Pine Cliff Energy (PNE.R:TSX) Is Fully Valued

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I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Fully Valued Stocks on TSX

Today we are looking at companies that are considered fully valued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In this table we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on TSX

Today’s data is for companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
PNE.R Pine Cliff Energy Ltd 2019 0.920000 0.3682 CAD 11

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

PNE.R:TSX Pine Cliff Energy

http://www.pinecliffenergy.com
Pine Cliff Energy has 91 employees and is headquartered in Canada.
Pine Cliff Energy Ltd is a natural gas-focused, exploration and production company. It is mainly engaged in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

AllianceBernstein Holding (AB:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

AllianceBernstein Holding(AB:NYS)

Financial Services:Asset Management

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$29.84 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$26.63 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 10.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $29.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $24.19 (USD)
Comparables: $24.39 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AB:NYS USD)

Price 29.84
Range 29.40 – 30.19
52 week 23.68 – 31.17
Open 29.96
Vol / Avg. 913017/374311
Mkt cap 2.88B
P/E 11.94
Div/yield 2.88/0.10
EPS 2.50
Shares 96.56M
Beta 1.29

Company Description

AllianceBernstein Holding LP provides investment management services to institutional (48% of AUM), retail (35%), and private (17%) clients through a collection of products that includes mutual funds, hedge funds, and separately managed accounts. At the end of December 2018, the firm had $516 billion in managed assets, composed primarily of fixed-income (53% of AUM) and equity (36%) strategies, with other investments (made up of the firm’s asset allocation services and certain other alternative investments) accounting for the remainder. The company also provides sell-side research and brokerage services through its Sanford Bernstein subsidiary. Through its ownership of 72% of the outstanding shares of AXA Equitable Holdings, the French insurer AXA holds a 65% economic interest in AB.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AB:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $588.85 (USD) for AB:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AB:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $588.85 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.97 $664.08 $528.75
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $537.87 $652.63
Tax Rate 0.10 $621.73 $555.98
Cash Flow 6,343,620,549 $559.41 $618.30
Capital Expenditures 0 $588.85 $588.85
Long Term Debt 0 $588.85 $588.85

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $24.39 (USD) for AB:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $24.52 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Ares Management (ARES:NYS), Federated Investors (FII:NYS), Legg Mason Inc-LeggMason (LM:NYS), Moelis & Co (MC:NYS) and Nuveen Municipal Credit (NZF:NYS).

Company AB:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.70 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.78 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$53.77 (USD) -30.3
$42.04 (USD) -56.5
$39.10 (USD) 0.0
$24.54 (USD) -89.1
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
AB:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ARES:NYS FII:NYS LM:NYS MC:NYS NZF:NYS
11.25 PE Ratio 21.51 32.09 11.99 9.06 32.89 0.00
1.98 PB Ratio 2.73 3.57 3.06 0.66 5.40 0.94
10.19 PS Ratio 13.07 1.86 2.23 0.84 2.55 57.87
11.31 PCF Ratio 9.11 0.00 15.89 5.12 6.31 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 10.43 16.25 8.51 8.59 8.36 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $29.39 (USD) for AB:NYS

Company AB:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.70 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.78 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$30.09 (USD) 0
$24.45 (USD) 0
$28.68 (USD) 0
$34.33 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 12.03
PB Ratio 1.59
PS Ratio 9.59
PCF Ratio 12.74
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AB:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.57

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AB:NYS and generated a book value of  $15.43 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $24.19 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AB:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AB:NYS for 2019 of $29.00 (USD).

AB:NYS AllianceBernstein Holding

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 2 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 29.84 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.44 2.54
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 3,093.60 3,396.60
# Revenue Analysts 2 1
Mean Target Price 29.00
Mean Cash Flow 5.52 9.38
Mean EBITDA 565.00
Mean Net Income 232.40 247.10
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 0.64
Mean Capital Expenditure 35.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Aspen Insurance Holdings(AHL:NYS)

Financial Services:Insurance-Reinsurance

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$42.74 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$40.28 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 5.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $42.75 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $36.65 (USD)
Multiples: $40.13 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AHL:NYS USD)

Price 42.74
Range 42.73 – 42.75
52 week 35.05 – 45.35
Open 42.74
Vol / Avg. 20.69M/2M
Mkt cap 2.56B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.72/0.02
EPS -2.97
Shares 59.86M
Beta 0.16

Company Description

Aspen Insurance Holdings is a Bermudian insurance and reinsurance company. The company operates through subsidiaries that include Aspen Insurance UK, Aspen Underwriting, Aspen Bermuda, Aspen Specialty Insurance, and Aspen American Insurance Corporation. Aspen UK also has branches in Europe, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Australia, and Canada. The company’s business is divided into two segments: Aspen Insurance and Aspen Reinsurance. Aspen Insurance consists of property and casualty insurance, marine, aviation and energy insurance, and financial and professional lines insurance. Aspen Reinsurance comprises property reinsurance, casualty reinsurance, and specialty reinsurance.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AHL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($11.95) (USD) for AHL:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $32.99 (USD) for AHL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $58.66 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Everest Re Group (RE:NYS), RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR:NYS) and Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE:NYS).

Company AHL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.97) (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.41 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($6.41) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.18) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -36.0
$47.20 (USD) -22.1
$55.96 (USD) -47.8
($7.12) (USD) -75.8
$0.00 (USD) 70.9
AHL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values RE:NYS RNR:NYS TPRE:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 28.14 8.52 28.11 47.77
0.90 PB Ratio 1.02 1.07 1.33 0.66
1.07 PS Ratio 6.50 1.20 16.64 1.66
0.00 PCF Ratio 8.79 13.46 4.12 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $40.13 (USD) for AHL:NYS

Company AHL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.97) (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.41 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($6.41) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.18) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$38.47 (USD) 0
$41.79 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 9.90
PB Ratio 0.83
PS Ratio 1.07
PCF Ratio 6.01
EV to EBITDA 4.36

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AHL:NYS for the last 10 years was  0.83

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AHL:NYS and generated a book value of  $44.40 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $36.65 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AHL:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AHL:NYS for 2019 of $42.75 (USD).

AHL:NYS Aspen Insurance Holdings

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 42.74 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.47 3.87
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 2,333.50 2,431.20
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 42.75
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 177.80 227.70
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP:ASE) and Bluerock Residential (BRG:ASE) Are Fully Valued

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Fully Valued Stocks on AMEX

Today we are looking at companies that are considered fully valued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In this table we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on AMEX

Today’s data is for companies listed on the American Stock Exchange.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
CQP Cheniere Energy Partners LP 2019 42.500000 38.2500 USD 4
BRG Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc 2019 10.580000 10.1667 USD 3
SNMP Sanchez Midstream Partners LP 2019 3.230000 3.0000 USD 1

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

CQP:ASE Cheniere Energy Partners

http://www.cheniereenergypartners.com
Cheniere Energy Partners has 1230 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Cheniere Energy Partners LP engages in the liquified natural gas export business. The firm operates through its Sabine Pass liquefaction/terminal/pipeline facilities in Louisiana.

BRG:ASE Bluerock Residential

http://www.bluerockresidential.com
Bluerock Residential has None employees and is headquartered in United States.
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc invests in institutional-quality apartment properties in US growth markets. The Company’s objective is to maximize returns through investments in Class A institutional-quality apartment properties in United States.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Corning (GLW:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Corning(GLW:NYS)

Technology:Electronic Components

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$34.04 (USD) 13/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$32.17 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 5.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $35.50 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $27.18 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (GLW:NYS USD)

Price 34.04
Range 33.77 – 34.20
52 week 26.35 – 36.13
Open 34.20
Vol / Avg. 3.84M/6.52M
Mkt cap 26.78B
P/E 30.12
Div/yield 0.72/0.02
EPS 1.13
Shares 786.76M
Beta 1.21

Company Description

Corning Inc is a leading supplier of advanced glass substrates used in LCDs, fiber-optic cabling, and a variety of other materials science products. Corning operates in five segments: display technologies, optical communications, environmental technologies, specialty materials, and life sciences. Although headquartered in New York, the company’s operations and geographic reach span the globe, with most of Corning’s revenue generated in Asia-Pacific.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for GLW:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $50.08 (USD) for GLW:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

GLW:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $50.08 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.62 $62.71 $41.28
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $42.14 $61.46
Tax Rate 0.29 $54.36 $45.80
Cash Flow 4,162,848,000 $47.04 $53.13
Capital Expenditures -13,600,000 $50.08 $50.09
Long Term Debt 3,923,000,000 $50.33 $49.84

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $0.00 (USD) for GLW:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $52.65 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and Amphenol (APH:NYS).

Company GLW:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.13 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.61 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.10 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.17 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -66.0
$0.00 (USD) -38.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
($6.37) (USD) -61.8
$0.00 (USD) -36.0
GLW:NYS Ratios Used Average Values APH:NYS
29.43 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00
2.28 PB Ratio 0.00 0.00
2.77 PS Ratio 0.00 0.00
10.72 PCF Ratio 0.00 0.00
10.75 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $26.12 (USD) for GLW:NYS

Company GLW:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.13 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.61 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.10 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.17 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$14.58 (USD) 0
$22.84 (USD) 0
$36.45 (USD) 0
$33.81 (USD) 0
$22.94 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 12.90
PB Ratio 1.56
PS Ratio 3.04
PCF Ratio 10.90
EV to EBITDA 7.23

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  GLW:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.55

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  GLW:NYS and generated a book value of  $17.50 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $27.18 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for GLW:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for GLW:NYS for 2019 of $35.50 (USD).

GLW:NYS Corning

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 0 3.8000 Outperform 2019-2-12

Current Price: 34.04 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 2.02 2.29 2.51
# EPS Analysts 5 4 2
Mean Revenue 12,166.20 12,899.20 14,130.50
# Revenue Analysts 4 3 1
Mean Target Price 35.50
Mean Cash Flow 3.37 3.69 3.83
Mean EBITDA 3,528.30 3,866.40 4,041.60
Mean Net Income 1,782.90 1,965.20 2,213.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 7,790.90 7,084.90 6,197.20
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 9.98
Mean Capital Expenditure 2,050.00 1,643.70 1,300.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


HubSpot (HUBS:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

HubSpot(HUBS:NYS)

Technology:Software-Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$171.87 (USD) 13/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$156.80 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 8.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $156.80 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (HUBS:NYS USD)

Price 171.87
Range 167.72 – 180.00
52 week 102.65 – 172.00
Open 179.25
Vol / Avg. 1.55M/694912
Mkt cap 6.81B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.66
Shares 39.61M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

HubSpot Inc. is a provider of cloud-based marketing and sales software solutions to mid-market businesses that are delivered through its centralized platform, which allows businesses to create personalized interactions with customers through emails and social media alerts. Its solutions include social media, search engine optimization, blogging, website content management, marketing automation, and data analytics capabilities. The company derives revenue from subscription fees to its solutions that are typically sold on an annual basis. A majority of the firm’s revenue is generated in the Americas, but it also has a presence in the Europe and Asia-Pacific regions.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for HUBS:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $25.95 (USD) for HUBS:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

HUBS:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $25.95 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 13.64 $28.75 $23.64
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $24.05 $28.25
Tax Rate -0.03 $27.12 $24.81
Cash Flow 116,244,714 $24.71 $27.20
Capital Expenditures -14,812,600 $25.83 $26.08
Long Term Debt 1,011,000 $25.95 $25.95

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $29.09 (USD) for HUBS:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $79.71 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Aspen Technology (AZPN:NAS), CDK Global (CDK:NAS), LogMeIn (LOGM:NAS), National Instruments (NATI:NAS) and Nuance Communications (NUAN:NAS).

Company HUBS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.66) (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.48 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.73 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.45) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$21.50 (USD) 0.0
$39.48 (USD) 0.0
$18.02 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
HUBS:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AZPN:NAS CDK:NAS LOGM:NAS NATI:NAS NUAN:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 27.49 0.00 16.87 0.00 38.12 0.00
27.12 PB Ratio 3.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.73 2.64
12.68 PS Ratio 3.16 0.00 2.90 0.00 4.34 2.25
91.73 PCF Ratio 15.23 0.00 13.84 0.00 21.46 10.40
0.00 EV to EBITDA 27.26 0.00 12.04 0.00 21.87 47.87

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $120.65 (USD) for HUBS:NYS

Company HUBS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.66) (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.48 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.73 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.45) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$92.33 (USD) 0
$106.40 (USD) 0
$163.21 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 15.82
PS Ratio 8.52
PCF Ratio 94.56
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  HUBS:NYS for the last 4 years was  15.93

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  HUBS:NYS and generated a book value of  $6.22 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $99.18 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for HUBS:NYS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for HUBS:NYS for 2019 of $156.80 (USD).

HUBS:NYS HubSpot

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 0 3.8000 Outperform 2019-2-12

Current Price: 171.87 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 1.07 1.56
# EPS Analysts 5 4
Mean Revenue 633.60 776.50
# Revenue Analysts 5 4
Mean Target Price 156.80
Mean Cash Flow 2.06 2.73
Mean EBITDA 69.00 96.90
Mean Net Income 52.10 73.20
Mean Debt Outstanding -319.70 -398.80
Mean Tax Rate 10.00
Mean Growth Rate 50.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 46.40 57.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Workday (WDAY:NAS) and O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY:NAS) Are Fully Valued

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Fully Valued Stocks on NASDAQ

Today we are looking at companies that are considered fully valued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In this table we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on NASDAQ

Today’s data is for companies listed on the NASDAQ.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
WDAY Workday Inc 2020 189.520000 159.4286 USD 7
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive Inc 2019 378.490000 367.4000 USD 5
XLNX Xilinx Inc 2020 118.200000 103.3333 USD 3
CTAS Cintas Corp 2020 200.590000 187.5000 USD 2
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp 2019 84.720000 71.0000 USD 2
DXCM DexCom Inc 2019 152.730000 143.3333 USD 3
IEP Icahn Enterprises LP 2019 69.600000 53.0000 USD 1
UBNT Ubiquiti Networks Inc 2019 129.360000 103.0000 USD 1
OKTA Okta Inc 2020 84.620000 73.0000 USD 4
MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc 2019 225.410000 205.0000 USD 1
CACC Credit Acceptance Corp 2019 434.710000 386.0000 USD 2
FIVE Five Below Inc 2020 131.630000 118.3333 USD 3
TECH Bio-Techne Corp 2019 186.650000 175.0000 USD 1
TTD The Trade Desk Inc 2019 152.980000 130.6000 USD 5
COUP Coupa Software Inc 2020 95.960000 82.2500 USD 4
WIX Wix.com Ltd 2019 116.130000 99.3333 USD 3
MDB MongoDB Inc 2020 100.260000 88.7500 USD 4
VSAT Viasat Inc 2020 73.000000 45.0000 USD 1
TREE LendingTree Inc 2019 304.750000 267.0000 USD 5
BLKB Blackbaud Inc 2019 77.800000 65.0000 USD 1
APPN Appian Corp 2019 37.380000 27.0000 USD 1
MANT Mantech International Corp 2019 57.400000 48.0000 USD 1
POWI Power Integrations Inc 2019 70.130000 60.0000 USD 1
TCMD Tactile Systems Technology Inc 2019 70.620000 55.0000 USD 1
ATNI ATN International Inc 2019 73.550000 45.0000 USD 1

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

WDAY:NAS Workday

http://www.workday.com
Workday has 10200 employees and is headquartered in United States.
Workday Inc is a SaaS provider offering enterprise resource planning, or ERP, software for medium and large enterprises. The company’s product portfolio is built around human capital and financial management software.

ORLY:NAS O’Reilly Automotive

http://www.oreillyauto.com
O’Reilly Automotive has 75289 employees and is headquartered in United States.
O’Reilly Automotive Inc acts as a seller of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, serving professional and DIY (do-it-yourself) customers in the US.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.stockcalc.com/valureport.aspx or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Reports.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Arthur J. Gallagher(AJG:NYS)

Financial Services:Insurance Brokers

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$79.89 (USD) 11/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$72.90 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 8.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $79.50 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $63.68 (USD)
Multiples: $71.55 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AJG:NYS USD)

Price 79.89
Range 78.58 – 79.98
52 week 64.77 – 79.89
Open 78.96
Vol / Avg. 823690/1.22M
Mkt cap 14.7B
P/E 23.50
Div/yield 1.64/0.02
EPS 3.40
Shares 184.06M
Beta 0.87

Company Description

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co provides insurance brokerage and consulting services to middle-market entities around the world. The majority of the company’s revenue comes from its brokerage segment, where it negotiates and places its customers with insurance companies that provide, among other types, property/casualty and health insurance. The company’s primary source of revenue in the brokerage segment is commissions from the insurance companies. The company also generates significant revenue in its corporate segment, which includes clean energy investment and other investment income. The company generates most of its revenue in the United States, with the remaining revenue coming primarily from Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AJG:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $51.45 (USD) for AJG:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AJG:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $51.45 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.95 $68.14 $40.29
Terminal Growth Rate 2.90 $41.23 $66.72
Tax Rate 0.27 $56.83 $46.06
Cash Flow 1,167,141,797 $47.26 $55.63
Capital Expenditures -98,380,000 $51.11 $51.79
Long Term Debt 2,785,700,000 $52.20 $50.69

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $109.28 (USD) for AJG:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $111.59 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Brown & Brown (BRO:NYS), Erie Indemnity (ERIE:NAS) and Marsh & McLennan (MMC:NYS).

Company AJG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.40 (USD)
Book Value/Share $24.44 (USD)
Sales/Share $37.25 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.11 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.57 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$96.51 (USD) -27.9
$173.64 (USD) -10.8
$126.89 (USD) -6.7
$88.27 (USD) 5.5
$90.44 (USD) 26.6
AJG:NYS Ratios Used Average Values BRO:NYS ERIE:NAS MMC:NYS
21.97 PE Ratio 28.38 0.00 29.47 27.30
3.06 PB Ratio 7.10 0.00 8.25 5.96
2.01 PS Ratio 3.41 0.00 3.80 3.01
18.17 PCF Ratio 26.18 0.00 33.80 18.56
16.16 EV to EBITDA 16.24 0.00 0.00 16.24

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $71.55 (USD) for AJG:NYS

Company AJG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.40 (USD)
Book Value/Share $24.44 (USD)
Sales/Share $37.25 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.11 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.57 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$80.82 (USD) 0
$63.07 (USD) 0
$62.95 (USD) 0
$64.45 (USD) 0
$86.47 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.77
PB Ratio 2.58
PS Ratio 1.69
PCF Ratio 15.67
EV to EBITDA 15.53

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AJG:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.60

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AJG:NYS and generated a book value of  $24.45 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $63.68 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for AJG:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for AJG:NYS for 2019 of $79.50 (USD).

AJG:NYS Arthur J. Gallagher

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 2 0 3.6667 Outperform 2019-2-8

Current Price: 79.89 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.31 3.86 4.32
# EPS Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Revenue 6,821.30 7,339.90 7,867.70
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 79.50
Mean Cash Flow 4.97 6.01 6.70
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 639.40 730.60 840.30
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Credit Acceptance (CACC:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Credit Acceptance(CACC:NAS)

Financial Services:Credit Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$435.99 (USD) 11/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$409.23 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 6.1%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $390.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $433.45 (USD)
Multiples: $416.45 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (CACC:NAS USD)

Price 435.99
Range 427.03 – 437.44
52 week 314.11 – 464.91
Open 429.65
Vol / Avg. 83438/110641
Mkt cap 8.19B
P/E 14.83
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 29.39
Shares 18.78M
Beta 0.62

Company Description

Credit Acceptance Corp is a consumer finance company that specializes in automobile loans. These loans are offered through a U.S. nationwide network of automobile dealers that benefit from sales of vehicles to consumers who could otherwise not obtain financing. The company also benefits from repeat and referral sales, and from sales to customers responding to advertisements for financing, but qualify for traditional financing. The company derives its revenue from finance charges, premiums earned on the reinsurance of vehicle service contracts, and other fees. Of these, financing charges, including servicing fees, are by far the largest source of revenue.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CACC:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $820.47 (USD) for CACC:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CACC:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $820.47 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.85 $1,064.06 $658.73
Terminal Growth Rate 0.90 $673.46 $1,041.83
Tax Rate 0.24 $882.95 $757.98
Cash Flow 1,213,524,006 $772.69 $868.25
Capital Expenditures -9,460,000 $820.12 $820.82
Long Term Debt 2,510,400,000 $827.15 $813.78

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $222.44 (USD) for CACC:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $285.35 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Alliance Data Systems (ADS:NYS), Discover Financial (DFS:NYS), FirstCash (FCFS:NAS), Green Dot (GDOT:NYS) and Navient (NAVI:NAS).

Company CACC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $29.39 (USD)
Book Value/Share $104.94 (USD)
Sales/Share $65.83 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $33.40 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $47.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$507.66 (USD) -46.7
$364.47 (USD) -5.9
$109.71 (USD) 24.2
$113.01 (USD) -31.3
$556.16 (USD) -58.3
CACC:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ADS:NYS DFS:NYS FCFS:NAS GDOT:NYS NAVI:NAS
13.54 PE Ratio 17.27 10.37 0.00 24.17 0.00 0.00
3.79 PB Ratio 3.47 4.22 0.00 2.72 0.00 0.00
6.05 PS Ratio 1.67 1.26 0.00 2.08 0.00 0.00
11.92 PCF Ratio 9.24 3.42 0.00 15.06 0.00 0.00
12.38 EV to EBITDA 11.67 8.52 0.00 14.81 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $416.45 (USD) for CACC:NAS

Company CACC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $29.39 (USD)
Book Value/Share $104.94 (USD)
Sales/Share $65.83 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $33.40 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $47.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$407.52 (USD) 0
$435.41 (USD) 0
$349.07 (USD) 0
$349.70 (USD) 0
$540.55 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 13.87
PB Ratio 4.15
PS Ratio 5.30
PCF Ratio 10.47
EV to EBITDA 11.34

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CACC:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.13

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CACC:NAS and generated a book value of  $104.94 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $433.45 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for CACC:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for CACC:NAS for 2019 of $390.67 (USD).

CACC:NAS Credit Acceptance

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 1 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-8

Current Price: 435.99 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 32.28 33.87
# EPS Analysts 3 3
Mean Revenue 1,406.40 1,528.80
# Revenue Analysts 3 3
Mean Target Price 390.67
Mean Cash Flow 41.45 42.77
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 625.40 658.50
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 24.00 24.00
Mean Growth Rate 16.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.


Pine Cliff Energy (PNE.R:TSX) Is Fully Valued

Stockcalc – Free Trial

Have a free look inside the StockCalc website at www.stockcalc.com



I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Fully Valued Stocks on TSX

Today we are looking at companies that are considered fully valued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In this table we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on TSX

Today’s data is for companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
PNE.R Pine Cliff Energy Ltd 2019 0.920000 0.3682 CAD 11

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

PNE.R:TSX Pine Cliff Energy

http://www.pinecliffenergy.com
Pine Cliff Energy has 91 employees and is headquartered in Canada.
Pine Cliff Energy Ltd is a natural gas-focused, exploration and production company. It is mainly engaged in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids.

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The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.