Walmart (WMT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Walmart(WMT:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$135.99 (USD) 09/23/2020

Weighted Valuation
$133.99 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.5%

Valuation Models Comparables: $116.19 (USD)
Multiples: $111.65 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $146.33 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (WMT:NYS USD)

Price 135.99
Range 135.82 – 139.24
52 week 104.05 – 147.68
Open 139.00
Vol / Avg. 7.69M/14.91M
Mkt cap 385.36B
P/E 21.69
Div/yield 2.12/0.02
EPS 5.19
Shares 2.83B
Beta 0.28

Company Description

America’s largest retailer by sales, Walmart operates over 11,500 stores under 56 banners, selling a variety of general merchandise and grocery items. Its home market accounted for 77% of sales in fiscal 2020, with Mexico and Central America (6%), the United Kingdom (6%), and Canada (4%) its largest external markets. In the United States, around 56% of sales come from grocery, 34% from general merchandise, and 10% from health and wellness items. The company operates several e-commerce properties apart from its eponymous site, including Flipkart and shoes.com (it also owns a roughly 10% stake in Chinese online retailer JD.com). Combined, e-commerce accounted for about 7% of fiscal 2020 sales.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for WMT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $214.15 (USD) for WMT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

WMT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $214.15 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 3.48 $309.43 $161.52
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $165.21 $302.65
Tax Rate 0.24 $228.89 $199.42
Cash Flow 37,909,400,000 $199.68 $228.62
Capital Expenditures -10,177,400,000 $210.46 $217.85
Long Term Debt 47,491,000,000 $214.99 $213.31

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $116.19 (USD) for WMT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $137.27 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Costco Wholesale (COST:NAS) and Target (TGT:NYS).

Company WMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.27 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.58 (USD)
Sales/Share $189.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.58 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $11.81 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$197.75 (USD) -34.5
$200.21 (USD) -29.5
$176.60 (USD) -49.9
$149.94 (USD) -44.4
$199.52 (USD) -28.6
WMT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values COST:NAS TGT:NYS
21.69 PE Ratio 31.54 41.22 21.85
5.12 PB Ratio 7.53 9.06 6.01
0.72 PS Ratio 0.93 0.95 0.91
11.75 PCF Ratio 15.15 22.13 8.16
11.61 EV to EBITDA 16.89 22.50 11.28

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $111.65 (USD) for WMT:NYS

Company WMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.27 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.58 (USD)
Sales/Share $189.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.58 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $11.81 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$131.18 (USD) 0
$92.59 (USD) 0
$100.64 (USD) 0
$108.06 (USD) 0
$125.77 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 20.92
PB Ratio 3.48
PS Ratio 0.53
PCF Ratio 9.34
EV to EBITDA 10.65

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  WMT:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.37

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  WMT:NYS and generated a book value of  $26.90 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $90.68 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for WMT:NYS. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for WMT:NYS for 2021 of $146.33 (USD).

WMT:NYS Walmart

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
6 1 0 4.3750 Outperform 2020-9-22

Current Price: 135.99 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 5.08 5.65 6.15
# EPS Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Revenue 550,274.40 557,426.80 575,655.40
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 2
Mean Target Price 146.33
Mean Cash Flow 9.62 9.97 10.69
Mean EBITDA 33,905.20 35,436.20 37,909.40
Mean Net Income 15,156.80 15,815.20 17,005.80
Mean Debt Outstanding 24,048.90 21,886.00 15,092.60
Mean Tax Rate 25.30 25.50 25.50
Mean Growth Rate 6.64
Mean Capital Expenditure 9,923.40 11,356.20 12,170.60

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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