Dollar Tree (DLTR:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Dollar Tree(DLTR:NAS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$105.04 (USD) 29/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$103.94 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $109.40 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $88.38 (USD)
Multiples: $118.67 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (DLTR:NAS USD)

Price 105.04
Range 103.27 – 105.24
52 week 79.51 – 105.04
Open 103.73
Vol / Avg. 1.9M/2.61M
Mkt cap 25.02B
P/E 13.62
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -6.69
Shares 238.2M
Beta 0.42

Company Description

Dollar Tree Inc operates discount stores in the United States and Canada, including over 6,800 shops under its namesake banner and more than 8,200 Family Dollar locations. The eponymous chain features branded & private-label products at a fixed $1 price point (CAD 1.25 in Canada). About 49% of Dollar Tree stores’ fiscal 2017 sales came from consumables (including food, health and beauty, and household paper and cleaning products), 46% from variety items (including toys and housewares), and 5% from seasonal and holiday merchandise. Family Dollar features branded & private-label goods at prices generally ranging from $1 to $10, with consumables constituting 75% of fiscal 2017 sales, seasonal & electronic items (including prepaid phones and toys) 10%, home products 8%, and basic apparel 7%.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for DLTR:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $259.12 (USD) for DLTR:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

DLTR:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $259.12 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.65 $333.28 $209.89
Terminal Growth Rate 1.70 $214.25 $326.70
Tax Rate -0.22 $271.43 $246.81
Cash Flow 3,093,815,700 $244.17 $274.08
Capital Expenditures 300,000 $259.12 $259.12
Long Term Debt 7,301,200,000 $260.66 $257.59

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $149.01 (USD) for DLTR:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $139.93 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Burlington Stores (BURL:NYS), Dollar General (DG:NYS) and Target (TGT:NYS).

Company DLTR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($6.69) (USD)
Book Value/Share $33.36 (USD)
Sales/Share $96.34 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.25 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.33) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
($121.88) (USD) -18.0
$137.31 (USD) 34.3
$114.30 (USD) 42.2
$82.42 (USD) -0.3
($16.22) (USD) -11.6
DLTR:NAS Ratios Used Average Values BURL:NYS DG:NYS TGT:NYS
13.07 PE Ratio 18.22 25.00 17.55 12.11
2.89 PB Ratio 22.39 58.94 4.84 3.39
1.00 PS Ratio 1.19 1.77 1.27 0.53
11.67 PCF Ratio 12.15 15.37 14.62 6.46
10.52 EV to EBITDA 12.18 16.15 13.13 7.26

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $118.67 (USD) for DLTR:NAS

Company DLTR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($6.69) (USD)
Book Value/Share $33.36 (USD)
Sales/Share $96.34 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.25 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.33) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$122.65 (USD) 0
$104.82 (USD) 0
$128.55 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 24.12
PB Ratio 3.68
PS Ratio 1.09
PCF Ratio 15.58
EV to EBITDA 11.77

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  DLTR:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.73

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  DLTR:NAS and generated a book value of  $23.70 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $88.38 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for DLTR:NAS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for DLTR:NAS for 2020 of $109.40 (USD).

DLTR:NAS Dollar Tree

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 2 0 4.3333 Outperform 2019-3-28

Current Price: 105.04 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 5.45 6.24 7.13
# EPS Analysts 5 4 1
Mean Revenue 23,727.90 24,837.60 26,039.90
# Revenue Analysts 5 4 1
Mean Target Price 109.40
Mean Cash Flow 7.86 8.91 9.97
Mean EBITDA 2,457.20 2,692.30 3,042.10
Mean Net Income 1,311.90 1,404.50 1,708.70
Mean Debt Outstanding 2,882.20 1,802.00 -794.40
Mean Tax Rate 22.55 22.75
Mean Growth Rate 9.79
Mean Capital Expenditure 948.10 746.00 703.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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