HD Supply Holdings (HDS:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

HD Supply Holdings(HDS:NAS)

Industrials:Industrial Distribution

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$41.45 (USD) 19/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$42.15 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $46.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $35.00 (USD)
Comparables: $44.88 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (HDS:NAS USD)

Price 41.45
Range 41.10 – 44.00
52 week 35.62 – 45.94
Open 43.49
Vol / Avg. 4.42M/1.57M
Mkt cap 7.08B
P/E 26.74
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 2.17
Shares 170.7M
Beta 1.25

Company Description

Through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth, HD Supply has become one of the largest industrial distributors in North America. It is the market leader in the two sectors in which it operates (facilities and home improvement maintenance, repair, and operations and specialty construction). Today, HD Supply offers 600,000 stock-keeping units and serves 500,000 customers through 220 branches across the United States and Canada.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for HDS:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $35.00 (USD) for HDS:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

HDS:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $35.00 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.54 $48.38 $25.71
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $26.51 $47.23
Tax Rate 0.26 $40.19 $29.81
Cash Flow 1,071,511,057 $31.17 $38.84
Capital Expenditures 8,400,000 $35.03 $34.97
Long Term Debt 4,308,000,000 $36.26 $33.74

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $44.88 (USD) for HDS:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $41.03 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Applied Industrial Tech (AIT:NYS), Anixter International (AXE:NYS), Fastenal (FAST:NAS), W.W. Grainger (GWW:NYS) and MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM:NYS).

Company HDS:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.17 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.37 (USD)
Sales/Share $31.33 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.19 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$37.67 (USD) 96.3
$44.68 (USD) 0.0
$47.25 (USD) -21.9
$39.18 (USD) -37.4
$48.75 (USD) 0.0
HDS:NAS Ratios Used Average Values AIT:NYS AXE:NYS FAST:NAS GWW:NYS MSM:NYS
27.75 PE Ratio 17.36 13.88 12.81 24.02 22.20 13.88
4.59 PB Ratio 4.77 2.53 1.25 7.82 8.83 3.39
1.37 PS Ratio 1.51 0.67 0.24 3.64 1.54 1.46
14.15 PCF Ratio 16.77 11.92 14.53 26.81 16.30 14.27
12.69 EV to EBITDA 11.64 9.86 8.51 16.12 13.08 10.62

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $43.36 (USD) for HDS:NAS

Company HDS:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.17 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.37 (USD)
Sales/Share $31.33 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.19 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$38.29 (USD) 0
$56.51 (USD) 0
$29.10 (USD) 0
$46.50 (USD) 0
$46.38 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 17.65
PB Ratio 6.03
PS Ratio 0.93
PCF Ratio 15.30
EV to EBITDA 11.07

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  HDS:NAS for the last 2 years was  5.97

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  HDS:NAS and generated a book value of  $7.50 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $44.83 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for HDS:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for HDS:NAS for 2020 of $46.00 (USD).

HDS:NAS HD Supply Holdings

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 2 0 3.7500 Outperform 2019-3-18

Current Price: 41.45 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020
Mean EPS 3.48
# EPS Analysts 2
Mean Revenue 6,364.10
# Revenue Analysts 1
Mean Target Price 46.00
Mean Cash Flow 3.85
Mean EBITDA 914.00
Mean Net Income 641.60
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 12.20
Mean Capital Expenditure 127.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Target (TGT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Target(TGT:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$77.88 (USD) 18/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$77.91 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $79.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $77.93 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $72.59 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (TGT:NYS USD)

Price 77.88
Range 76.92 – 78.01
52 week 61.13 – 89.26
Open 76.92
Vol / Avg. 3.85M/5.79M
Mkt cap 40.21B
P/E 14.06
Div/yield 2.52/0.03
EPS 5.51
Shares 516.33M
Beta 0.67

Company Description

Target Corp is one of the largest retailers in North America, with about 1,800 units across the U.S. Its large-format stores offer general merchandise and an assortment of food products. Target sells roughly 33% of general merchandise under various private labels. The firm has an expanding Internet sales presence and issues its own consumer credit card, the REDcard, which gives customers a 5% discount on all Target purchases for holding an account. The company generates a mid-single-digit percentage of its sales from its digital storefronts. Virtually all of the company’s sales come from the United States, particularly in the wake of its decision to exit its Canadian operations in 2015 after two years in the country.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for TGT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $121.16 (USD) for TGT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

TGT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $121.16 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.89 $158.19 $96.53
Terminal Growth Rate 1.90 $98.71 $154.87
Tax Rate 0.20 $130.80 $111.53
Cash Flow 6,805,697,200 $111.18 $131.15
Capital Expenditures -2,107,000,000 $118.32 $124.01
Long Term Debt 12,710,000,000 $122.39 $119.93

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $77.93 (USD) for TGT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $106.21 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Costco Wholesale (COST:NAS), Dollar General (DG:NYS) and Dollar Tree (DLTR:NAS).

Company TGT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $138.37 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.35 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$110.75 (USD) -46.6
$109.86 (USD) -36.2
$135.32 (USD) -36.2
$138.30 (USD) -53.4
$162.64 (USD) -29.5
TGT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values COST:NAS DG:NYS DLTR:NAS
12.11 PE Ratio 20.10 29.68 17.55 13.07
3.39 PB Ratio 5.13 7.31 4.90 3.19
0.53 PS Ratio 0.98 0.67 1.27 1.00
6.46 PCF Ratio 14.19 16.27 14.62 11.67
7.26 EV to EBITDA 13.17 15.71 13.29 10.51

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $83.44 (USD) for TGT:NYS

Company TGT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $138.37 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.35 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$80.81 (USD) 0
$72.17 (USD) 0
$82.68 (USD) 0
$88.36 (USD) 0
$93.19 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 14.67
PB Ratio 3.37
PS Ratio 0.60
PCF Ratio 7.86
EV to EBITDA 7.55

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  TGT:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.33

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  TGT:NYS and generated a book value of  $21.82 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $72.59 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for TGT:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for TGT:NYS for 2020 of $79.67 (USD).

TGT:NYS Target

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 0 3.8000 Outperform 2019-3-15

Current Price: 77.88 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 5.76 6.30 6.67
# EPS Analysts 4 2 1
Mean Revenue 77,553.30 79,430.20 81,222.00
# Revenue Analysts 3 2 1
Mean Target Price 79.67
Mean Cash Flow 10.85 11.32 11.59
Mean EBITDA 6,651.70 6,795.40 6,678.80
Mean Net Income 2,960.60 3,091.30 3,090.20
Mean Debt Outstanding 10,099.90 10,829.50 13,421.70
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 6.55
Mean Capital Expenditure 3,346.10 3,432.90 3,411.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Atco (ACO.X:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Atco(ACO.X:TSE)

Utilities:Utilities-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$45.13 (CAD) 04/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$46.20 (CAD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 2.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $45.17 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $47.73 (CAD)
Comparables: $46.25 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ACO.X:TSE CAD)

Price 0.00
Range 0.00 – 0.00
52 week 0.00 – 0.00
Open 0.00
Vol / Avg. 0/0
Mkt cap 0
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.00
Shares 0
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Atco Ltd is a Canadian holding company that offers gas, electric, and infrastructure solutions. The largest subsidiary of the company is Canadian utilities, which operates natural gas, electricity, and logistical services. Atco’s primary segments include electricity (generation, transmission, and distribution), pipelines and liquid, Neltume Ports and Structures and logistics. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, the firm mainly operates in Canada and Australia, along with some operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Mexico. Atco’s large subsidiary, Canadian Utilities, launched a major venture called Atcoenergy, which provides low-cost and sustainable energy solutions for the Canadian province of Alberta.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ACO.X:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($38.31) (CAD) for ACO.X:TSE

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $46.25 (CAD) for ACO.X:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $72.47 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Canadian Utilities (CU.X:TSE), Emera (EMA:TSE) and Superior Plus (SPB:TSE).

Company ACO.X:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.86 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $32.75 (CAD)
Sales/Share $42.58 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.70 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $18.22 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$45.88 (CAD) -36.1
$57.34 (CAD) -8.9
$63.71 (CAD) -55.5
($25.62) (CAD) -58.2
$0.00 (CAD) -32.2
ACO.X:TSE Ratios Used Average Values CU.X:TSE EMA:TSE SPB:TSE
15.49 PE Ratio 16.04 16.68 15.40 0.00
1.35 PB Ratio 1.75 1.94 1.50 1.82
1.04 PS Ratio 1.50 2.16 1.68 0.66
5.09 PCF Ratio 8.04 10.85 6.47 6.80
7.34 EV to EBITDA 12.71 10.49 11.49 16.13

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $61.53 (CAD) for ACO.X:TSE

Company ACO.X:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.86 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $32.75 (CAD)
Sales/Share $42.58 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.70 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $18.22 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$56.90 (CAD) 0
$47.49 (CAD) 0
$49.25 (CAD) 0
$26.66 (CAD) 0
$127.33 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.89
PB Ratio 1.45
PS Ratio 1.16
PCF Ratio 3.06
EV to EBITDA 6.99

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ACO.X:TSE for the last 10 years was  1.46

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ACO.X:TSE and generated a book value of  $32.75 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $47.73 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for ACO.X:TSE. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for ACO.X:TSE for 2019 of $45.17 (CAD).

ACO.X:TSE Atco

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 1 3.3333 Hold 2019-3-1

Current Price: 45.13 CAD

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 3.17 3.28 3.49
# EPS Analysts 6 6 1
Mean Revenue 4,759.00 4,857.00
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 45.17
Mean Cash Flow 13.17 14.12
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Atco (ACO.Y:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Atco(ACO.Y:TSE)

Utilities:Utilities-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$45.50 (CAD) 04/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$46.18 (CAD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $45.17 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $47.69 (CAD)
Comparables: $46.19 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ACO.Y:TSE CAD)

Price 45.50
Range 45.50 – 45.50
52 week 34.97 – 45.50
Open 45.50
Vol / Avg. 0/375
Mkt cap 5.18B
P/E 15.91
Div/yield 1.51/0.03
EPS 2.86
Shares 114.66M
Beta 0.66

Company Description

Atco Ltd is a Canadian holding company that offers gas, electric, and infrastructure solutions. The largest subsidiary of the company is Canadian utilities, which operates natural gas, electricity, and logistical services. Atco’s primary segments include electricity (generation, transmission, and distribution), pipelines and liquid, Neltume Ports and Structures and logistics. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, the firm mainly operates in Canada and Australia, along with some operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Mexico. Atco’s large subsidiary, Canadian Utilities, launched a major venture called Atcoenergy, which provides low-cost and sustainable energy solutions for the Canadian province of Alberta.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ACO.Y:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($38.64) (CAD) for ACO.Y:TSE

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $46.19 (CAD) for ACO.Y:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $72.49 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Canadian Utilities (CU.X:TSE), Emera (EMA:TSE) and Superior Plus (SPB:TSE).

Company ACO.Y:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.86 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $32.75 (CAD)
Sales/Share $42.58 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.70 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $18.22 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$45.88 (CAD) -36.2
$57.34 (CAD) -9.1
$63.71 (CAD) -55.6
($25.62) (CAD) -58.3
$0.00 (CAD) -32.2
ACO.Y:TSE Ratios Used Average Values CU.X:TSE EMA:TSE SPB:TSE
15.42 PE Ratio 16.04 16.68 15.40 0.00
1.35 PB Ratio 1.75 1.94 1.50 1.82
1.04 PS Ratio 1.50 2.16 1.68 0.66
5.07 PCF Ratio 8.04 10.85 6.47 6.80
7.34 EV to EBITDA 12.71 10.49 11.49 16.13

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $61.49 (CAD) for ACO.Y:TSE

Company ACO.Y:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.86 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $32.75 (CAD)
Sales/Share $42.58 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.70 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $18.22 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$56.85 (CAD) 0
$47.49 (CAD) 0
$49.18 (CAD) 0
$26.62 (CAD) 0
$127.33 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.88
PB Ratio 1.45
PS Ratio 1.15
PCF Ratio 3.06
EV to EBITDA 6.99

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ACO.Y:TSE for the last 10 years was  1.46

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ACO.Y:TSE and generated a book value of  $32.75 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $47.69 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for ACO.Y:TSE. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for ACO.Y:TSE for 2019 of $45.17 (CAD).

ACO.Y:TSE Atco

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 1 3.3333 Hold 2019-3-1

Current Price: 45.5 CAD

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 3.17 3.28 3.49
# EPS Analysts 6 6 1
Mean Revenue 4,759.00 4,857.00
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 45.17
Mean Cash Flow 13.17 14.12
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Arch Capital Group (ACGL:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Arch Capital Group(ACGL:NAS)

Financial Services:Insurance-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$32.87 (USD) 01/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$34.05 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.6%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $33.33 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $34.12 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $36.04 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ACGL:NAS USD)

Price 32.87
Range 32.60 – 33.04
52 week 24.80 – 32.87
Open 32.79
Vol / Avg. 1.06M/1.21M
Mkt cap 13.23B
P/E 19.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.73
Shares 402.53M
Beta 0.68

Company Description

Arch Capital Group Ltd is a Bermuda company which writes insurance and reinsurance with operations in Bermuda, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and South Africa. The business operates through three segments: insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage. The insurance segment provides specialty risk solutions to clients worldwide across a variety of industries. The reinsurance segment provides reinsurance services which cover property catastrophe, property, liability, marine, aviation and space, trade credit and surety, agriculture, accident, life and health, and political risk. The mortgage business provides risk management and risk financing products to the mortgage insurance sectors through platforms in the U.S., Europe and Bermuda.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ACGL:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $36.04 (USD) for ACGL:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ACGL:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $36.04 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.36 $45.59 $29.70
Terminal Growth Rate 2.40 $30.27 $44.73
Tax Rate 0.14 $38.25 $33.83
Cash Flow 957,755,868 $34.10 $37.98
Capital Expenditures -20,714,400 $36.00 $36.08
Long Term Debt 0 $36.04 $36.04

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $35.26 (USD) for ACGL:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $22.43 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Athene Holding (ATH:NYS) and Enstar Gr (ESGR:NAS).

Company ACGL:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.73 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.51 (USD)
Sales/Share $13.26 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.78 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.59 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$50.96 (USD) -19.7
$23.11 (USD) 35.2
$33.93 (USD) 26.0
$30.34 (USD) -26.8
$0.00 (USD) -12.4
ACGL:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ATH:NYS ESGR:NAS
18.88 PE Ratio 29.46 8.37 50.54
1.52 PB Ratio 1.07 1.06 1.09
2.46 PS Ratio 2.56 1.35 3.77
8.65 PCF Ratio 9.44 3.07 15.80
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $29.39 (USD) for ACGL:NAS

Company ACGL:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.73 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.51 (USD)
Sales/Share $13.26 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.78 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.59 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$29.68 (USD) 0
$31.62 (USD) 0
$30.08 (USD) 0
$33.50 (USD) 0
$22.09 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 17.15
PB Ratio 1.47
PS Ratio 2.27
PCF Ratio 8.87
EV to EBITDA 8.54

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ACGL:NAS for the last 10 years was  1.45

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ACGL:NAS and generated a book value of  $23.46 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $34.12 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for ACGL:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for ACGL:NAS for 2019 of $33.33 (USD).

ACGL:NAS Arch Capital Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 1 0 4.3333 Outperform 2019-2-28

Current Price: 32.87 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 2.53 2.66 2.85
# EPS Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Revenue 5,866.50 6,159.70 5,890.60
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 33.33
Mean Cash Flow 2.37 2.43
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 1,049.90 1,115.00 1,209.70
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Anworth Mortgage Asset (ANH:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Anworth Mortgage Asset(ANH:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$4.20 (USD) 01/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$4.34 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.3%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $4.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $4.69 (USD)
Comparables: $4.65 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ANH:NYS USD)

Price 4.20
Range 4.19 – 4.28
52 week 4.04 – 5.20
Open 4.26
Vol / Avg. 484534/374643
Mkt cap 413.63M
P/E 12.11
Div/yield 0.56/0.13
EPS -0.16
Shares 98.48M
Beta 0.44

Company Description

Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp is engaged in the business of investment, financing, & management of a leveraged portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities & residential mortgage loans which includes different types of investments such as Agency mortgage-backed securities, Non-agency mortgage-backed securities, & Residential mortgage loans through consolidated securitization trusts. Agency MBS include residential mortgage pass-through certificates or CMOs in which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a government-sponsored enterprise. Non-Agency MBS are issued by companies that are not guaranteed by federally sponsored enterprises, and the company finances its residential mortgage loans through asset-backed securities issued by the consolidated securitization trusts.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ANH:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $5.39 (USD) for ANH:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ANH:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $5.39 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.22 $6.81 $4.43
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $4.52 $6.68
Tax Rate 0.31 $5.83 $4.96
Cash Flow 48,526,351 $5.10 $5.69
Capital Expenditures 0 $5.39 $5.39
Long Term Debt 0 $5.39 $5.39

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $6.40 (USD) for ANH:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $4.65 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Arbor Realty Trust (ABR:NYS), Ares Commercial Real (ACRE:NYS), Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH:NYS), CorEnergy Infr Trust (CORR:NYS) and CatchMark Timber Trust (CTT:NYS).

Company ANH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.16) (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.73 (USD)
Sales/Share $0.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.67 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.12 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -73.1
$7.64 (USD) -55.4
$0.00 (USD) 6.0
$3.53 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) -42.9
ANH:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ABR:NYS ACRE:NYS AHH:NYS CORR:NYS CTT:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 18.87 8.63 11.30 42.50 13.07 0.00
0.90 PB Ratio 1.61 1.37 1.03 2.79 1.42 1.46
59.70 PS Ratio 5.14 3.66 0.00 5.12 7.11 4.68
6.31 PCF Ratio 13.93 0.00 11.15 17.66 11.54 15.36
0.00 EV to EBITDA 22.42 0.00 15.53 17.44 0.00 34.29

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $4.12 (USD) for ANH:NYS

Company ANH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.16) (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.73 (USD)
Sales/Share $0.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.67 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.12 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$3.87 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$4.38 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 36.74
PB Ratio 0.82
PS Ratio 10.79
PCF Ratio 6.49
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ANH:NYS for the last 10 years was  0.82

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ANH:NYS and generated a book value of  $5.70 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $4.69 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for ANH:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for ANH:NYS for 2019 of $4.00 (USD).

ANH:NYS Anworth Mortgage Asset

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 0 1 1.0000 Sell 2019-2-28

Current Price: 4.2 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 0.45 0.45
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 67.00 66.80
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 4.00
Mean Cash Flow 0.45 0.45
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 44.30 44.10
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Ameriprise Financial (AMP:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Ameriprise Financial(AMP:NYS)

Financial Services:Asset Management

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$131.63 (USD) 28/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$128.07 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $143.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $115.93 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $105.56 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AMP:NYS USD)

Price 131.63
Range 130.94 – 132.35
52 week 97.58 – 161.11
Open 131.91
Vol / Avg. 970616/1.02M
Mkt cap 17.84B
P/E 9.27
Div/yield 3.53/0.03
EPS 14.20
Shares 135.5M
Beta 1.89

Company Description

Spun off from American Express in 2005, Ameriprise Financial has emerged as a major player in the U.S. market for asset and wealth management, with around $900 billion in total assets under management and advisement. While the company maintains a meaningful presence in annuities and life insurance, it has become an increasingly smaller contributor to earnings as the company’s asset-management arm has grown. Ameriprise has one of the largest branded advisor networks in the industry.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AMP:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $105.56 (USD) for AMP:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AMP:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $105.56 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 15.74 $114.58 $97.86
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $99.43 $112.74
Tax Rate 0.16 $112.00 $99.13
Cash Flow 2,501,989,206 $99.96 $111.17
Capital Expenditures -132,400,000 $105.34 $105.79
Long Term Debt 0 $105.56 $105.56

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $85.17 (USD) for AMP:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $106.99 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Affiliated Managers Group (AMG:NYS), Apollo Global Management (APO:NYS), Franklin Resources (BEN:NYS), Bank of New York Mellon (BK:NYS) and Blackstone Group (BX:NYS).

Company AMP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $14.20 (USD)
Book Value/Share $41.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $87.50 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $17.58 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.08 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$218.31 (USD) -33.3
$206.52 (USD) -36.8
$429.39 (USD) -87.9
$122.96 (USD) -91.8
$0.00 (USD) 67.1
AMP:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AMG:NYS APO:NYS BEN:NYS BK:NYS BX:NYS
9.27 PE Ratio 15.37 24.25 0.00 10.91 14.11 12.23
3.19 PB Ratio 5.01 1.65 14.58 1.70 1.35 5.75
1.50 PS Ratio 4.91 2.48 10.97 2.82 3.42 4.86
7.49 PCF Ratio 8.85 5.17 13.19 7.92 9.11 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 15.24 7.36 39.04 5.27 0.00 9.28

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $171.49 (USD) for AMP:NYS

Company AMP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $14.20 (USD)
Book Value/Share $41.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $87.50 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $17.58 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.08 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$199.98 (USD) 0
$120.19 (USD) 0
$156.22 (USD) 0
$191.05 (USD) 0
$190.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 14.08
PB Ratio 2.91
PS Ratio 1.79
PCF Ratio 10.87
EV to EBITDA 9.96

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AMP:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.83

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AMP:NYS and generated a book value of  $40.99 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $115.93 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for AMP:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for AMP:NYS for 2019 of $143.67 (USD).

AMP:NYS Ameriprise Financial

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 2 0 3.7500 Outperform 2019-2-27

Current Price: 131.63 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 15.50 17.31 20.25
# EPS Analysts 4 3 1
Mean Revenue 12,883.00 13,264.90 13,653.00
# Revenue Analysts 3 2 1
Mean Target Price 143.67
Mean Cash Flow 18.72 20.77
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 2,129.00 2,201.40 2,355.80
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 18.00 18.00
Mean Growth Rate 11.80
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


American Tower (AMT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

American Tower(AMT:NYS)

Communication Services:Telecom Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$176.15 (USD) 28/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$167.46 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 4.9%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $174.50 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $156.90 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AMT:NYS USD)

Price 176.15
Range 172.39 – 178.69
52 week 134.00 – 177.82
Open 172.52
Vol / Avg. 2.87M/1.94M
Mkt cap 77.71B
P/E 63.59
Div/yield 3.15/0.02
EPS 2.77
Shares 441.13M
Beta 0.66

Company Description

American Tower owns and leases roughly 170,000 cell towers throughout the U.S., Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East. It leases space on its towers to wireless service providers, which install equipment on the towers to support their wireless networks. The company has a very concentrated customer base, with most revenue in each market being generated by just the top few mobile carriers. The company operates more than 40,000 towers in the U.S., which accounted for more than half of its total revenue in 2017. Outside the U.S., American Tower’s greatest presence is in India and Brazil, where it operates roughly 75,000 and 19,000 towers, respectively. American Tower operates as a real estate investment trust.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AMT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $120.33 (USD) for AMT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AMT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $120.33 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.39 $161.41 $92.96
Terminal Growth Rate 1.40 $95.26 $157.94
Tax Rate 0.10 $130.01 $110.64
Cash Flow 5,093,852,079 $110.33 $130.32
Capital Expenditures -820,492,400 $118.89 $121.76
Long Term Debt 18,679,136,000 $122.44 $118.21

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $108.15 (USD) for AMT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $146.10 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Sprint (S:NYS), SBA Communications (SBAC:NAS), AT&T (T:NYS), T-Mobile US (TMUS:NAS) and Verizon Communications (VZ:NYS).

Company AMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.77 (USD)
Book Value/Share $12.10 (USD)
Sales/Share $16.80 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.24 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$314.29 (USD) 0.0
$27.39 (USD) 0.0
$55.52 (USD) 0.0
$45.11 (USD) 0.0
$98.43 (USD) 0.0
AMT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values S:NYS SBAC:NAS T:NYS TMUS:NAS VZ:NYS
63.59 PE Ratio 113.46 79.38 440.39 10.92 21.49 15.14
14.56 PB Ratio 2.26 0.92 0.00 1.23 2.48 4.43
10.49 PS Ratio 3.31 0.78 11.28 1.24 1.43 1.80
20.82 PCF Ratio 10.98 2.54 24.73 4.86 15.90 6.85
23.87 EV to EBITDA 10.65 5.01 27.29 6.50 6.22 8.25

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $156.90 (USD) for AMT:NYS

Company AMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.77 (USD)
Book Value/Share $12.10 (USD)
Sales/Share $16.80 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.24 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$157.85 (USD) 0
$99.89 (USD) 0
$155.10 (USD) 0
$168.35 (USD) 0
$203.29 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 56.99
PB Ratio 8.26
PS Ratio 9.23
PCF Ratio 19.89
EV to EBITDA 22.01

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AMT:NYS for the last 10 years was  8.22

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AMT:NYS and generated a book value of  $12.10 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $99.48 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for AMT:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for AMT:NYS for 2019 of $174.50 (USD).

AMT:NYS American Tower

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-2-27

Current Price: 176.15 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.71 4.23
# EPS Analysts 2 2
Mean Revenue 7,395.50 7,930.70
# Revenue Analysts 3 3
Mean Target Price 174.50
Mean Cash Flow 7.86 8.61
Mean EBITDA 4,550.20 4,870.10
Mean Net Income 1,654.70 1,868.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 21,217.20 21,932.80
Mean Tax Rate 7.00 7.00
Mean Growth Rate 20.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 873.00 880.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Advanced Disposal Servs (ADSW:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Advanced Disposal Servs(ADSW:NYS)

Industrials:Waste Management

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$26.70 (USD) 27/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$27.77 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 4.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $29.80 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $25.97 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $25.30 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ADSW:NYS USD)

Price 26.70
Range 26.44 – 26.88
52 week 21.62 – 27.76
Open 26.52
Vol / Avg. 359841/445443
Mkt cap 2.37B
P/E 242.73
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.11
Shares 88.69M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Advanced Disposal Services Inc provides fresh ideas and solutions to the business of a clean environment. It offers non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, recycling and disposal services to the commercial, industrial, municipal and residential customers. It offers other services, such as landfill gas-to-energy operations at municipal solid waste landfills; management of third-party owned landfills; customer service charges relating to overdue payments, and customer administrative fees relating to customers. Geographically, it operates through the Southeast, Midwest and Eastern regions of the United States, as well as from the Commonwealth of the Bahamas.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ADSW:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $19.79 (USD) for ADSW:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ADSW:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $19.79 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.09 $31.71 $11.88
Terminal Growth Rate 1.10 $12.67 $30.48
Tax Rate 0.33 $23.80 $15.78
Cash Flow 508,533,000 $16.07 $23.50
Capital Expenditures -180,620,000 $18.51 $21.07
Long Term Debt 2,237,900,000 $21.05 $18.53

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $25.97 (USD) for ADSW:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $33.14 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Clean Harbors (CLH:NYS), Covanta Holding (CVA:NYS), Casella Waste Systems (CWST:NAS), Darling Ingredients (DAR:NYS) and US Ecology (ECOL:NAS).

Company ADSW:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.11 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.25 (USD)
Sales/Share $17.26 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.32 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.30 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$2.36 (USD) 0.0
$31.95 (USD) 0.0
$27.11 (USD) 0.0
$15.64 (USD) 0.0
$52.79 (USD) 0.0
ADSW:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CLH:NYS CVA:NYS CWST:NAS DAR:NYS ECOL:NAS
45.82 PE Ratio 21.45 25.30 7.63 32.04 21.27 21.01
2.46 PB Ratio 3.12 2.77 4.18 0.00 1.55 3.97
1.46 PS Ratio 1.57 1.05 1.15 2.05 1.01 2.58
7.58 PCF Ratio 11.10 10.74 7.30 11.06 10.34 16.08
10.69 EV to EBITDA 12.28 10.26 10.71 15.12 10.30 15.03

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $25.96 (USD) for ADSW:NYS

Company ADSW:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.11 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.25 (USD)
Sales/Share $17.26 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.32 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.30 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$4.98 (USD) 0
$25.19 (USD) 0
$23.96 (USD) 0
$24.02 (USD) 0
$51.67 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 45.28
PB Ratio 2.46
PS Ratio 1.39
PCF Ratio 7.23
EV to EBITDA 12.02

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ADSW:NYS for the last 2 years was  2.46

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ADSW:NYS and generated a book value of  $10.28 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $25.30 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for ADSW:NYS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for ADSW:NYS for 2019 of $29.80 (USD).

ADSW:NYS Advanced Disposal Servs

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
5 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-2-26

Current Price: 26.7 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 0.66 0.78 0.83
# EPS Analysts 4 4 1
Mean Revenue 1,622.50 1,691.50 1,795.50
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 1
Mean Target Price 29.80
Mean Cash Flow 3.91 4.05 4.35
Mean EBITDA 448.40 478.80 503.00
Mean Net Income 56.20 67.80 75.60
Mean Debt Outstanding 1,773.60 1,644.10 1,665.40
Mean Tax Rate 27.00 27.00
Mean Growth Rate 10.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 192.60 199.30 215.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Allison Transmission (ALSN:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Allison Transmission(ALSN:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Auto Parts

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$50.27 (USD) 27/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$49.85 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 0.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $52.33 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $46.13 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ALSN:NYS USD)

Price 50.27
Range 50.05 – 51.69
52 week 37.45 – 53.44
Open 51.61
Vol / Avg. 1.01M/1.02M
Mkt cap 6.34B
P/E 10.52
Div/yield 0.60/0.01
EPS 4.78
Shares 126.13M
Beta 1.38

Company Description

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is a manufacturer of commercial duty automatic transmissions and hybrid propulsion systems. The transmissions are part of vehicles used in agriculture, mining, transportation, defense, and construction. The company also offers genuine parts and refurbishment and maintenance services for transmissions. The largest end market is the on-highway segment, including class 4 up to class 8 trucks, school buses, coaches and motorhomes. Allison Transmission generates the majority of its revenue in North America.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ALSN:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $81.29 (USD) for ALSN:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ALSN:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $81.29 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.34 $99.68 $67.91
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $69.40 $97.62
Tax Rate 0.21 $87.67 $74.90
Cash Flow 1,150,396,711 $76.07 $86.51
Capital Expenditures -56,760,000 $81.06 $81.52
Long Term Debt 2,160,700,000 $82.14 $80.43

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $46.13 (USD) for ALSN:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $23.29 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Autoliv (ALV:NYS), American Axle & Mfg Hldgs (AXL:NYS), BorgWarner (BWA:NYS), Dana (DAN:NYS) and Dorman Products (DORM:NAS).

Company ALSN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.78 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $19.44 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.65 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.13 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$70.30 (USD) -5.0
$13.83 (USD) 94.3
$20.29 (USD) 0.0
$44.99 (USD) -28.0
$61.38 (USD) 66.4
ALSN:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ALV:NYS AXL:NYS BWA:NYS DAN:NYS DORM:NAS
9.54 PE Ratio 14.71 18.53 4.14 15.43 11.83 23.61
8.98 PB Ratio 2.55 3.69 0.90 2.09 2.04 4.04
2.50 PS Ratio 1.04 0.81 0.23 0.82 0.32 3.05
8.62 PCF Ratio 11.30 11.86 2.25 7.73 6.02 28.64
8.47 EV to EBITDA 7.55 7.97 4.38 6.32 4.85 14.21

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $67.69 (USD) for ALSN:NYS

Company ALSN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.78 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $19.44 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.65 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.13 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$114.03 (USD) 0
$28.72 (USD) 0
$51.56 (USD) 0
$53.80 (USD) 0
$90.33 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.86
PB Ratio 5.30
PS Ratio 2.65
PCF Ratio 9.52
EV to EBITDA 11.10

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ALSN:NYS for the last 6 years was  5.29

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ALSN:NYS and generated a book value of  $5.22 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $27.63 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for ALSN:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for ALSN:NYS for 2019 of $52.33 (USD).

ALSN:NYS Allison Transmission

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 2 0 4.0000 Outperform 2019-2-26

Current Price: 50.27 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 4.99 4.85
# EPS Analysts 3 3
Mean Revenue 2,664.10 2,544.90
# Revenue Analysts 3 3
Mean Target Price 52.33
Mean Cash Flow 6.81 6.96
Mean EBITDA 1,131.10 1,085.20
Mean Net Income 635.70 597.80
Mean Debt Outstanding 1,969.00 1,654.30
Mean Tax Rate 22.75 22.50
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 108.70 103.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.