Vail Resorts (MTN:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Vail Resorts(MTN:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Resorts & Casinos

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Close Price/Date
$242.11 (USD) 30/10/2018

Weighted Valuation
$261.85 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 8.2%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $297.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $236.82 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $206.46 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (MTN:NYS USD)

Price 242.11
Range 234.42 – 242.63
52 week 205.66 – 301.42
Open 235.64
Vol / Avg. 290429/464383
Mkt cap 9.81B
P/E 26.52
Div/yield 5.05/0.02
EPS 9.13
Shares 40.51M
Beta 0.39

Company Description

Vail Resorts Inc Bhd is a resorts and casinos company that operates mountain resorts and ski areas. The company has three business segments that include Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates numerous ski resort properties that offer a variety of winter and summer activities, such as skiing, snowboarding, snowshoeing, hiking, and mountain biking. The Lodging segment owns and operates hotels and condominiums. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and leases real estate, typically near its other properties. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue within the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MTN:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $340.07 (USD) for MTN:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MTN:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $340.07 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.44 $429.81 $280.09
Terminal Growth Rate 0.40 $285.68 $421.42
Tax Rate 0.18 $361.53 $318.61
Cash Flow 894,195,630 $322.53 $357.61
Capital Expenditures 3,583,800 $340.14 $340.01
Long Term Debt 727,585,000 $340.97 $339.17

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $236.82 (USD) for MTN:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $142.47 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Eldorado Resorts (ERI:NAS), Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV:NYS), MGM Resorts Intl (MGM:NYS), Red Rock Resorts (RRR:NAS) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN:NAS).

Company MTN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $9.13 (USD)
Book Value/Share $39.27 (USD)
Sales/Share $48.33 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $13.25 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $14.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$136.40 (USD) 67.4
$206.97 (USD) -12.7
$93.58 (USD) 32.6
$275.53 (USD) 43.9
$188.27 (USD) 33.5
30.06 PE Ratio 14.94 18.55 9.07 8.64 13.53 24.91
6.99 PB Ratio 5.27 3.77 6.20 2.19 6.13 8.06
5.68 PS Ratio 1.94 2.13 1.83 1.43 2.33 1.96
20.70 PCF Ratio 23.10 13.84 73.19 6.74 9.98 11.74
19.79 EV to EBITDA 12.69 15.90 10.90 11.29 8.08 17.29


Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $235.02 (USD) for MTN:NYS

Company MTN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $9.13 (USD)
Book Value/Share $39.27 (USD)
Sales/Share $48.33 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $13.25 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $14.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$349.14 (USD) 0
$214.44 (USD) 0
$179.78 (USD) 0
$200.44 (USD) 0
$231.31 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 38.24
PB Ratio 5.46
PS Ratio 3.72
PCF Ratio 15.12
EV to EBITDA 15.59

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MTN:NYS for the last 10 years was  5.26

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MTN:NYS and generated a book value of  $39.22 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $206.46 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for MTN:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for MTN:NYS for 2019 of $297.00 (USD).

MTN:NYS Vail Resorts

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2018-10-29

Current Price: 242.11 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 7.55 8.68
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 2,326.60 2,486.50
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 297.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 736.30 800.50
Mean Net Income 320.00 361.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 946.60 612.50
Mean Tax Rate 21.90 22.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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