Xilinx (XLNX:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Xilinx(XLNX:NAS)

Technology:Semiconductors

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$91.21 (USD) 15/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$93.48 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 2.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $95.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $91.21 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (XLNX:NAS USD)

Price 91.21
Range 90.86 – 92.51
52 week 62.82 – 94.63
Open 91.18
Vol / Avg. 1.96M/2.68M
Mkt cap 23.08B
P/E 36.32
Div/yield 1.40/0.02
EPS 1.99
Shares 253.04M
Beta 0.90

Company Description

Founded in 1984, Xilinx is the top designer of programmable logic devices by market share. Its chips are critical in the performance of various devices in the communications, data processing, industrial, consumer, and automotive markets. Xilinx designs and sells chips, but it outsources manufacturing to third-party chip foundries such as United Microelectronics.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for XLNX:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $56.93 (USD) for XLNX:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

XLNX:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $56.93 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.37 $73.01 $46.24
Terminal Growth Rate 2.40 $47.24 $71.51
Tax Rate 0.32 $61.27 $52.60
Cash Flow 1,210,060,800 $53.92 $59.95
Capital Expenditures -36,107,800 $56.84 $57.02
Long Term Debt 1,586,106,000 $57.25 $56.62

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $91.21 (USD) for XLNX:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $83.22 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Analog Devices (ADI:NAS), Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM:NAS), NVIDIA (NVDA:NAS), Qualcomm (QCOM:NAS) and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS:NAS).

Company XLNX:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.32 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.66 (USD)
Sales/Share $10.76 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.60 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.51 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$47.03 (USD) -54.6
$185.69 (USD) 40.4
$52.62 (USD) 44.7
$52.39 (USD) -5.6
$51.88 (USD) -6.7
XLNX:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ADI:NAS MXIM:NAS NVDA:NAS QCOM:NAS SWKS:NAS
36.71 PE Ratio 20.27 21.62 28.25 17.85 0.00 13.38
8.82 PB Ratio 19.22 2.89 7.37 8.59 74.34 2.90
7.92 PS Ratio 4.89 5.19 5.69 6.74 3.66 3.17
23.67 PCF Ratio 16.43 13.18 17.94 19.91 21.38 9.74
19.97 EV to EBITDA 14.79 13.86 12.29 15.33 25.78 6.71

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $59.56 (USD) for XLNX:NAS

Company XLNX:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.32 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.66 (USD)
Sales/Share $10.76 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.60 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.51 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$58.43 (USD) 0
$52.17 (USD) 0
$68.89 (USD) 0
$64.87 (USD) 0
$53.45 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 25.18
PB Ratio 5.40
PS Ratio 6.40
PCF Ratio 18.03
EV to EBITDA 15.24

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  XLNX:NAS for the last 10 years was  5.24

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  XLNX:NAS and generated a book value of  $9.65 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $50.60 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for XLNX:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for XLNX:NAS for 2020 of $95.00 (USD).

XLNX:NAS Xilinx

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2019-1-14

Current Price: 91.21 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 3.27 3.66 4.12
# EPS Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Revenue 2,979.30 3,236.60 3,568.60
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 2
Mean Target Price 95.00
Mean Cash Flow 3.77 4.31
Mean EBITDA 977.90 1,059.70 1,181.70
Mean Net Income 833.00 923.70 700.60
Mean Debt Outstanding 908.90 240.30
Mean Tax Rate 10.50 11.50 11.50
Mean Growth Rate 15.85
Mean Capital Expenditure 64.70 67.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


CommVault Systems (CVLT:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

CommVault Systems(CVLT:NAS)

Technology:Software-Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$61.08 (USD) 15/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$62.04 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.6%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $65.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $63.67 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $49.90 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (CVLT:NAS USD)

Price 61.08
Range 59.92 – 61.25
52 week 49.75 – 71.80
Open 60.11
Vol / Avg. 234357/473883
Mkt cap 2.83B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.37
Shares 46.29M
Beta 1.19

Company Description

CommVault Systems Inc provides data and information management software applications and services. Its flagship Simpana Software is delivered on a unified platform with customizable licensed modules that provide backup and recovery, archive, replication, and analytic capabilities across physical, virtual, and cloud environments. The firm sells software licenses and services to large global enterprises, small and midsize businesses, and government agencies through both its salesforce and its network of reseller partners. Most of the firm’s revenue is generated in the United States, but the firm has a presence in many other countries.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CVLT:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $644.25 (USD) for CVLT:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CVLT:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $644.25 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.74 $726.73 $578.45
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $587.01 $716.29
Tax Rate -16.69 $646.07 $642.43
Cash Flow 181,334,545 $609.91 $678.60
Capital Expenditures -30,814,600 $641.11 $647.40
Long Term Debt 0 $644.25 $644.25

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $28.17 (USD) for CVLT:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $63.67 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were ACI Worldwide (ACIW:NAS), Blackbaud (BLKB:NAS), Ellie Mae (ELLI:NYS), Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX:NAS) and Verint Systems (VRNT:NAS).

Company CVLT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.51) (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.01 (USD)
Sales/Share $15.65 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.14 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.21 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$33.06 (USD) 13.4
$45.74 (USD) 15.0
$32.58 (USD) -42.1
$3.72 (USD) 0.0
CVLT:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ACIW:NAS BLKB:NAS ELLI:NYS MDRX:NAS VRNT:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 98.80 230.58 46.94 69.04 0.00 48.63
6.56 PB Ratio 3.67 3.33 8.40 2.76 1.55 2.30
3.78 PS Ratio 2.92 3.22 3.58 4.71 0.82 2.27
27.63 PCF Ratio 15.24 20.26 15.85 17.87 9.13 13.06
156.83 EV to EBITDA 17.88 17.25 24.54 22.39 9.87 15.37

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $44.80 (USD) for CVLT:NAS

Company CVLT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.51) (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.01 (USD)
Sales/Share $15.65 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.14 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.21 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$48.22 (USD) 0
$58.82 (USD) 0
$54.77 (USD) 0
$17.42 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 242.48
PB Ratio 5.35
PS Ratio 3.76
PCF Ratio 25.61
EV to EBITDA 83.70

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CVLT:NAS for the last 10 years was  5.40

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CVLT:NAS and generated a book value of  $9.25 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $49.90 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for CVLT:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for CVLT:NAS for 2020 of $65.00 (USD).

CVLT:NAS CommVault Systems

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-1-14

Current Price: 61.08 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 1.54 2.34 3.05
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 715.00 780.00 850.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 65.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Integrated Device Tech (IDTI:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Integrated Device Tech(IDTI:NAS)

Technology:Semiconductors

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$48.15 (USD) 14/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$49.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $49.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (IDTI:NAS USD)

Price 48.15
Range 48.15 – 48.42
52 week 26.96 – 48.44
Open 48.36
Vol / Avg. 1.49M/2.52M
Mkt cap 6.21B
P/E 2343.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.09
Shares 129.02M
Beta 1.49

Company Description

Integrated Device Technology Inc provides mixed-signal solutions including radio frequency, timing, wireless power transfer, serial switching, interfaces, and sensing. The firm’s products are organized into two segments based on end markets: communications; and computing, consumer, and industrial. These products are used for development in 4G infrastructure, network communications, cloud data centers, and power management for mobile devices. Roughly half of the firm’s revenue is generated in Hong Kong, with the rest coming from South Korea, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for IDTI:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $20.45 (USD) for IDTI:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

IDTI:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $20.45 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 12.11 $23.29 $18.17
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $18.53 $22.85
Tax Rate 0.27 $22.00 $18.90
Cash Flow 418,822,871 $19.27 $21.62
Capital Expenditures -22,230,800 $20.39 $20.50
Long Term Debt 278,798,000 $20.56 $20.34

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $17.91 (USD) for IDTI:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $24.67 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Cypress Semiconductor (CY:NAS), Diodes (DIOD:NAS), Microchip Technology (MCHP:NAS), ON Semiconductor (ON:NAS) and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS:NAS).

Company IDTI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.02 (USD)
Sales/Share $6.89 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.08 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$33.16 (USD) -18.5
$12.66 (USD) -8.8
$16.00 (USD) -0.1
$15.09 (USD) 40.4
$14.77 (USD) -22.6
IDTI:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CY:NAS DIOD:NAS MCHP:NAS ON:NAS SWKS:NAS
345.93 PE Ratio 236.86 97.85 38.40 1027.43 7.24 13.38
9.65 PB Ratio 2.52 2.44 1.78 3.29 2.19 2.90
7.03 PS Ratio 2.32 1.88 1.37 3.92 1.26 3.17
23.30 PCF Ratio 9.06 8.76 8.06 12.02 6.73 9.74
29.46 EV to EBITDA 10.79 10.80 10.45 19.35 6.64 6.71

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $26.16 (USD) for IDTI:NAS

Company IDTI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.02 (USD)
Sales/Share $6.89 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.08 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$3.90 (USD) 0
$22.23 (USD) 0
$35.48 (USD) 0
$42.63 (USD) 0
$26.56 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 27.88
PB Ratio 4.43
PS Ratio 5.15
PCF Ratio 20.50
EV to EBITDA 19.41

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  IDTI:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.41

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  IDTI:NAS and generated a book value of  $5.00 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $22.03 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for IDTI:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for IDTI:NAS for 2020 of $49.00 (USD).

IDTI:NAS Integrated Device Tech

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-1-10

Current Price: 48.15 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 1.86 2.13
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 947.50 1,019.90
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 49.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 255.80 289.90
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 10.00 10.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Boot Barn Holdings(BOOT:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$22.00 (USD) 14/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$20.96 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 4.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $24.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $16.86 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $20.06 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BOOT:NYS USD)

Price 22.00
Range 21.13 – 22.41
52 week 15.51 – 31.39
Open 21.32
Vol / Avg. 3.95M/1.13M
Mkt cap 623.26M
P/E 22.69
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.05
Shares 28.33M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Boot Barn Holdings Inc operates specialty retail stores. The company sells western and work‑related footwear, apparel and accessories in the United States. It is a single operating segment, which includes net sales generated from its retail stores and e-commerce websites.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BOOT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $8.18 (USD) for BOOT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BOOT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $8.18 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 15.51 $9.75 $6.85
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $7.07 $9.48
Tax Rate 0.07 $9.33 $7.03
Cash Flow 103,824,000 $6.97 $9.39
Capital Expenditures -21,484,600 $7.99 $8.37
Long Term Debt 258,136,000 $8.64 $7.72

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $16.86 (USD) for BOOT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $15.73 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF:NYS), Buckle (BKE:NYS), Chico’s FAS (CHS:NYS), DSW (DSW:NYS) and Genesco (GCO:NYS).

Company BOOT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.37 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.29 (USD)
Sales/Share $25.54 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.19 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.23 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$30.89 (USD) 13.1
$12.81 (USD) 12.3
$13.75 (USD) -43.1
$5.59 (USD) 57.4
$11.21 (USD) 78.0
BOOT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ANF:NYS BKE:NYS CHS:NYS DSW:NYS GCO:NYS
12.43 PE Ratio 22.55 26.73 9.77 8.92 54.89 12.44
2.05 PB Ratio 1.55 1.17 2.30 1.08 2.11 1.07
0.67 PS Ratio 0.54 0.38 1.04 0.32 0.66 0.29
7.78 PCF Ratio 6.02 4.17 8.56 3.66 10.07 3.66
9.43 EV to EBITDA 5.02 3.29 4.58 2.88 8.34 6.02

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $26.09 (USD) for BOOT:NYS

Company BOOT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.37 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.29 (USD)
Sales/Share $25.54 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.19 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.23 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$35.71 (USD) 0
$19.33 (USD) 0
$17.97 (USD) 0
$30.68 (USD) 0
$26.76 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 26.06
PB Ratio 2.33
PS Ratio 0.70
PCF Ratio 14.01
EV to EBITDA 12.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BOOT:NYS for the last 4 years was  2.33

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BOOT:NYS and generated a book value of  $8.61 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $20.06 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for BOOT:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for BOOT:NYS for 2020 of $24.00 (USD).

BOOT:NYS Boot Barn Holdings

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-1-10

Current Price: 22 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 1.24 1.35 1.58
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 764.90 834.70 909.10
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 24.00
Mean Cash Flow 1.72 1.69 1.98
Mean EBITDA 78.80 90.30 100.80
Mean Net Income 35.90 39.70 47.10
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 16.70 25.00 25.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 35.50 25.90 26.40

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


McKesson (MCK:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

McKesson(MCK:NYS)

Healthcare:Medical Distribution

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$122.04 (USD) 10/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$117.84 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 3.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $129.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $94.32 (USD)
Multiples: $131.39 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (MCK:NYS USD)

Price 122.04
Range 117.45 – 122.59
52 week 108.23 – 176.72
Open 118.08
Vol / Avg. 2.16M/2.05M
Mkt cap 23.84B
P/E 187.92
Div/yield 1.30/0.01
EPS 0.32
Shares 195.38M
Beta 1.06

Company Description

McKesson is a major distributor of pharmaceuticals and medical products in the United States. The firm plays a critical role along the pharmaceutical supply chain as it is able to procure and distribute drugs more efficiently than its pharmacy clients and pharma manufacturing suppliers.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MCK:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $333.33 (USD) for MCK:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MCK:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $333.33 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.57 $428.29 $270.19
Terminal Growth Rate 2.60 $276.25 $419.16
Tax Rate 0.22 $354.11 $312.54
Cash Flow 4,663,990,800 $316.10 $350.55
Capital Expenditures -389,400,000 $331.98 $334.68
Long Term Debt 8,107,000,000 $335.40 $331.25

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $94.32 (USD) for MCK:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $124.18 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were AmerisourceBergen (ABC:NYS), Cardinal Health (CAH:NYS) and Henry Schein (HSIC:NAS).

Company MCK:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.65 (USD)
Book Value/Share $47.73 (USD)
Sales/Share $1,033.96 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $16.29 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$12.51 (USD) -19.4
$185.36 (USD) 12.6
$386.22 (USD) -69.8
$168.00 (USD) -48.3
$72.05 (USD) -12.6
MCK:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ABC:NYS CAH:NYS HSIC:NAS
175.35 PE Ratio 19.25 9.88 18.66 29.19
2.31 PB Ratio 3.88 5.38 2.25 4.03
0.11 PS Ratio 0.37 0.10 0.10 0.92
6.78 PCF Ratio 12.68 11.61 7.13 19.30
19.94 EV to EBITDA 9.98 9.37 7.09 13.47

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $131.39 (USD) for MCK:NYS

Company MCK:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.65 (USD)
Book Value/Share $47.73 (USD)
Sales/Share $1,033.96 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $16.29 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$12.07 (USD) 0
$193.87 (USD) 0
$195.98 (USD) 0
$176.32 (USD) 0
$78.73 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.57
PB Ratio 4.06
PS Ratio 0.19
PCF Ratio 10.82
EV to EBITDA 10.90

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MCK:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.85

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MCK:NYS and generated a book value of  $46.17 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $177.97 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for MCK:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for MCK:NYS for 2020 of $129.00 (USD).

MCK:NYS McKesson

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 2 1 3.0000 Hold 2019-1-9

Current Price: 122.04 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 13.53 14.12 14.75
# EPS Analysts 4 3 1
Mean Revenue 214,825.40 221,526.40 228,560.60
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 129.00
Mean Cash Flow 15.44 13.78 23.82
Mean EBITDA 4,076.70 4,285.30 4,545.80
Mean Net Income 2,700.40 2,785.60 2,815.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 5,223.30 5,223.30 5,223.30
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 7.64
Mean Capital Expenditure 578.50 590.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


JM Smucker (SJM:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

JM Smucker(SJM:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Packaged Foods

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$99.68 (USD) 09/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$97.33 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $97.33 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (SJM:NYS USD)

Price 99.68
Range 98.61 – 99.98
52 week 93.16 – 131.53
Open 99.62
Vol / Avg. 1.1M/1.38M
Mkt cap 11.34B
P/E 8.64
Div/yield 3.09/0.03
EPS 11.78
Shares 113.76M
Beta 0.50

Company Description

J.M. Smucker makes, sells, and distributes consumer food, beverage, and pet food products. In addition to its spreads business (sold under its namesake label), the firm owns a number of other iconic U.S. brands, including Jif, Folgers, Crisco, Milk-Bone, and Kibbles ‘n Bits. Smucker also produces and sells Dunkin’ Donuts-branded coffee under license. About 92% of fiscal 2018 sales were generated in the U.S., with Canada the firm’s second-largest market at about 6% of the year’s revenue. In fiscal 2018, coffee constituted 34% of sales, dog food 11%, pet snacks 10%, peanut butter 10%, and cat food 9%. Sales to Walmart and its subsidiaries accounted for over 30% of the firm’s sales in fiscal 2018.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for SJM:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $138.26 (USD) for SJM:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

SJM:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $138.26 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.67 $185.48 $106.88
Terminal Growth Rate 0.70 $109.95 $180.84
Tax Rate 0.32 $151.28 $125.25
Cash Flow 1,693,143,601 $128.23 $148.29
Capital Expenditures -242,340,000 $136.89 $139.63
Long Term Debt 5,351,700,000 $140.61 $135.91

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $181.23 (USD) for SJM:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $169.69 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Campbell Soup (CPB:NYS), General Mills (GIS:NYS), Hormel Foods (HRL:NYS), Lancaster Colony (LANC:NAS) and McCormick & Co (MKC.V:NYS).

Company SJM:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $11.78 (USD)
Book Value/Share $70.59 (USD)
Sales/Share $67.30 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $10.87 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.81 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$341.95 (USD) -40.1
$391.57 (USD) -62.3
$165.11 (USD) 51.0
$142.31 (USD) -64.0
$250.92 (USD) 14.2
SJM:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CPB:NYS GIS:NYS HRL:NYS LANC:NAS MKC.V:NYS
7.94 PE Ratio 29.03 55.92 11.35 22.95 33.56 21.37
1.32 PB Ratio 5.55 7.06 3.49 4.07 7.21 5.89
1.39 PS Ratio 2.45 1.08 1.43 2.43 3.92 3.41
8.60 PCF Ratio 17.02 7.39 8.69 18.69 29.87 20.44
11.56 EV to EBITDA 19.59 23.16 12.68 16.78 22.71 22.60

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $167.11 (USD) for SJM:NYS

Company SJM:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $11.78 (USD)
Book Value/Share $70.59 (USD)
Sales/Share $67.30 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $10.87 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.81 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$260.42 (USD) 0
$142.58 (USD) 0
$132.56 (USD) 0
$132.11 (USD) 0
$167.87 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 22.11
PB Ratio 2.02
PS Ratio 1.97
PCF Ratio 12.15
EV to EBITDA 13.10

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  SJM:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.01

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  SJM:NYS and generated a book value of  $70.70 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $141.80 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for SJM:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for SJM:NYS for 2020 of $97.33 (USD).

SJM:NYS JM Smucker

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 2 2 2.4000 Underperform 2019-1-8

Current Price: 99.68 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 7.74 8.15
# EPS Analysts 4 3
Mean Revenue 7,928.10 7,908.50
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 97.33
Mean Cash Flow 11.38 12.78
Mean EBITDA 1,658.40 1,651.50
Mean Net Income 930.30 927.50
Mean Debt Outstanding 5,874.20 5,377.70
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 2.93
Mean Capital Expenditure 354.10 316.60

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


PetMed Express (PETS:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

PetMed Express(PETS:NAS)

Consumer Defensive:Pharmaceutical Retailers

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$24.32 (USD) 09/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$24.67 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $21.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $30.18 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (PETS:NAS USD)

Price 24.32
Range 23.65 – 24.40
52 week 22.42 – 53.24
Open 24.04
Vol / Avg. 408935/640808
Mkt cap 502.79M
P/E 14.63
Div/yield 0.85/0.03
EPS 1.82
Shares 20.67M
Beta 0.73

Company Description

PetMed Express Inc along with its and subsidiaries is a leading nationwide pet pharmacy. The company markets prescription and non-prescription pet medications, health products, and supplies for dogs and cats, direct to the consumer. The company generates its revenue by selling pet medications and pet supplies primarily to retail consumers.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for PETS:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $32.12 (USD) for PETS:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

PETS:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $32.12 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.95 $38.68 $27.45
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $27.96 $37.96
Tax Rate 0.31 $34.38 $29.85
Cash Flow 65,714,000 $30.43 $33.81
Capital Expenditures -6,480,000 $31.96 $32.28
Long Term Debt 0 $32.12 $32.12

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $2.51 (USD) for PETS:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $13.75 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and Rite Aid (RAD:NYS).

Company PETS:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.08 (USD)
Book Value/Share $6.28 (USD)
Sales/Share $13.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.93 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.65 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -18.9
$3.26 (USD) 31.2
$0.48 (USD) 53.9
$0.00 (USD) -1.9
$0.00 (USD) -1.6
PETS:NAS Ratios Used Average Values RAD:NYS
11.18 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00
3.70 PB Ratio 0.52 0.52
1.66 PS Ratio 0.03 0.03
12.05 PCF Ratio 0.00 0.00
6.96 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $30.75 (USD) for PETS:NAS

Company PETS:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.08 (USD)
Book Value/Share $6.28 (USD)
Sales/Share $13.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.93 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.65 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$40.19 (USD) 0
$30.60 (USD) 0
$25.10 (USD) 0
$29.98 (USD) 0
$27.90 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.32
PB Ratio 4.87
PS Ratio 1.79
PCF Ratio 15.53
EV to EBITDA 10.52

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  PETS:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.79

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  PETS:NAS and generated a book value of  $6.30 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $30.18 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for PETS:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for PETS:NAS for 2020 of $21.00 (USD).

PETS:NAS PetMed Express

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 0 1 1.0000 Sell 2019-1-8

Current Price: 24.32 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 2.17 2.26 2.38
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 294.80 307.00 319.80
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 21.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.79 2.94 3.11
Mean EBITDA 57.10 60.30 63.80
Mean Net Income 44.50 46.30 48.90
Mean Debt Outstanding -87.10 -87.10 -87.10
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Houlihan Lokey (HLI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Houlihan Lokey(HLI:NYS)

Financial Services:Capital Markets

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$41.11 (USD) 09/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$41.74 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $48.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $35.75 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $34.95 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (HLI:NYS USD)

Price 41.11
Range 39.81 – 41.32
52 week 34.76 – 52.89
Open 41.07
Vol / Avg. 644869/329819
Mkt cap 2.7B
P/E 17.09
Div/yield 0.80/0.02
EPS 2.60
Shares 65.76M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Houlihan Lokey Inc is an investment bank with expertise in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, financial restructuring, valuation, and strategic consulting. The firm serves corporations, institutions, and governments worldwide with offices in the United States, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. The company operates in three segments. In Corporate Finance business segment, it provides M&A and capital markets advisory services. Through Financial Restructuring business segment, the company advises on some of the complex restructurings around the world. Through Financial Advisory Services business segment, it provides valuation and financial opinion, and financial and strategic consulting practices in the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for HLI:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $34.95 (USD) for HLI:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

HLI:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $34.95 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.04 $40.76 $30.58
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $31.12 $40.04
Tax Rate 0.21 $37.19 $32.71
Cash Flow 232,496,096 $33.13 $36.76
Capital Expenditures -7,687,800 $34.89 $35.00
Long Term Debt 0 $34.95 $34.95

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $30.84 (USD) for HLI:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $28.71 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Evercore (EVR:NYS), INTL FCStone (INTL:NAS), LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA:NAS), PJT Partners (PJT:NYS) and Stifel Financial (SF:NYS).

Company HLI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.57 (USD)
Book Value/Share $12.60 (USD)
Sales/Share $15.12 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.01 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.42 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$36.46 (USD) 0.0
$38.14 (USD) 0.0
$26.30 (USD) 0.0
$22.30 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
HLI:NYS Ratios Used Average Values EVR:NYS INTL:NAS LPLA:NAS PJT:NYS SF:NYS
14.32 PE Ratio 14.19 16.76 12.75 14.61 0.00 12.63
2.92 PB Ratio 3.03 4.34 1.38 5.41 0.00 0.99
2.43 PS Ratio 1.74 1.77 1.19 3.25 1.35 1.13
12.23 PCF Ratio 7.47 6.47 0.00 10.85 5.09 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $45.25 (USD) for HLI:NYS

Company HLI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.57 (USD)
Book Value/Share $12.60 (USD)
Sales/Share $15.12 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.01 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.42 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$53.64 (USD) 0
$36.88 (USD) 0
$40.15 (USD) 0
$50.34 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 20.87
PB Ratio 2.93
PS Ratio 2.66
PCF Ratio 16.73
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  HLI:NYS for the last 3 years was  2.93

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  HLI:NYS and generated a book value of  $12.22 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $35.75 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for HLI:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for HLI:NYS for 2020 of $48.00 (USD).

HLI:NYS Houlihan Lokey

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-1-8

Current Price: 41.11 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 2.60 2.81 2.93
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 999.40 1,052.10 1,093.30
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 48.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.79 3.03 3.16
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 170.70 181.80 189.60
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


American Outdoor Brands (AOBC:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

American Outdoor Brands(AOBC:NAS)

Industrials:Aerospace & Defense

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$13.47 (USD) 08/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$13.21 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $15.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $10.52 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AOBC:NAS USD)

Price 13.47
Range 13.12 – 13.54
52 week 9.00 – 15.75
Open 13.25
Vol / Avg. 709814/792428
Mkt cap 734.65M
P/E 26.04
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.37
Shares 54.54M
Beta -0.06

Company Description

American Outdoor Brands Corp is a manufacturer of firearms. It is a manufacturer, designer, and provider of consumer products for the shooting, hunting, and rugged outdoor enthusiast. The company manufactures handguns, modern sporting rifles, and handcuffs in the United States. It is also an active participant in the hunting rifle and suppressor markets. The group also provides shooting, hunting, and rugged outdoor products and accessories, including knives and cutting tools, sighting lasers, shooting supplies, tree saws, and survival gear. It has two reporting segments: Firearms which includes the firearms and manufacturing services divisions and Outdoor Products and Accessories which includes the outdoor products and accessories and electro-optics divisions.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AOBC:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $20.81 (USD) for AOBC:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AOBC:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $20.81 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.61 $26.75 $16.84
Terminal Growth Rate 1.60 $17.07 $26.42
Tax Rate -0.14 $22.21 $19.41
Cash Flow 99,825,266 $18.84 $22.78
Capital Expenditures -34,015,800 $20.25 $21.38
Long Term Debt 171,505,000 $20.97 $20.66

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $10.52 (USD) for AOBC:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $26.76 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were AAR (AIR:NYS), Aerojet Rocketdyne Hldgs (AJRD:NYS), Astronics (ATRO:NAS), National Presto Indus (NPK:NYS) and Sturm Ruger & Co (RGR:NYS).

Company AOBC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.61 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.00 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.84 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.44 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$16.41 (USD) -59.3
$27.81 (USD) -42.0
$17.29 (USD) -24.7
$29.96 (USD) -87.9
$16.11 (USD) 0.0
AOBC:NAS Ratios Used Average Values AIR:NYS AJRD:NYS ATRO:NAS NPK:NYS RGR:NYS
21.08 PE Ratio 26.90 16.52 45.75 34.50 18.56 19.14
1.61 PB Ratio 3.48 1.40 6.96 3.06 2.31 3.66
1.12 PS Ratio 1.51 0.69 1.33 1.30 2.32 1.91
6.97 PCF Ratio 18.09 33.67 9.33 32.43 8.21 6.83
8.98 EV to EBITDA 11.19 11.90 9.85 15.98 10.13 8.08

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $16.18 (USD) for AOBC:NAS

Company AOBC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.61 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.00 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.84 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.44 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$8.95 (USD) 0
$30.12 (USD) 0
$16.03 (USD) 0
$15.29 (USD) 0
$10.53 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 14.68
PB Ratio 3.77
PS Ratio 1.40
PCF Ratio 8.29
EV to EBITDA 7.31

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AOBC:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.67

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AOBC:NAS and generated a book value of  $8.04 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $29.49 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AOBC:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AOBC:NAS for 2020 of $15.00 (USD).

AOBC:NAS American Outdoor Brands

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Oracle (ORCL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Oracle(ORCL:NYS)

Technology:Software-Infrastructure

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$47.88 (USD) 08/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$47.05 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $52.63 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $38.68 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ORCL:NYS USD)

Price 47.88
Range 47.20 – 48.36
52 week 42.69 – 52.97
Open 47.93
Vol / Avg. 16.23M/25.86M
Mkt cap 171.84B
P/E 48.87
Div/yield 0.76/0.02
EPS 0.90
Shares 3.59B
Beta 1.05

Company Description

Oracle sells a wide range of enterprise IT solutions, including databases, middleware, applications, and hardware. While software licenses, support, and maintenance continue to represent roughly 70% of revenue, the firm is undergoing a mix shift toward cloud-based subscriptions that should necessitate continued heavy investment in the business model transition. Oracle offers software-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and infrastructure-as-a-service offerings. Legacy offerings include Oracle Database software and Oracle Fusion Middleware.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ORCL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $73.79 (USD) for ORCL:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ORCL:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $73.79 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.85 $96.11 $58.97
Terminal Growth Rate 2.90 $60.38 $93.99
Tax Rate 0.19 $78.62 $68.96
Cash Flow 18,572,215,200 $69.87 $77.71
Capital Expenditures 0 $73.79 $73.79
Long Term Debt 54,056,000,000 $74.54 $73.04

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $35.14 (USD) for ORCL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $41.45 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and VMware (VMW:NYS).

Company ORCL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.06 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.52 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.76 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$40.60 (USD) -67.9
$43.88 (USD) -31.1
$64.15 (USD) 16.3
$45.93 (USD) -35.5
$56.19 (USD) -55.1
ORCL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values VMW:NYS
42.59 PE Ratio 38.30 38.30
5.30 PB Ratio 5.15 5.15
4.58 PS Ratio 6.51 6.51
12.00 PCF Ratio 16.19 16.19
9.57 EV to EBITDA 12.86 12.86

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $38.68 (USD) for ORCL:NYS

Company ORCL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.06 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.52 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.76 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$20.49 (USD) 0
$31.60 (USD) 0
$48.28 (USD) 0
$48.86 (USD) 0
$44.16 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.33
PB Ratio 3.71
PS Ratio 4.90
PCF Ratio 12.99
EV to EBITDA 10.11

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ORCL:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.71

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ORCL:NYS and generated a book value of  $7.65 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $28.39 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 8 analysts that provide a valuation for ORCL:NYS. The 8 analysts have a concensus valuation for ORCL:NYS for 2019 of $52.63 (USD).

ORCL:NYS Oracle

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 7 0 3.7273 Outperform 2019-1-7

Current Price: 47.88 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 3.42 3.65 3.67
# EPS Analysts 10 9 5
Mean Revenue 39,793.30 40,582.30 41,389.70
# Revenue Analysts 7 7 5
Mean Target Price 52.63
Mean Cash Flow 4.07 4.46 4.76
Mean EBITDA 18,403.60 19,100.10 18,048.80
Mean Net Income 12,773.00 13,258.90 13,585.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 1,329.80 -882.90 -14,078.50
Mean Tax Rate 16.70 20.00 20.00
Mean Growth Rate 8.06
Mean Capital Expenditure 1,775.00 1,771.00 1,793.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.