Blue Apron Holdings (APRN:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Blue Apron Holdings(APRN:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Specialty Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$1.29 (USD) 26/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$1.78 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 38.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $2.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $1.36 (USD)
Multiples: $1.96 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (APRN:NYS USD)

Price 1.29
Range 1.24 – 1.38
52 week 0.66 – 3.92
Open 1.37
Vol / Avg. 2.6M/3.59M
Mkt cap 267.37M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.63
Shares 194.52M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Blue Apron Holdings Inc is a United States based company involved in discovering new recipes, ingredients, and cooking techniques to prepare meals which are sent along with fresh, seasonal ingredients, directly to customers. The company offers its customers two flexible plans, a 2-Serving Plan; and a Family Plan. Blue Apron’s recipes are accompanied by printed and digital content, including how-to-cook instructions and the stories of its suppliers and specialty ingredients. The company also sells wine, cooking tools, utensils, and pantry items.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for APRN:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($0.26) (USD) for APRN:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $0.95 (USD) for APRN:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $3.04 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Barnes & Noble (BKS:NYS), Conn’s (CONN:NAS), MarineMax (HZO:NYS), Winmark (WINA:NAS) and Zumiez (ZUMZ:NAS).

Company APRN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.63) (USD)
Book Value/Share $0.61 (USD)
Sales/Share $3.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.40) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.41) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$0.69 (USD) 0.0
$1.21 (USD) 0.0
($0.80) (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
APRN:NYS Ratios Used Average Values BKS:NYS CONN:NAS HZO:NYS WINA:NAS ZUMZ:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 10.28 0.00 0.00 10.28 0.00 0.00
2.28 PB Ratio 1.12 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.00 0.00
0.40 PS Ratio 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00
0.00 PCF Ratio 6.71 0.00 0.00 6.71 0.00 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 8.61 0.00 0.00 8.61 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $1.96 (USD) for APRN:NYS

Company APRN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.63) (USD)
Book Value/Share $0.61 (USD)
Sales/Share $3.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.40) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.41) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$1.35 (USD) 0
$2.58 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 2.20
PS Ratio 0.74
PCF Ratio 0.00
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  APRN:NYS for the last 1 years was  2.21

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  APRN:NYS and generated a book value of  $0.61 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $1.36 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for APRN:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for APRN:NYS for 2019 of $2.00 (USD).

APRN:NYS Blue Apron Holdings

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 4 0 3.4000 Hold 2019-2-25

Current Price: 1.29 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS -0.36 -0.20 -0.07
# EPS Analysts 5 3 2
Mean Revenue 558.00 593.80 680.60
# Revenue Analysts 4 3 2
Mean Target Price 2.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 4.00
Mean Net Income -54.30 -35.30 13.40
Mean Debt Outstanding -8.00 -6.00 -10.00
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 12.00 12.00 13.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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