2016-12-31
Total Assets 15,103 17,895 40,184 49,407 64,961
Current Assets 11,267 13,070 13,670 21,652 34,401
Cash And Cash Equivalents 2,384 3,323 4,315 4,907 8,903
Other Short Term Investments 7,242 8,126 6,884 13,527 20,546
Receivables 1,170 1,160 1,678 2,559 3,993
Inventory 0 0 0 0 0
PrepaidAssets 471 461 793 659 959
Deferred Income Taxes 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Total Non Current Assets 3,836 4,825 26,514 27,755 30,560
Gross PPE 3,273 4,142 5,784 7,819 11,803
Accumulated Depreciation -882 -1,260 -1,817 -2,132 -3,212
Net PPE 2,391 2,882 3,967 5,687 8,591
Goodwill 587 839 17,981 18,026 18,122
Intangibles 801 883 3,929 3,246 2,535
Other Non Current Assets 57 221 637 796 1,312
Total liabilities 3,348 2,425 4,088 5,189 5,767
Current Liabilities 1,052 1,100 1,424 1,925 2,875
Payables 234 268 378 413 582
Current debt 0 0 0 201 0
Current capital lease obligation 365 239 114 7 0
Other current liabilities 0 0 0 1,304 2,293
Non Current Liabilities 2,296 1,325 2,664 3,264 2,892
Long Term Debt 1,500 0 0 0 0
Long Term Capital Lease 491 237 119 107 0
Other Non Current Liabilities 305 1,088 0 0 0
Total Equity 11,755 15,470 36,096 44,218 59,194
Stockholders Equity 11,755 15,470 36,096 44,218 59,194
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0
CapitalStock 0 0 0 0 0
Common Stock 0 0 0 0 0
Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0 0
Retained Earnings 1,659 3,159 6,099 9,787 21,670
Other Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities and Total Equity 15,103 17,895 40,184 49,407 64,961

Cash Flow

Line Item USD Millions 2012-12-31 2013-12-31 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 2016-12-31
Net Income 53 1,500 2,940 3,688 10,217
Depreciation and amortization 649 1,011 1,243 1,945 2,342
Amortization of debt discount/premium and issuance costs 0 0 0 0 0
Investment/asset impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0
Investments losses (gains) 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred income taxes -186 -37 -210 -795 -457
Stock based compensation 1,572 906 1,786 2,960 3,218
Accounts receivable -170 -378 -610 -973 -1,489
Inventory 0 0 0 0 0
Prepaid expenses -14 -45 -123 -144 -159
Accounts payable 1 26 31 18 14
Accrued liabilities 160 -38 328 513 1,014
Income Tax Payable 0 0 0 0 0
Interest payable 0 0 0 0 0
Other working capital -15 711 140 1,353 1,311
Other non-cash items -438 566 -68 34 97

Net cash provided by operating activities 1,612 4,222 5,457 8,599 16,108
Investments in property, plant, and equipment -1,235 -1,362 -1,831 -2,523 -4,491
Property, plant, and equipment reductions 0 0 0 0 0
Acquisitions, net -911 -368 -4,975 -313 -123
Purchases of investments -10,309 -7,434 -9,104 -15,938 -22,341
Sales/Maturities of investments 5,433 6,551 10,347 9,238 15,155
Other investing activities -2 -11 -350 102 61

Net cash used for investing activities -7,024 -2,624 -5,913 -9,434 -11,739
Debt issued 1,496 0 0 0 0
Debt repayment -366 -1,891 -243 -119 -312
Common stock issued 6,760 1,478 0 0 0
Preferred stock issued 0 0 0 0 0
Cash dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0
Other financing activities -1,607 -254 1,814 1,701 2

Net cash provided by, used for activities 6,283 -667 1,571 1,582 -310
Effect of exchange rates 1 8 -123 -155 0
Net change in cash 872 939 992 592 3,996
Cash at beginning of period 1,512 2,384 3,323 4,315 4,907
Cash at end of period 2,384 3,323 4,315 4,907 8,903
Operating cash flow 1,612 4,222 5,457 8,599 16,108
Capital expenditure -1,235 -1,362 -1,831 -2,523 -4,491
Free cash flow 377 2,860 3,626 6,076 11,617

Ratio Data for FB:NAS

Profitability Ratios

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross Margin (%) 73.2 76.18 82.73 84.01 86.29
Operation Margin (%) 10.57 35.62 40.06 34.72 44.96
Tax Rate (%) 89.27 45.53 40.12 40.46 18.38
Net Margin (%) 0.63 18.94 23.46 20.47 36.86
Sales per Employee 1M 1M 1M 1M 2M
EBIT Margin (%) 10.71 35.7 39.57 34.68 45.33
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.46 48.54 49.54 45.53 53.8
Net Profit Margin (%) 1.04 19.05 23.58 20.57 36.97
Interest Coverage 10.69 50.18 214.48 270.3 1252.8

Efficiency Ratios

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Days In Sales 45.4 42.38 40.8 43.13 43.26
Days In Inventory
Days In Payment 17.13 14.79 22.29 23.68 23.99
Cash Conversion Cycle
Receivable Turnover 8.04 8.61 8.95 8.46 8.44
Inventory Turnover
Payment Turnover 21.31 24.67 16.37 15.41 15.22
Fixed Assets Turnover 2.63 2.99 3.64 3.71 3.87
Assets Turnover 0.47 0.48 0.43 0.4 0.48
ROE (%) 0.4 10.95 11.34 9.14 19.7
ROA (%) 0.3 9.04 10.07 8.19 17.82
ROIC (%) 0.59 10.08 11.18 9.03 19.38
FCF Sales Ratio (%) 7.41 36.33 29.09 33.89 42.03
FCF Net Income Ratio (%) 711.32 190.67 123.33 164.75 113.7
Capital Expenditure Sales Ratio (%) 24.27 17.3 14.69 14.07 16.25

Financial Health

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Current Ratio 10.71 11.88 9.6 11.25 11.97
Quick Ratio 10.26 11.46 9.04 10.91 11.63
Long Term Debt Total Capital Ratio (%) 14.48 1.51 0.33 0.24
Long Term Debt Equity Ratio 0.17 0.02 0 0
Financial Leverage 1.28 1.16 1.11 1.12 1.1
Total Debt To Equity Ratio 0.2 0.03 0.01 0.01 0

Valuation Ratios

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sustainable Growth Rate (%) 0.4 7.45 16.04 8.97 15.66
Payout Ratio (%) 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Return 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03
Sales Per Share 2.35 2.61 4.31 5.62 8.53
Book Value Per Share 4.96 5.12 7.65 14.62 18.78
CFO Per Share 0.74 1.4 1.96 2.59 4.35
FCF Per Share 0.17 0.99 1.27 1.76 3
Earning Yield (%) 0.04 0.75 1.37 0.95 2.25
PE Ratio 2661.97 133.29 72.92 105.72 44.42
Sales Yield (%) 8.83 4.78 5.52 5.37 7.41
PS Ratio 11.33 20.93 18.12 18.64 13.49
Book Value Yield (%) 18.62 9.37 9.8 13.96 16.32
PB Ratio 5.37 10.67 10.21 7.16 6.13
CF Yield (%) 2.8 2.55 2.52 2.48 3.78
PCF Ratio 35.77 39.16 39.75 40.38 26.45
FCF Yield (%) 0.65 1.8 1.63 1.69 2.6
FCF Ratio 152.94 55.41 61.35 59.32 38.39
Dividend Yield (%)
Forward Dividend Yield (%)
Forward Earning Yield (%) 2.23 1.99 2.19 2.6 4.46
Forward PE Ratio 44.84 50.25 45.66 38.46 22.42
PEG Ratio 1.47 1.45 1.82 1.02 0.52
PEG Payback 9.08 8.79 10.27 7.55 5.62
Dividend Rate
Working Capital Per Share 4.31 3.76 5.36 6.12 9.62
EV To EBITDA 46.79 41.33 33.33 42.74 24.05
Buy Back Yield (%) 0 0
Total Yield (%) 0 0

Valuation Details and Assumptions

Cost of Capital

We have calculated the WACC for FB:NAS to be 7.94 based on the following assumptions:

WACC chart
Component
Value
%
K
Cost Of

Common Equity
376622367446
100
Ke
7.94

Debt (Book Value)
0
0
Kd
5.06

Preferred (Book Value)
0
0
Kp
0

Enterprise Value
376622367446
100

Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WACC
7.94

The Company’s Beta was calculated as 0.717 using a 60 month time frame and the Nasdaq index.

Note: Higher risk premiums imply investors require greater returns

The Company’s Cost of Preferred equity was calculated using the preferred stock dividend divided by the book value of prefrerred shares for the company

The Company’s Cost of Debt was calculated as the weighted average Interest paid for the last 3 years divided by the book value of weighted average interest bearing debt outstanding

Analyst Coverage

We have 11 Analysts covering FB:NAS.

FB:NAS Facebook

Current Price: 136.9401 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2017 2018 2019
Mean EPS 5.3566 6.4909 7.4843
# EPS Analysts 10 9 3
Mean Revenue 37,749.4 46,910.2 56,070.7
# Revenue Analysts 9 8 3
Mean Target Price 153.4545
Mean Cash Flow 6.3643 7.5052 9.1970
Mean EBITDA 21,351.9 26,319.2 35,612.7
Mean Net Income 14,909.3 18,141.9 21,750.7
Mean Debt Outstanding -7,486.6 -14,227.3 68,872.1
Mean Tax Rate 21.6200 21.8750 21.0000
Mean Growth Rate 23.1550
Mean Capital Expenditure 6,951.0 7,316.7 8,574.4
Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating(out of 5) Recommendation As Of
10 2 1 4.3846 Outperform 2017-2-28
Based on the 11 Analysts we have covering FB:NAS we see a consensus price target for 2017 of $153.45 (USD).

Forecasted Financial Statements

The resulting projections of the 11 analysts are shown here:

Income Statement Projections for
FB:NAS Facebook

millions10183

Line Item USD Millions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Weighted
Average
2017 2018 2019
Total Revenue 5,089 7,872 12,466 17,928 27,638 100.00 37,749 46,910 56,071
Cost Of Revenue 1,364 1,875 2,153 2,867 3,789 15.66 4,304 5,404 5,369
Gross Profit 3,725 5,997 10,313 15,061 23,849 84.34 33,446 41,506 50,701
Selling General And Administration 1,788 1,778 2,653 4,020 5,503 21.22 5,832 7,324 7,276
Research And Development 1,399 1,415 2,666 4,816 5,919 22.78 6,262 7,863 7,812
EBITDA 1,194 3,821 6,176 8,162 14,870 50.11 21,352 26,319 35,613
Depreciation and Amortization 649 1,011 1,243 1,945 2,342 9.66 2,944 3,737 6,335
Operating Expense 3,187 3,193 5,319 8,836 11,422 44.00 16,611 20,641 24,672
Operating Income 538 2,804 4,994 6,225 12,427 40.34 16,835 20,864 26,029
EBIT 545 2,810 4,933 6,217 12,528 40.45 18,408 22,582 29,278
Interest Income 14 19 27 52 176 0.46 172 214 255
Interest Expense 51 56 23 23 10 0.14 43 54 92
Pre-Tax Income 494 2,754 4,910 6,194 12,518 40.32 18,365 22,528 29,186
Tax Provision 441 1,254 1,970 2,506 2,301 11.33 3,456 4,386 7,436
Net Income 53 1,500 2,940 3,688 10,217 28.98 14,909 18,142 21,751
Diluted Average Shares 2,166 2,517 2,664 2,853 2,925 2,783 2,795 2,906

Diluted EPS 0.01 0.60 1.10 1.29 3.49 5.36 6.49 7.48
# Of Analysts 10 9 3

As a measure of Cash flow for the company we start with the EBITDA above and adjust as you see in the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Discounted Cash Flow

Using a Discounted Cash flow model we generate a Value per share for FB:NAS of $172.48 (USD)
Year 2017 2018 2019 Terminal Growth Rate(%)2.9
EBITDA (Cash Flow) 21351900000 26319200000 35612700000 36645468300
Normalizations & Adjustments 0 0 0 0
Normalized EBITDA 21351900000 26319200000 35612700000 36645468300
Tax Rate(%)18.3815 3924799498.50 4837863748.00 6546148450.50 6735986755.56
+/- Tax Loss Carry Forward 0 0 0 0
Net Operating After Tax Cash Flow 17,427,100,502 21,481,336,252 29,066,551,550 29,909,481,544
Capital Investment Required (Estimate) -2288400000 -2288400000 -2288400000 -2288400000
Tax Shields on Capital Investment 301103970 301103970 301103970 301103970
Incremental Working Capital Requirements 293000000 293000000 293000000 293000000
Discretionary Cash Flow 15,732,804,471 19,787,040,222 27,372,255,519 28,215,185,514
Terminal Multiple ( 100 / (WACC – Growth Rate )) 19.84
Capitalized Terminal Value 559,825,109,412
Year: (For Discounted Calculations) 1 2 3 3+
WACC: 7.94 7.94 7.94 7.94
Discounted Annual Cash Flows 14,575,509,053 16,983,062,549 21,765,234,182 445,148,723,625
Present Value of Discretionary Cash Flow 53,323,805,783
Discounted Terminal Value 445,148,723,625
Total Discounted Cash Flow 498,472,529,408
Present Value of Tax Shields 0
Redundant Assets 0
Enterprise Value 498,472,529,408
Less Interest Bearing Debt 0
En Block Fair MarketValue(FMV) Equity 498,472,529,408
Book Value of Preferred Equity 0
Value of Common Equity 498,472,529,408
Number of Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 2889981334
Calculated Value Per Share ($/share) $172.48 (USD)

Comparable Companies

(Using Price Based Ratios)

We ran FB:NAS against comparable companies in its space and generated a valution of $83.29 (USD). The comparable companies included Alphabet (GOOG:NAS)
Company FB:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.49 (USD)
Book Value/Share $20.48 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.45 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.51 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.08 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$103.16 (USD) 0
$83.85 (USD) 0
$60.21 (USD) 0
$87.90 (USD) 0
$81.36 (USD) 0
FB:NAS Ratios Used Average Values GOOG:NAS
38.84 PE Ratio 29.56 29.56
6.62 PB Ratio 4.09 4.09
14.34 PS Ratio 6.37 6.37
24.61 PCF Ratio 15.96 15.96
24.36 EV to EBITDA 16.00 16.00

Comparables chartComparables chartComparables chartComparables chartComparables chart

Other Ratios

Companies that do not have revenue yet or experience negative incomes can be valued against their peer group using other ratios such as Cash/share, Returns, Market Cap and Net PPE.

Using this approach we generate a valuation for FB:NAS of $147.74 (USD)
Company FB:NAS End Date Value
Cash/Share $3.04 (USD)
Book Value/Share $20.48 (USD)
MarketCap 391708070010
1 Year Return 0.256
NetPPE 8591000000
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$136.38 (USD) 0
$90.90 (USD) 0
$178.56 (USD) 0
$126.27 (USD) 0
$206.58 (USD) 0
Ratios Used Average Values GOOG:NAS
Cash / Share 18.35 18.35
Book Value / Share 185.48 185.48
Market Cap 522289882661.00 522289882661
1 Year Return 0.17 0.17
Net PPE 34234000000.00 34234000000.00

Multiples Approach

(We use the term multiples to describe valuing the company against its previous ratio values)
Using a multiples model we see FB:NAS is and generate a valuation of $187.23 (USD)
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 73.42
PB Ratio 6.82
PS Ratio 17.15
PCF Ratio 37.00
EV to EBITDA 34.32
Price Based on Comparables Adjustment Factor
$256.25 (USD) 0
$139.65 (USD) 0
$162.02 (USD) 0
$203.77 (USD) 0
$174.48 (USD) 0
Company FB:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.49 (USD)
Book Value/Share $20.48 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.45 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.51 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.08 (USD)

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for FB:NAS for the last 4 years was 6.82

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for FB:NAS as follows and see a value of $20.47 (USD)

By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of $139.55 (USD)

Line Item Most Recent Book Value Estimated FMV Realizable %
Total Assets 64961000000 64961000000 0
Current Assets 34401000000 34401000000 0
Cash and Cash Equilivents 8903000000 8903000000 100.00
Other Short Term Investments 20546000000 20546000000 100.00
Receivables 3993000000 3993000000 100.00
Inventory 0 0 0.00
Prepaid Assets 959000000 959000000 100.00
Deferred Income Taxes 0 0 0.00
Other Current Assets 0 0 0.00
Non-Current Assets 30560000000 30560000000 0
Gross PPE 11803000000 11803000000 0
Accumulated Depreciation -3212000000 -3212000000 0
Net PPE 8591000000 8591000000 100.00
Goodwill 18122000000 18122000000 100.00
Other Intangible Assets 2535000000 2535000000 100.00
Other Non-Current Assets 1312000000 1312000000 100.00
Total Liabilities 5767000000 5767000000 0
Current Liabilities 2875000000 2875000000 0
Payables 582000000 582000000 100.00
Current Debt 0 0 0.00
Current Capital Lease Obligation 0 0 0.00
Other Current Liabilities 2293000000 2293000000 100.00
Non-Current Liabilities 2892000000 2892000000 0
Long Term Debt 0 0 0.00
Long Term Capital Lease Obligation 0 0 0.00
Other Non-Current Liabilities 2892000000 2892000000 100.00
Total Equity 59194000000 59194000000 0
Stockholder’s Equity 59194000000 59194000000 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0.00
Common Stock 59194000000 59194000000 0
Treasury Stock 0 0 0.00
Retained Earnings 21670000000 21670000000 100.00
Other Equity -21670000000 -21670000000 100.00
Total Liabilities and Equity 64961000000 64961000000 0
ANBV Equity Common Shareholders 59194000000
Number Shares Outstanding 2892000000
Adjusted NetBook Value per Share USD $ $20.47

Sector and Industry Analysis

FB:NAS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
P:E 105.72 72.92 133.29 2661.97
P:B 7.16 10.21 10.67 5.37
P:S 18.64 18.12 20.93 11.33
P:CF 40.38 39.75 39.16 35.77
EV:EBITDA 42.74 33.33 41.33 46.79
Technology:Internet Content & Information 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
P:E 49.08 46.08 91.82 45.38 74.01 33.13 119.40 42.28 54.87
P:B 4.20 4.32 6.45 3.21 3.79 4.74 4.01 5.90 6.45
P:S 4.26 5.27 7.00 4.80 3.46 3.85 4.37 4.01 7.58
P:CF 28.95 25.88 29.10 16.01 16.09 16.60 20.21 12.19 25.45
EV:EBITDA 23.99 21.59 13.44 14.66 20.67 11.89 18.12 10.57 26.62

Summary

If you would like to explore this company further you can start with a quick DCF analysis at https://www.stockcalc.com?ss=00FA3DAB533B48018848579C6AF1A59F

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