Thor Industries (THO:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Thor Industries(THO:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Recreational Vehicles

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$67.55 (USD) 30/10/2018

Weighted Valuation
$114.88 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 70.1%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $125.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $99.69 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $114.92 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (THO:NYS USD)

Price 67.55
Range 63.99 – 68.17
52 week 64.38 – 157.02
Open 64.38
Vol / Avg. 1.31M/988501
Mkt cap 3.56B
P/E 8.30
Div/yield 1.48/0.02
EPS 8.14
Shares 52.7M
Beta 1.26

Company Description

Thor Industries Inc is an American manufacturer of recreational vehicles through its subsidiaries. The company mainly sells vehicles in the United States and Canada. The company has two reporting segments: towable recreational vehicles and motorized recreational vehicles. The towable recreational vehicle reportable segment consists of the following operating segments: Airstream (towable), Bison, Heartland, CrossRoads, KZ, Keystone, and Livin’ Lite. The motorized recreational vehicle reportable segment consists of the following operating segments: Airstream (motorized) and Thor Motor Coach. The marketing and distribution is done through independent dealers that are generally not financed by the company.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for THO:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $99.69 (USD) for THO:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

THO:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $99.69 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.59 $116.07 $87.14
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $88.75 $113.95
Tax Rate 0.32 $108.35 $91.03
Cash Flow 806,397,999 $93.43 $105.95
Capital Expenditures -71,989,000 $99.17 $100.22
Long Term Debt 360,000,000 $100.03 $99.35

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $157.73 (USD) for THO:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $119.28 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Camping World Holdings (CWH:NYS), Fox Factory Holding (FOXF:NAS), Harley-Davidson (HOG:NYS), LCI Industries (LCII:NYS) and Polaris Industries (PII:NYS).

Company THO:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $8.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $36.77 (USD)
Sales/Share $157.59 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.83 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $13.84 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$219.53 (USD) -21.7
$214.20 (USD) -79.2
$271.42 (USD) -37.2
$292.86 (USD) -16.3
$196.95 (USD) -20.5
THO:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CWH:NYS FOXF:NAS HOG:NYS LCII:NYS PII:NYS
10.28 PE Ratio 26.97 33.31 46.70 15.25 14.65 24.93
2.28 PB Ratio 9.93 26.37 9.72 3.49 2.93 7.16
0.53 PS Ratio 1.72 0.16 5.08 1.36 0.87 1.14
9.48 PCF Ratio 33.18 84.77 45.33 6.87 15.37 13.55
5.65 EV to EBITDA 14.23 8.03 30.16 13.57 8.23 11.17

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $125.52 (USD) for THO:NYS

Company THO:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $8.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $36.77 (USD)
Sales/Share $157.59 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.83 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $13.84 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$129.34 (USD) 0
$117.57 (USD) 0
$129.26 (USD) 0
$125.11 (USD) 0
$126.30 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 15.89
PB Ratio 3.20
PS Ratio 0.82
PCF Ratio 14.17
EV to EBITDA 9.13

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  THO:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.13

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  THO:NYS and generated a book value of  $36.77 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $114.92 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for THO:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for THO:NYS for 2019 of $125.00 (USD).

THO:NYS Thor Industries

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 2 0 4.2000 Outperform 2018-10-29

Current Price: 67.55 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 8.92 10.09
# EPS Analysts 4 2
Mean Revenue 7,823.80 8,305.30
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 125.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 300.00
Mean Net Income 423.60 507.50
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 24.00 24.00
Mean Growth Rate 10.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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