Raven Industries (RAVN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Raven Industries(RAVN:NAS)

Industrials:Specialty Industrial Machinery

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$22.27 (USD) 09/21/2020

Weighted Valuation
$22.68 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.9%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $21.46 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $23.50 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (RAVN:NAS USD)

Price 22.27
Range 21.56 – 23.08
52 week 16.58 – 36.13
Open 22.99
Vol / Avg. 252203/249614
Mkt cap 798.27M
P/E 34.80
Div/yield 0.52/0.02
EPS 0.97
Shares 35.85M
Beta 1.41

Company Description

Raven Industries Inc is a diversified technology company providing products to customers within the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction, and defense markets. The company has three reportable segments namely Applied Technology, Engineered Films Division, and Aerostar Division. Applied Technology sells its precision agriculture control products to both original equipment manufacturers and through aftermarket distribution partners. Its Engineered Films produces high-performance plastic films and sheeting for geomembrane, agricultural, construction, and industrial applications, and Aerostar serves the aerospace/defense, radar, and lighter-than-air markets. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Engineered Films segment.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for RAVN:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $21.46 (USD) for RAVN:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

RAVN:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $21.46 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.11 $24.61 $19.01
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $19.35 $24.17
Tax Rate 0.14 $22.71 $20.22
Cash Flow 82,606,000 $20.39 $22.54
Capital Expenditures 0 $21.46 $21.46
Long Term Debt 0 $21.46 $21.46

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $30.71 (USD) for RAVN:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $27.24 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Circor International (CIR:NYS), EnPro Industries (NPO:NYS), Franklin Electric (FELE:NAS), Gorman-Rupp (GRC:NYS) and The Middleby (MIDD:NAS).

Company RAVN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.64 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.86 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.92 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.64 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.56 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$15.76 (USD) 26.9
$20.01 (USD) -0.4
$15.24 (USD) 66.7
$18.40 (USD) 17.8
$54.05 (USD) 23.1
RAVN:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CIR:NYS NPO:NYS FELE:NAS GRC:NYS MIDD:NAS
34.80 PE Ratio 24.62 0.00 0.00 30.01 26.73 17.13
2.51 PB Ratio 2.26 1.85 1.03 3.39 2.49 2.53
2.25 PS Ratio 1.54 0.59 1.01 2.13 2.11 1.84
13.56 PCF Ratio 11.29 0.00 7.20 12.04 14.82 11.10
19.33 EV to EBITDA 34.72 114.41 16.22 17.65 13.32 12.01

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $30.60 (USD) for RAVN:NAS

Company RAVN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.64 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.86 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.92 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.64 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.56 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$21.86 (USD) 0
$34.64 (USD) 0
$33.21 (USD) 0
$33.97 (USD) 0
$29.34 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 34.16
PB Ratio 3.91
PS Ratio 3.35
PCF Ratio 20.68
EV to EBITDA 18.85

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  RAVN:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.72

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  RAVN:NAS and generated a book value of  $8.88 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $33.03 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for RAVN:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for RAVN:NAS for 2021 of $23.50 (USD).

RAVN:NAS Raven Industries

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2020-9-18

Current Price: 22.27 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 0.63 0.92 1.15
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 354.20 418.80 485.20
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 23.50
Mean Cash Flow 1.53 1.76 1.94
Mean EBITDA 42.80 64.30 80.20
Mean Net Income 22.80 33.30 42.10
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 9.30 15.00 15.00
Mean Growth Rate 10.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 26.00 51.20 58.20

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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