Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Aspen Insurance Holdings(AHL:NYS)

Financial Services:Insurance-Reinsurance

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$42.74 (USD) 14/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$40.28 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 5.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $42.75 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $36.65 (USD)
Multiples: $40.13 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AHL:NYS USD)

Price 42.74
Range 42.73 – 42.75
52 week 35.05 – 45.35
Open 42.74
Vol / Avg. 20.69M/2M
Mkt cap 2.56B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.72/0.02
EPS -2.97
Shares 59.86M
Beta 0.16

Company Description

Aspen Insurance Holdings is a Bermudian insurance and reinsurance company. The company operates through subsidiaries that include Aspen Insurance UK, Aspen Underwriting, Aspen Bermuda, Aspen Specialty Insurance, and Aspen American Insurance Corporation. Aspen UK also has branches in Europe, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Australia, and Canada. The company’s business is divided into two segments: Aspen Insurance and Aspen Reinsurance. Aspen Insurance consists of property and casualty insurance, marine, aviation and energy insurance, and financial and professional lines insurance. Aspen Reinsurance comprises property reinsurance, casualty reinsurance, and specialty reinsurance.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AHL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($11.95) (USD) for AHL:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $32.99 (USD) for AHL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $58.66 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Everest Re Group (RE:NYS), RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR:NYS) and Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE:NYS).

Company AHL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.97) (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.41 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($6.41) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.18) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -36.0
$47.20 (USD) -22.1
$55.96 (USD) -47.8
($7.12) (USD) -75.8
$0.00 (USD) 70.9
AHL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values RE:NYS RNR:NYS TPRE:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 28.14 8.52 28.11 47.77
0.90 PB Ratio 1.02 1.07 1.33 0.66
1.07 PS Ratio 6.50 1.20 16.64 1.66
0.00 PCF Ratio 8.79 13.46 4.12 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $40.13 (USD) for AHL:NYS

Company AHL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.97) (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.41 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($6.41) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.18) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$38.47 (USD) 0
$41.79 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 9.90
PB Ratio 0.83
PS Ratio 1.07
PCF Ratio 6.01
EV to EBITDA 4.36

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AHL:NYS for the last 10 years was  0.83

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AHL:NYS and generated a book value of  $44.40 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $36.65 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AHL:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AHL:NYS for 2019 of $42.75 (USD).

AHL:NYS Aspen Insurance Holdings

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-13

Current Price: 42.74 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.47 3.87
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 2,333.50 2,431.20
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 42.75
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 177.80 227.70
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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