Target (TGT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Target(TGT:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$77.88 (USD) 18/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$77.91 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $79.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $77.93 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $72.59 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (TGT:NYS USD)

Price 77.88
Range 76.92 – 78.01
52 week 61.13 – 89.26
Open 76.92
Vol / Avg. 3.85M/5.79M
Mkt cap 40.21B
P/E 14.06
Div/yield 2.52/0.03
EPS 5.51
Shares 516.33M
Beta 0.67

Company Description

Target Corp is one of the largest retailers in North America, with about 1,800 units across the U.S. Its large-format stores offer general merchandise and an assortment of food products. Target sells roughly 33% of general merchandise under various private labels. The firm has an expanding Internet sales presence and issues its own consumer credit card, the REDcard, which gives customers a 5% discount on all Target purchases for holding an account. The company generates a mid-single-digit percentage of its sales from its digital storefronts. Virtually all of the company’s sales come from the United States, particularly in the wake of its decision to exit its Canadian operations in 2015 after two years in the country.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for TGT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $121.16 (USD) for TGT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

TGT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $121.16 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.89 $158.19 $96.53
Terminal Growth Rate 1.90 $98.71 $154.87
Tax Rate 0.20 $130.80 $111.53
Cash Flow 6,805,697,200 $111.18 $131.15
Capital Expenditures -2,107,000,000 $118.32 $124.01
Long Term Debt 12,710,000,000 $122.39 $119.93

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $77.93 (USD) for TGT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $106.21 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Costco Wholesale (COST:NAS), Dollar General (DG:NYS) and Dollar Tree (DLTR:NAS).

Company TGT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $138.37 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.35 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$110.75 (USD) -46.6
$109.86 (USD) -36.2
$135.32 (USD) -36.2
$138.30 (USD) -53.4
$162.64 (USD) -29.5
TGT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values COST:NAS DG:NYS DLTR:NAS
12.11 PE Ratio 20.10 29.68 17.55 13.07
3.39 PB Ratio 5.13 7.31 4.90 3.19
0.53 PS Ratio 0.98 0.67 1.27 1.00
6.46 PCF Ratio 14.19 16.27 14.62 11.67
7.26 EV to EBITDA 13.17 15.71 13.29 10.51

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $83.44 (USD) for TGT:NYS

Company TGT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $138.37 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.35 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$80.81 (USD) 0
$72.17 (USD) 0
$82.68 (USD) 0
$88.36 (USD) 0
$93.19 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 14.67
PB Ratio 3.37
PS Ratio 0.60
PCF Ratio 7.86
EV to EBITDA 7.55

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  TGT:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.33

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  TGT:NYS and generated a book value of  $21.82 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $72.59 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for TGT:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for TGT:NYS for 2020 of $79.67 (USD).

TGT:NYS Target

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 0 3.8000 Outperform 2019-3-15

Current Price: 77.88 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 5.76 6.30 6.67
# EPS Analysts 4 2 1
Mean Revenue 77,553.30 79,430.20 81,222.00
# Revenue Analysts 3 2 1
Mean Target Price 79.67
Mean Cash Flow 10.85 11.32 11.59
Mean EBITDA 6,651.70 6,795.40 6,678.80
Mean Net Income 2,960.60 3,091.30 3,090.20
Mean Debt Outstanding 10,099.90 10,829.50 13,421.70
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 6.55
Mean Capital Expenditure 3,346.10 3,432.90 3,411.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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