Atlassian Corporation (TEAM:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Atlassian Corporation(TEAM:NAS)

Technology:Software – Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$181.78 (USD) 09/03/2020

Weighted Valuation
$206.67 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 13.7%

Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $206.67 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (TEAM:NAS USD)

Price 181.78
Range 178.29 – 188.94
52 week 107.75 – 196.41
Open 188.94
Vol / Avg. 2.02M/1.71M
Mkt cap 45.07B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.43
Shares 247.96M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Atlassian Corporation PLC produces software that helps teams work together more efficiently and effectively. The company provides project planning and management software, collaboration tools, and IT help desk solutions. The company operates in four segments: subscriptions (term licenses and cloud agreements), maintenance (annual maintenance contracts that provide support and periodic updates and are generally attached to perpetual license sales), perpetual license (upfront sale for indefinite usage of the software), and other (training, strategic consulting, and revenue from the Atlassian Marketplace app store). Atlassian was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for TEAM:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $35.43 (USD) for TEAM:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

TEAM:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $35.43 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.41 $42.07 $30.58
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $31.16 $41.26
Tax Rate 0.19 $37.25 $33.60
Cash Flow 668,544,585 $33.89 $36.96
Capital Expenditures -31,146,200 $35.36 $35.49
Long Term Debt 0 $35.43 $35.43

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $58.86 (USD) for TEAM:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $135.41 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Cadence Design Systems (CDNS:NAS), Ansys (ANSS:NAS), Autodesk (ADSK:NAS), Citrix Systems (CTXS:NAS) and SS&C Technologies Hldgs (SSNC:NAS).

Company TEAM:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.43) (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $6.59 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.81) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$19.06 (USD) 0.0
$73.56 (USD) 0.0
$68.32 (USD) 15.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
TEAM:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CDNS:NAS ANSS:NAS ADSK:NAS CTXS:NAS SSNC:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 61.38 29.77 72.20 148.52 23.95 32.48
78.35 PB Ratio 203.36 13.35 8.29 788.79 0.00 3.01
27.57 PS Ratio 11.16 12.41 18.95 15.20 5.71 3.52
77.51 PCF Ratio 31.14 35.11 53.48 38.64 17.30 11.18
0.00 EV to EBITDA 44.03 45.38 52.12 86.87 22.19 13.57

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $95.04 (USD) for TEAM:NAS

Company TEAM:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.43) (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $6.59 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.81) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$40.56 (USD) 0
$120.10 (USD) 0
$124.45 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 683.73
PB Ratio 17.48
PS Ratio 18.22
PCF Ratio 53.07
EV to EBITDA 341.04

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  TEAM:NAS for the last 5 years was  17.48

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  TEAM:NAS and generated a book value of  $2.32 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $40.56 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for TEAM:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for TEAM:NAS for 2021 of $206.67 (USD).

TEAM:NAS Atlassian Corporation

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 1 0 4.5000 Outperform 2020-9-2

Current Price: 181.78 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 1.27 1.68
# EPS Analysts 4 4
Mean Revenue 1,941.50 2,386.20
# Revenue Analysts 4 4
Mean Target Price 206.67
Mean Cash Flow 2.13 2.93
Mean EBITDA 73.00 128.00
Mean Net Income 321.40 431.70
Mean Debt Outstanding 2,402.00 3,115.00
Mean Tax Rate 26.50 26.50
Mean Growth Rate 24.38
Mean Capital Expenditure 36.20 44.20

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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