Oracle (ORCL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Oracle(ORCL:NYS)

Technology:Software-Infrastructure

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$47.88 (USD) 08/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$47.05 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $52.63 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $38.68 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ORCL:NYS USD)

Price 47.88
Range 47.20 – 48.36
52 week 42.69 – 52.97
Open 47.93
Vol / Avg. 16.23M/25.86M
Mkt cap 171.84B
P/E 48.87
Div/yield 0.76/0.02
EPS 0.90
Shares 3.59B
Beta 1.05

Company Description

Oracle sells a wide range of enterprise IT solutions, including databases, middleware, applications, and hardware. While software licenses, support, and maintenance continue to represent roughly 70% of revenue, the firm is undergoing a mix shift toward cloud-based subscriptions that should necessitate continued heavy investment in the business model transition. Oracle offers software-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and infrastructure-as-a-service offerings. Legacy offerings include Oracle Database software and Oracle Fusion Middleware.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ORCL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $73.79 (USD) for ORCL:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ORCL:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $73.79 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.85 $96.11 $58.97
Terminal Growth Rate 2.90 $60.38 $93.99
Tax Rate 0.19 $78.62 $68.96
Cash Flow 18,572,215,200 $69.87 $77.71
Capital Expenditures 0 $73.79 $73.79
Long Term Debt 54,056,000,000 $74.54 $73.04

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $35.14 (USD) for ORCL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $41.45 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and VMware (VMW:NYS).

Company ORCL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.06 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.52 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.76 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$40.60 (USD) -67.9
$43.88 (USD) -31.1
$64.15 (USD) 16.3
$45.93 (USD) -35.5
$56.19 (USD) -55.1
ORCL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values VMW:NYS
42.59 PE Ratio 38.30 38.30
5.30 PB Ratio 5.15 5.15
4.58 PS Ratio 6.51 6.51
12.00 PCF Ratio 16.19 16.19
9.57 EV to EBITDA 12.86 12.86

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $38.68 (USD) for ORCL:NYS

Company ORCL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.06 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.52 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.76 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$20.49 (USD) 0
$31.60 (USD) 0
$48.28 (USD) 0
$48.86 (USD) 0
$44.16 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.33
PB Ratio 3.71
PS Ratio 4.90
PCF Ratio 12.99
EV to EBITDA 10.11

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ORCL:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.71

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ORCL:NYS and generated a book value of  $7.65 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $28.39 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 8 analysts that provide a valuation for ORCL:NYS. The 8 analysts have a concensus valuation for ORCL:NYS for 2019 of $52.63 (USD).

ORCL:NYS Oracle

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 7 0 3.7273 Outperform 2019-1-7

Current Price: 47.88 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 3.42 3.65 3.67
# EPS Analysts 10 9 5
Mean Revenue 39,793.30 40,582.30 41,389.70
# Revenue Analysts 7 7 5
Mean Target Price 52.63
Mean Cash Flow 4.07 4.46 4.76
Mean EBITDA 18,403.60 19,100.10 18,048.80
Mean Net Income 12,773.00 13,258.90 13,585.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 1,329.80 -882.90 -14,078.50
Mean Tax Rate 16.70 20.00 20.00
Mean Growth Rate 8.06
Mean Capital Expenditure 1,775.00 1,771.00 1,793.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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