Ross Stores (ROST:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Ross Stores(ROST:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$90.22 (USD) 09/11/2020

Weighted Valuation
$87.50 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 3.0%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $93.81 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $78.04 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $101.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (ROST:NAS USD)

Price 90.22
Range 89.13 – 91.38
52 week 59.97 – 123.81
Open 91.16
Vol / Avg. 2.26M/2.59M
Mkt cap 32.12B
P/E 60.15
Div/yield 1.02/0.01
EPS 4.60
Shares 356.01M
Beta 0.74

Company Description

Ross Stores is a leading American off-price apparel and home fashion retailer, operating over 1,800 stores (at the end of fiscal 2019) across the Ross Dress for Less and dd’s Discounts banners. Ross offers a variety of name-brand products and targets undercutting conventional retailers’ regular prices by 20%-70%. The company uses an opportunistic, flexible merchandising approach; together with a relatively low-frills shopping environment centered on a treasure-hunt experience, Ross maximizes inventory turnover and traffic, enabling its low-price approach. In fiscal 2019, 26% of sales came from the ladies’ department, 25% from home accents (including bed and bath), 14% from men’s, 13% from each of accessories and shoes, and 9% from children’s. All sales were made in the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ROST:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $93.81 (USD) for ROST:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ROST:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $93.81 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 4.93 $119.17 $77.03
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $78.52 $116.89
Tax Rate 0.23 $100.28 $87.35
Cash Flow 2,681,800,000 $88.14 $99.49
Capital Expenditures -397,932,600 $93.01 $94.61
Long Term Debt 396,259,000 $93.87 $93.76

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $194.91 (USD) for ROST:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $116.00 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Lululemon Athletica (LULU:NAS), Burlington Stores (BURL:NYS), L Brands (LB:NYS), Gap (GPS:NYS) and TJX Companies (TJX:NYS).

Company ROST:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.05 (USD)
Sales/Share $36.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.55 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.11 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$129.57 (USD) -13.8
$178.05 (USD) 95.7
$115.15 (USD) 49.5
$107.49 (USD) 25.5
$382.55 (USD) 25.2
ROST:NAS Ratios Used Average Values LULU:NAS BURL:NYS LB:NYS GPS:NYS TJX:NYS
60.15 PE Ratio 86.38 76.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 96.70
11.20 PB Ratio 22.11 20.41 51.33 0.00 2.76 13.93
2.51 PS Ratio 3.20 10.60 2.33 0.68 0.44 1.94
25.43 PCF Ratio 33.07 60.35 71.40 5.69 8.41 19.48
32.40 EV to EBITDA 209.11 43.78 674.96 80.96 0.00 36.75

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $69.79 (USD) for ROST:NAS

Company ROST:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.05 (USD)
Sales/Share $36.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.55 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.11 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$34.56 (USD) 0
$81.18 (USD) 0
$77.20 (USD) 0
$62.86 (USD) 0
$93.15 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.04
PB Ratio 10.08
PS Ratio 2.14
PCF Ratio 17.72
EV to EBITDA 13.11

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ROST:NAS for the last 10 years was  9.71

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ROST:NAS and generated a book value of  $8.04 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $78.04 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for ROST:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for ROST:NAS for 2021 of $101.00 (USD).

ROST:NAS Ross Stores

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 3 0 4.1429 Outperform 2020-9-10

Current Price: 90.22 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.03 4.65 5.14
# EPS Analysts 5 4 2
Mean Revenue 12,542.50 17,016.80 17,951.60
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 2
Mean Target Price 101.00
Mean Cash Flow 1.35 6.91 6.53
Mean EBITDA 797.30 2,578.20 2,681.80
Mean Net Income 264.20 1,674.60 1,780.40
Mean Debt Outstanding -1,378.80 -1,720.60 -984.20
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 7.48
Mean Capital Expenditure 378.60 649.20 559.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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