Black Knight (BKI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Black Knight(BKI:NYS)

Technology:Software-Infrastructure

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$52.00 (USD) 25/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$52.81 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.6%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $57.92 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $46.98 (USD)
Multiples: $49.16 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BKI:NYS USD)

Price 52.00
Range 51.96 – 52.75
52 week 42.95 – 55.85
Open 52.46
Vol / Avg. 1.3M/843317
Mkt cap 7.8B
P/E 45.61
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.14
Shares 150.01M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Black Knight Inc is a holding company whose subsidiaries are providers of integrated technology, workflow automation, and data and analytics to the mortgage industry. Its services include mortgage processing, real estate data, and analytics capabilities. Black Knight’s business is organized in two segments: technology, which offers software and hosting solutions; and data and analytics, which offers solutions to support technology products. The technology segment derives revenue from mortgage processing, outsourced business processing services, and software-related services. The data and analytics segment derives revenue from data and valuation-related services. A large majority of the firm’s revenue is generated in the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BKI:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $46.98 (USD) for BKI:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BKI:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $46.98 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.76 $61.70 $37.21
Terminal Growth Rate 1.80 $38.04 $60.44
Tax Rate 0.18 $50.92 $43.04
Cash Flow 647,957,000 $43.63 $50.32
Capital Expenditures -32,500,000 $46.82 $47.13
Long Term Debt 1,580,500,000 $47.51 $46.45

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $88.08 (USD) for BKI:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $56.68 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were F5 Networks (FFIV:NAS), Fair Isaac (FICO:NYS), Guidewire Software (GWRE:NYS), j2 Global (JCOM:NAS) and Ultimate Software Group (ULTI:NAS).

Company BKI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $11.65 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.36 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.80 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.20 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$76.13 (USD) 0.0
$126.60 (USD) 0.0
$46.30 (USD) 0.0
$65.63 (USD) 0.0
$125.76 (USD) 0.0
BKI:NYS Ratios Used Average Values FFIV:NAS FICO:NYS GWRE:NYS JCOM:NAS ULTI:NAS
27.18 PE Ratio 66.78 19.94 46.43 0.00 29.02 171.74
4.22 PB Ratio 10.87 6.79 28.73 4.72 3.55 10.56
6.69 PS Ratio 6.29 4.54 6.54 9.40 3.12 7.86
17.59 PCF Ratio 26.70 12.88 28.60 47.68 9.69 34.64
18.17 EV to EBITDA 39.24 12.33 28.16 75.65 10.76 69.32

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $49.16 (USD) for BKI:NYS

Company BKI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $11.65 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.36 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.80 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.20 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$62.38 (USD) 0
$70.02 (USD) 0
$20.92 (USD) 0
$32.64 (USD) 0
$59.85 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 54.72
PB Ratio 6.01
PS Ratio 2.84
PCF Ratio 11.67
EV to EBITDA 18.68

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BKI:NYS for the last 3 years was  5.96

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BKI:NYS and generated a book value of  $11.96 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $71.34 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for BKI:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for BKI:NYS for 2019 of $57.92 (USD).

BKI:NYS Black Knight

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-2-22

Current Price: 52 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 1.95 2.22 2.44
# EPS Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Revenue 1,190.70 1,277.20 1,377.90
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 57.92
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 531.70 591.30 636.50
Mean Net Income 283.60 315.40
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 26.00 26.00
Mean Growth Rate 15.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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