GMS (GMS:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

GMS(GMS:NYS)

Basic Materials:Building Materials

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$17.65 (USD) 08/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$27.67 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 56.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $27.67 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (GMS:NYS USD)

Price 17.65
Range 17.23 – 17.75
52 week 13.95 – 38.40
Open 17.69
Vol / Avg. 500638/887042
Mkt cap 726.86M
P/E 15.43
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.49
Shares 41.18M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

GMS Inc is a North American-based supplier of building materials. The company principally operates through three main product lines, which are Wallboards, Ceilings, and Steel Framings. In addition, it also supplies a comprehensive inventory of other building materials, including FRP boards, metal framing, insulation, and various other related interior construction products; however, the majority of the company’s revenue is generated by the Wallboard segment. The company’s main customers include contractors as well as home builders.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for GMS:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $83.18 (USD) for GMS:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

GMS:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $83.18 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.44 $105.19 $68.01
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $69.37 $103.21
Tax Rate 0.25 $90.72 $75.63
Cash Flow 382,696,565 $77.35 $89.01
Capital Expenditures -14,675,800 $82.96 $83.39
Long Term Debt 546,734,000 $83.84 $82.51

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $31.70 (USD) for GMS:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $20.90 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were TopBuild (BLD:NYS), Continental Building (CBPX:NYS), Installed Building Prods (IBP:NYS), JELD-WEN Holding (JELD:NYS) and Summit Materials (SUM:NYS).

Company GMS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.48 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.57 (USD)
Sales/Share $67.31 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.43 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.29 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$20.87 (USD) 0.0
$37.21 (USD) 0.0
$59.30 (USD) 0.0
$8.31 (USD) 0.0
$32.79 (USD) 0.0
GMS:NYS Ratios Used Average Values BLD:NYS CBPX:NYS IBP:NYS JELD:NYS SUM:NYS
10.04 PE Ratio 853.11 8.08 12.18 21.74 4209.12 14.42
0.95 PB Ratio 2.39 1.43 2.69 4.91 1.88 1.03
0.22 PS Ratio 0.88 0.72 1.83 0.83 0.36 0.66
6.12 PCF Ratio 9.25 10.42 8.59 12.63 8.55 6.04
8.36 EV to EBITDA 7.64 9.76 7.42 9.68 6.47 4.85

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $40.65 (USD) for GMS:NYS

Company GMS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.48 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.57 (USD)
Sales/Share $67.31 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.43 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.29 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$38.51 (USD) 0
$37.37 (USD) 0
$35.47 (USD) 0
$43.58 (USD) 0
$48.34 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 26.02
PB Ratio 2.40
PS Ratio 0.53
PCF Ratio 17.94
EV to EBITDA 11.26

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  GMS:NYS for the last 2 years was  2.39

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  GMS:NYS and generated a book value of  $15.61 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $37.31 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for GMS:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for GMS:NYS for 2020 of $27.67 (USD).

GMS:NYS GMS

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-1-7

Current Price: 17.65 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.29 3.55
# EPS Analysts 3 1
Mean Revenue 3,211.70 3,375.40
# Revenue Analysts 2 1
Mean Target Price 27.67
Mean Cash Flow 2.28 4.43
Mean EBITDA 310.50 345.70
Mean Net Income 131.50 152.90
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 22.50 22.50
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 14.50 17.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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