Tapestry (TPR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Tapestry(TPR:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Luxury Goods

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$14.56 (USD) 09/04/2020

Weighted Valuation
$19.67 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 35.1%

Valuation Models Comparables: $33.24 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $29.09 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $30.39 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $19.67 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (TPR:NYS USD)

Price 14.56
Range 14.14 – 14.95
52 week 10.58 – 29.47
Open 14.94
Vol / Avg. 5.28M/5.73M
Mkt cap 4.02B
P/E 7.26
Div/yield 1.01/0.07
EPS -2.34
Shares 276.24M
Beta 1.38

Company Description

Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman are the fashion and accessory brands that comprise Tapestry. The firm’s products are sold through about 1,500 company-operated stores, wholesale channels, and e-commerce in North America (62% of fiscal 2020 sales), Europe, Asia (32% of fiscal 2020 sales), and elsewhere. Coach (71% of fiscal 2020 sales) is best known for affordable luxury leather products. Kate Spade (23% of fiscal 2020 sales) is known for colorful patterns and graphics. Women’s handbags and accessories produced 68% of Tapestry’s sales in fiscal 2020. Stuart Weitzman, Tapestry’s smallest brand, generates nearly all (98%) of its revenue from women’s footwear.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for TPR:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $30.39 (USD) for TPR:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

TPR:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $30.39 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.53 $37.85 $25.22
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $25.69 $37.16
Tax Rate 0.27 $33.17 $27.61
Cash Flow 1,142,064,000 $27.92 $32.86
Capital Expenditures -285,300,000 $29.80 $30.98
Long Term Debt 591,400,000 $30.50 $30.28

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $40.91 (USD) for TPR:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $33.24 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Tiffany (TIF:NYS) and Signet Jewelers (SIG:NYS).

Company TPR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.34) (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $17.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.13) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -24.4
$23.59 (USD) 94.0
$37.59 (USD) 63.1
$6.91 (USD) -31.9
$0.00 (USD) 17.4
TPR:NYS Ratios Used Average Values TIF:NYS SIG:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 60.00 60.00 0.00
1.77 PB Ratio 2.86 4.63 1.10
0.82 PS Ratio 2.11 4.02 0.20
9.97 PCF Ratio 15.76 29.37 2.15
0.00 EV to EBITDA 37.72 26.14 49.29

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $29.09 (USD) for TPR:NYS

Company TPR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.34) (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $17.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.13) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$30.10 (USD) 0
$39.01 (USD) 0
$18.14 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.10
PB Ratio 3.65
PS Ratio 2.19
PCF Ratio 12.42
EV to EBITDA 11.25

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  TPR:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.81

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  TPR:NYS and generated a book value of  $8.24 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $31.43 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for TPR:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for TPR:NYS for 2021 of $19.67 (USD).

TPR:NYS Tapestry

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 0 3.8000 Outperform 2020-9-3

Current Price: 14.56 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 1.77 2.42 2.81
# EPS Analysts 5 4 1
Mean Revenue 5,080.90 5,423.00 5,621.10
# Revenue Analysts 3 2 1
Mean Target Price 19.67
Mean Cash Flow 2.80 3.33 3.91
Mean EBITDA 869.50 1,046.60 1,108.80
Mean Net Income 458.60 613.70 667.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 500.30 598.80 739.00
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 4.17
Mean Capital Expenditure 169.40 230.90 252.90

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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