Big Lots (BIG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Big Lots(BIG:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$38.27 (USD) 04/04/2019

Weighted Valuation
$52.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 35.9%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $52.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BIG:NYS USD)

Price 38.27
Range 37.72 – 38.48
52 week 26.74 – 50.13
Open 38.03
Vol / Avg. 1.21M/2.4M
Mkt cap 1.54B
P/E 9.99
Div/yield 1.20/0.03
EPS 3.83
Shares 40.14M
Beta 1.28

Company Description

Big Lots Inc is a U.S.-based company principally engaged in operating discount retail stores. The company provides a broad range of merchandise, including food, consumables, soft home products, hard home products, furniture, electronics and accessories, and seasonal products. The company sources the merchandise from traditional and close-out channels. In addition to merchandise, the company sells gift cards, issues merchandise credits, and more. The company operates stores throughout the United States, with around one third of its stores in California, Texas, Ohio, and Florida.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BIG:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $103.91 (USD) for BIG:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BIG:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $103.91 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.84 $120.05 $91.43
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $93.15 $117.83
Tax Rate 0.24 $111.06 $96.77
Cash Flow 488,852,252 $98.55 $109.27
Capital Expenditures 5,946,200 $103.97 $103.86
Long Term Debt 257,900,000 $104.24 $103.59

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $60.14 (USD) for BIG:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $81.91 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI:NAS) and Pricesmart (PSMT:NAS).

Company BIG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.83 (USD)
Book Value/Share $17.26 (USD)
Sales/Share $127.88 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.71 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$131.43 (USD) -55.1
$69.63 (USD) -31.1
$71.38 (USD) -52.5
$147.42 (USD) -54.8
$170.45 (USD) -44.6
BIG:NYS Ratios Used Average Values OLLI:NAS PSMT:NAS
9.93 PE Ratio 34.32 41.62 27.01
2.20 PB Ratio 4.03 5.72 2.35
0.30 PS Ratio 2.54 4.53 0.56
6.65 PCF Ratio 28.02 44.60 11.43
5.83 EV to EBITDA 20.36 30.28 10.44

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $53.66 (USD) for BIG:NYS

Company BIG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.83 (USD)
Book Value/Share $17.26 (USD)
Sales/Share $127.88 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.71 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.37 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$59.20 (USD) 0
$56.60 (USD) 0
$56.92 (USD) 0
$42.13 (USD) 0
$53.44 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 15.46
PB Ratio 3.28
PS Ratio 0.45
PCF Ratio 7.37
EV to EBITDA 6.38

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BIG:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.24

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BIG:NYS and generated a book value of  $17.31 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $56.08 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for BIG:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for BIG:NYS for 2020 of $52.00 (USD).

BIG:NYS Big Lots

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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