Netflix (NFLX:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Netflix $227.58 (USD) Close Price as of 22/01/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Netflix, (NFLX:NAS) is found to be  Overvalued.

Company Netflix
Symbol:Exchange NFLX:NAS
Industry Consumer Cyclical:Media-Diversified
Close Price/Date $227.58 (USD) 22/01/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $181.23 (USD)
Summary NFLX:NAS is found to be  Overvalued by 20.4% using the 2 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $216.54 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $128.26 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Netflix Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for NFLX:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $40.66 (USD) for NFLX:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

NFLX:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $40.66 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 12.21 $46.72 $35.79
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $36.54 $45.78
Tax Rate 0.28 $43.71 $37.60
Cash Flow 2,942,916,000 $38.43 $42.88
Capital Expenditures -72,845,400 $40.60 $40.71
Long Term Debt 2,373,966,000 $40.93 $40.38

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $50.18 (USD) for NFLX:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $132.61 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Walt Disney (DIS:NYS), Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA:NAS) and Time Warner (TWX:NYS)

Company NFLX:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.00 (USD)
Book Value/Share $7.69 (USD)
Sales/Share $24.47 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($4.17) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$20.11 (USD) 0.0
$28.13 (USD) 0.0
$65.19 (USD) 56.9
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
NFLX:NAS Ratios Used Average Values DIS:NYS FOXA:NAS TWX:NYS
227.58 PE Ratio 20.11 19.53 23.03 17.77
29.60 PB Ratio 3.66 4.05 4.24 2.68
9.30 PS Ratio 2.66 3.18 2.39 2.43
0.00 PCF Ratio 16.09 14.20 19.52 14.55
127.95 EV to EBITDA 11.54 11.05 11.38 12.20

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $174.33 (USD) for NFLX:NAS

Company NFLX:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.00 (USD)
Book Value/Share $7.69 (USD)
Sales/Share $24.47 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($4.17) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.05 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$258.54 (USD) 0
$156.87 (USD) 0
$162.46 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$119.46 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 258.54
PB Ratio 20.40
PS Ratio 6.64
PCF Ratio 249.79
EV to EBITDA 113.50

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  NFLX:NAS for the last 10 years was  20.58

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  NFLX:NAS and generated a book value of  $6.23 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $128.26 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 13 analysts that provide a valuation for NFLX:NAS. The 13 analysts have a concensus valuation for NFLX:NAS for 2018 of $216.54 (USD).

NFLX:NAS Netflix

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
8 4 3 3.6667 Outperform 2018-1-19

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2017 2018 2019
Mean EPS 1.35 2.35 4.26
# EPS Analysts 13 13 8
Mean Revenue 11,679.40 14,975.30 18,172.90
# Revenue Analysts 10 10 8
Mean Target Price 216.54
Mean Cash Flow -2.93 -2.73 -0.94
Mean EBITDA 949.40 1,747.30 2,857.20
Mean Net Income 610.20 1,040.50 1,798.10
Mean Debt Outstanding -298.70 -647.40 -632.10
Mean Tax Rate 8.90 22.14 23.00
Mean Growth Rate 58.86
Mean Capital Expenditure 195.70 194.10 203.40

Company Overview (NFLX:NAS USD)

Price 149.41
Range 148.42 – 150.71
52 week 138.96 – 227.58
Open 149.76
Vol / Avg. 5.21M/18.36M
Mkt cap 64.51B
P/E 194.04
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.15
Shares 431.75M
Beta 0.80
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Netflix Inc provides multimedia content through the internet. It provides a subscription based platform for television shows, movies and original series.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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