Carnival (CCL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report


Consumer Cyclical:Leisure

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$56.26 (USD) 29/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$63.39 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 12.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $73.23 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $50.37 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $59.92 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (CCL:NYS USD)

Price 56.26
Range 55.95 – 56.52
52 week 46.21 – 71.61
Open 56.49
Vol / Avg. 3.14M/4.36M
Mkt cap 40.43B
P/E 12.54
Div/yield 1.95/0.03
EPS 4.44
Shares 718.6M
Beta 1.15

Company Description

Carnival is the largest global cruise company, with more than 100 ships on the seas. Its portfolio of brands includes Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; P&O Cruises and Cunard Line in the United Kingdom; Aida in Germany; Costa Cruises in Southern Europe; P&O Cruises in Australia; and Fathom, supporting impact travel. Carnival also owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon. Carnival’s brands attract more than 12.4 million guests annually.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CCL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $85.06 (USD) for CCL:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CCL:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $85.06 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.47 $103.52 $71.56
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $72.76 $101.87
Tax Rate 0.02 $91.03 $79.54
Cash Flow 7,680,813,000 $77.75 $92.37
Capital Expenditures -2,830,000,000 $82.77 $87.36
Long Term Debt 9,393,000,000 $85.72 $84.41

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $50.37 (USD) for CCL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $48.00 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Expedia Group (EXPE:NAS), Hasbro (HAS:NAS), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH:NYS) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL:NYS).

Company CCL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.44 (USD)
Book Value/Share $35.12 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.59 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.82 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.63 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$123.21 (USD) -41.8
$110.45 (USD) -78.8
$50.78 (USD) -2.1
$54.18 (USD) -37.8
$81.37 (USD) -3.8
11.10 PE Ratio 27.75 38.84 49.85 10.65 11.66
1.40 PB Ratio 3.14 3.83 5.45 1.50 1.80
1.85 PS Ratio 1.91 1.58 2.17 1.62 2.27
6.31 PCF Ratio 8.79 8.79 14.87 4.94 6.57
8.32 EV to EBITDA 10.66 10.29 13.63 8.89 9.85


Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $72.86 (USD) for CCL:NYS

Company CCL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.44 (USD)
Book Value/Share $35.12 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.59 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.82 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.63 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$80.40 (USD) 0
$60.82 (USD) 0
$64.84 (USD) 0
$68.67 (USD) 0
$89.56 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.11
PB Ratio 1.73
PS Ratio 2.44
PCF Ratio 8.79
EV to EBITDA 11.74

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CCL:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.71

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CCL:NYS and generated a book value of  $35.12 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $59.92 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for CCL:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for CCL:NYS for 2019 of $73.23 (USD).

CCL:NYS Carnival

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 1 0 4.4000 Outperform 2019-1-28

Current Price: 56.26 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 4.83 5.44 6.72
# EPS Analysts 5 4 1
Mean Revenue 19,713.80 21,468.10 23,522.20
# Revenue Analysts 3 2 1
Mean Target Price 73.23
Mean Cash Flow 8.19 9.33 10.58
Mean EBITDA 5,803.00 6,461.10 7,457.10
Mean Net Income 3,322.40 3,799.60 4,517.80
Mean Debt Outstanding 11,870.80 12,352.80 13,056.30
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 12.11
Mean Capital Expenditure 6,213.40 5,154.40 4,495.60

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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