Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Armada Hoffler Properties(AHH:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$15.25 (USD) 04/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$16.70 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 9.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $19.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $13.24 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AHH:NYS USD)

Price 15.25
Range 15.13 – 15.35
52 week 12.97 – 16.10
Open 15.24
Vol / Avg. 155437/186556
Mkt cap 767.61M
P/E 42.36
Div/yield 0.80/0.05
EPS 0.36
Shares 50.34M
Beta 0.55

Company Description

Armada Hoffler Properties Inc is a real estate company. It engages in developing, building, owning and managing the institutional-grade office, retail and multifamily properties in various markets throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. The firm develops and builds properties for its own account and through joint ventures between the company and unaffiliated partners. It also provides general contracting services to third parties. Its construction and development experience include mid- and high-rise office buildings, retail strip malls and retail power centers and multifamily apartment communities. It operates in four business segments: office real estate, retail real estate, multifamily residential real estate, and general contracting and real estate services.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AHH:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($8.10) (USD) for AHH:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $6.11 (USD) for AHH:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $14.77 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Arbor Realty Trust (ABR:NYS), Apollo Commercial Real (ARI:NYS), CoreCivic (CXW:NYS), Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT:NYS) and Global Net Lease (GNL:NYS).

Company AHH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.36 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.44 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.87 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.27 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$6.82 (USD) -43.3
$9.70 (USD) 0.0
$15.67 (USD) -67.9
($1.39) (USD) -14.6
$15.62 (USD) -18.5
AHH:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ABR:NYS ARI:NYS CXW:NYS ESRT:NYS GNL:NYS
42.50 PE Ratio 371.95 8.63 12.27 15.81 39.03 1784.00
2.81 PB Ratio 1.78 1.37 0.97 1.78 3.74 1.05
5.12 PS Ratio 5.25 3.66 10.62 1.37 6.18 4.40
17.66 PCF Ratio 10.78 0.00 10.50 7.79 16.21 8.59
17.50 EV to EBITDA 12.27 0.00 0.00 10.38 10.72 15.69

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $13.24 (USD) for AHH:NYS

Company AHH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.36 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.44 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.99 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.87 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.27 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$10.58 (USD) 0
$20.63 (USD) 0
$7.05 (USD) 0
$11.83 (USD) 0
$16.10 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 29.40
PB Ratio 3.79
PS Ratio 2.36
PCF Ratio 13.66
EV to EBITDA 12.64

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AHH:NYS for the last 3 years was  3.79

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AHH:NYS and generated a book value of  $5.48 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $20.75 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AHH:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AHH:NYS for 2019 of $19.00 (USD).

AHH:NYS Armada Hoffler Properties

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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