Moog (MOG.B:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Moog(MOG.B:NYS)

Industrials:Aerospace & Defense

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$81.91 (USD) 14/11/2018

Weighted Valuation
$80.50 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $86.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $79.53 (USD)
Multiples: $65.92 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (MOG.B:NYS USD)

Price 0.00
Range 0.00 – 0.00
52 week 0.00 – 0.00
Open 0.00
Vol / Avg. 0/0
Mkt cap 0
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.00
Shares 0
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Moog Inc is a worldwide manufacturer of precision motion and fluid controls systems for the aerospace and defense markets. It has a diversified product range and operates in five segments: Aircraft Controls, Space and Defense Controls, Industrial Systems, and Components. The company has a wide sales and marketing reach with sales staff being the main contact with customers. Additionally, it will use manufacturers’ representatives and distributors to market in certain segments. Sales under United States government contracts represent approximately one third of total revenue. Although over half of total sales originate in the United States, the company serves many European and Asian nations.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MOG.B:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $51.82 (USD) for MOG.B:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MOG.B:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $51.82 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.78 $64.07 $42.36
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $43.52 $62.56
Tax Rate 0.27 $58.77 $44.86
Cash Flow 465,663,000 $46.10 $57.54
Capital Expenditures -79,397,400 $50.93 $52.71
Long Term Debt 1,011,850,000 $53.27 $50.36

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $57.73 (USD) for MOG.B:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $91.43 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Aerojet Rocketdyne Hldgs (AJRD:NYS), Astronics (ATRO:NAS), Esterline Technologies (ESL:NYS), Kaman (KAMN:NYS) and Woodward (WWD:NAS).

Company MOG.B:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.68 (USD)
Book Value/Share $36.27 (USD)
Sales/Share $73.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.62 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.56 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$118.26 (USD) -32.6
$129.68 (USD) -64.9
$110.35 (USD) -27.6
$17.73 (USD) -86.5
$120.06 (USD) -19.0
MOG.B:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AJRD:NYS ATRO:NAS ESL:NYS KAMN:NYS WWD:NAS
28.78 PE Ratio 44.13 45.87 53.23 63.10 30.54 27.89
2.08 PB Ratio 3.58 6.98 3.08 1.96 2.76 3.09
1.03 PS Ratio 1.50 1.34 1.35 1.73 0.97 2.12
28.77 PCF Ratio 15.90 9.35 23.21 20.15 10.37 16.41
10.53 EV to EBITDA 14.02 9.87 17.28 13.83 12.59 16.56

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $65.92 (USD) for MOG.B:NYS

Company MOG.B:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.68 (USD)
Book Value/Share $36.27 (USD)
Sales/Share $73.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.62 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.56 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$52.06 (USD) 0
$83.24 (USD) 0
$78.35 (USD) 0
$26.51 (USD) 0
$89.46 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.42
PB Ratio 2.29
PS Ratio 1.07
PCF Ratio 10.12
EV to EBITDA 10.45

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MOG.B:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.26

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MOG.B:NYS and generated a book value of  $35.20 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $79.53 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for MOG.B:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for MOG.B:NYS for 2019 of $86.00 (USD).

MOG.B:NYS Moog

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2018-11-13

Current Price: 81.91 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 5.28 5.69 5.95
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 2,879.80 3,048.50 3,200.30
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 86.00
Mean Cash Flow 7.81 8.32 9.54
Mean EBITDA 405.80 427.30 452.10
Mean Net Income 185.50 198.40 210.90
Mean Debt Outstanding 571.70 329.50 37.20
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 95.00 97.60 96.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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