Career Education (CECO:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Career Education(CECO:NAS)

Consumer Defensive:Education & Training Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$16.37 (USD) 21/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$18.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 10.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $18.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (CECO:NAS USD)

Price 16.37
Range 15.05 – 17.72
52 week 11.20 – 18.78
Open 15.20
Vol / Avg. 1.58M/317108
Mkt cap 1.14B
P/E 20.99
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.77
Shares 69.77M
Beta 1.75

Company Description

Career Education Corp is an American for-profit education company that focuses on campus and online post-secondary programs. The company’s important segment is its online universities, which includes the American InterContinental University, the Colorado Technical University, and All Other Campuses. These online universities provide undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral degree programs focusing on business, technology, management, and social services. Career Education Corporation is focusing on its online universities as it continues to reduce its on-campus program offerings. The majority of the company’s revenue comes from Colorado Technical University segment.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CECO:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $6.29 (USD) for CECO:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CECO:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $6.29 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.55 $7.30 $5.52
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $5.54 $7.27
Tax Rate 0.25 $7.41 $5.17
Cash Flow 136,146,660 $5.41 $7.17
Capital Expenditures -8,408,800 $6.24 $6.34
Long Term Debt 0 $6.29 $6.29

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $22.15 (USD) for CECO:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $33.86 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Chegg (CHGG:NYS), Graham Holdings (GHC:NYS), Laureate Education (LAUR:NAS), K12 (LRN:NYS) and Strategic Education (STRA:NAS).

Company CECO:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.77 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.87 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.33 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.37 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.18 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -74.5
$50.96 (USD) -65.7
$0.00 (USD) -71.6
$21.96 (USD) -18.7
$0.00 (USD) -75.6
CECO:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CHGG:NYS GHC:NYS LAUR:NAS LRN:NYS STRA:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.65 PB Ratio 10.47 10.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.55 PS Ratio 13.16 13.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
35.04 PCF Ratio 59.60 59.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
9.52 EV to EBITDA 251.35 251.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $8.05 (USD) for CECO:NAS

Company CECO:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.77 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.87 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.33 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.37 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.18 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$3.42 (USD) 0
$8.16 (USD) 0
$5.69 (USD) 0
$14.91 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 4.44
PB Ratio 1.68
PS Ratio 0.68
PCF Ratio 40.48
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CECO:NAS for the last 10 years was  1.67

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CECO:NAS and generated a book value of  $5.09 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $8.50 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for CECO:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for CECO:NAS for 2019 of $18.00 (USD).

CECO:NAS Career Education

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-2-20

Current Price: 16.37 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019
Mean EPS 1.10
# EPS Analysts 1
Mean Revenue 600.00
# Revenue Analysts 1
Mean Target Price 18.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 112.60
Mean Net Income 79.30
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 26.00
Mean Growth Rate 15.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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