TJX Companies (TJX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

TJX Companies(TJX:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$56.02 (USD) 09/18/2020

Weighted Valuation
$56.36 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.6%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $56.38 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $43.16 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $60.75 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (TJX:NYS USD)

Price 56.02
Range 55.47 – 56.74
52 week 36.76 – 63.99
Open 55.72
Vol / Avg. 6.54M/7.22M
Mkt cap 67.17B
P/E 100.04
Div/yield 0.89/0.01
EPS 2.67
Shares 1.2B
Beta 0.74

Company Description

TJX is a leading off-price retailer of apparel, home fashions, and other merchandise. It sells a variety of branded goods, opportunistically buying inventory from a network of over 21,000 vendors worldwide. TJX targets undercutting conventional retailers’ regular prices by 20%-60%, capitalizing on a flexible merchandising network, relatively low-frills stores, and a treasure-hunt shopping experience to drive margins and inventory turnover. TJX derived 76% of fiscal 2020 revenue from the United States, with 13% from Europe (mostly the United Kingdom and Germany), 10% from Canada, and the remainder from Australia. The company operated 4,529 stores at the end of fiscal 2020 under the T.J. Maxx, T.K. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Winners, Homesense, Winners, and Sierra banners.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for TJX:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $56.38 (USD) for TJX:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

TJX:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $56.38 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.16 $71.82 $46.14
Terminal Growth Rate 0.20 $47.06 $70.40
Tax Rate 0.26 $60.47 $52.29
Cash Flow 5,972,220,600 $52.82 $59.94
Capital Expenditures -1,063,999,800 $55.77 $56.99
Long Term Debt 1,615,952,000 $56.45 $56.31

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $132.16 (USD) for TJX:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $64.54 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Lululemon Athletica (LULU:NAS), Ross Stores (ROST:NAS) and Burlington Stores (BURL:NYS).

Company TJX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.56 (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.89 (USD)
Sales/Share $27.88 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.78 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.41 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$37.26 (USD) -16.3
$108.26 (USD) 0.0
$138.76 (USD) 20.4
$135.44 (USD) 20.0
$163.67 (USD) 17.0
TJX:NYS Ratios Used Average Values LULU:NAS ROST:NAS BURL:NYS
100.04 PE Ratio 66.53 71.54 61.51 0.00
14.41 PB Ratio 27.85 19.20 11.46 52.91
2.01 PS Ratio 4.98 9.97 2.56 2.40
20.15 PCF Ratio 52.12 56.76 26.01 73.60
37.87 EV to EBITDA 255.17 41.20 33.08 691.23

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $40.47 (USD) for TJX:NYS

Company TJX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.56 (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.89 (USD)
Sales/Share $27.88 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.78 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.41 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$12.18 (USD) 0
$44.49 (USD) 0
$45.49 (USD) 0
$47.34 (USD) 0
$52.87 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 21.75
PB Ratio 11.45
PS Ratio 1.63
PCF Ratio 17.03
EV to EBITDA 12.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  TJX:NYS for the last 10 years was  11.11

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  TJX:NYS and generated a book value of  $3.89 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $43.16 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for TJX:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for TJX:NYS for 2021 of $60.75 (USD).

TJX:NYS TJX Companies

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
6 1 0 4.3750 Outperform 2020-9-17

Current Price: 56.02 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 0.73 2.67 2.90
# EPS Analysts 6 6 2
Mean Revenue 33,484.80 42,303.10 43,964.10
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 2
Mean Target Price 60.75
Mean Cash Flow 1.07 3.72 3.88
Mean EBITDA 1,579.00 5,465.10 5,960.30
Mean Net Income 303.50 3,341.40 3,454.90
Mean Debt Outstanding 8,326.50 9,029.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 7.23
Mean Capital Expenditure 594.30 1,299.00 1,321.90

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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