Kraton (KRA:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Kraton (KRA:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Kraton(KRA:NYS)

Basic Materials:Specialty Chemicals

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$37.20 (USD) 03/19/2021

Weighted Valuation
$30.36 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 18.4%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $30.36 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $16.00 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (KRA:NYS USD)

Price 37.20
Range 35.55 – 38.17
52 week 4.66 – 44.49
Open 36.92
Vol / Avg. 685237/355599
Mkt cap 1.19B
P/E 4.31
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -7.08
Shares 31.89M
Beta 2.40

Company Description

Kraton Corp is a specialty chemicals company. The company’s operating segment includes Polymer and Chemical. It generates maximum revenue from the Polymer segment. The Polymer segment is comprised of SBCs (styrenic block copolymers) and other engineered polymers business. Its Chemical segment is comprised of our pine-based specialty products business. Geographically, it has a presence in the United States; Germany, and All other countries. It is used in a wide range of applications, including adhesives, coatings, consumer and personal care products, sealants, lubricants, medical, packaging, automotive, paving and roofing, and footwear products.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for KRA:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $2.17 (USD) for KRA:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

KRA:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $2.17 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 12.75 $8.86 ($3.27)
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 ($2.51) $7.92
Tax Rate 0.13 $5.95 ($1.62)
Cash Flow 327,437,000 ($1.97) $6.31
Capital Expenditures -104,292,600 $1.09 $3.25
Long Term Debt 1,722,087,000 $4.87 ($0.53)

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $37.90 (USD) for KRA:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $48.35 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were GCP Applied Technologies (GCP:NYS), PQ Group Holdings (PQG:NYS), Loop Industries (LOOP:NAS), Gevo (GEVO:NAS) and Amyris (AMRS:NAS).

Company KRA:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($7.08) (USD)
Book Value/Share $18.95 (USD)
Sales/Share $49.24 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.77 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.20) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -34.6
$123.23 (USD) -61.6
$101.18 (USD) -63.7
$54.04 (USD) -65.7
$0.00 (USD) -20.2
KRA:NYS Ratios Used Average Values GCP:NYS PQG:NYS LOOP:NAS GEVO:NAS AMRS:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 18.23 18.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.96 PB Ratio 6.50 2.81 1.83 7.83 13.55 0.00
0.76 PS Ratio 33.96 2.02 2.09 0.00 107.23 24.48
7.80 PCF Ratio 18.10 25.86 10.34 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 8.42 8.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $27.90 (USD) for KRA:NYS

Company KRA:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($7.08) (USD)
Book Value/Share $18.95 (USD)
Sales/Share $49.24 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.77 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.20) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$32.12 (USD) 0
$27.14 (USD) 0
$24.45 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 10.86
PB Ratio 1.70
PS Ratio 0.55
PCF Ratio 5.13
EV to EBITDA 8.73

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  KRA:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.60

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  KRA:NYS and generated a book value of  $18.96 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $30.36 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for KRA:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for KRA:NYS for 2021 of $16.00 (USD).

KRA:NYS Kraton

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 0 1 1.0000 Sell 2021-3-18

Current Price: 37.2 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 1.44 2.26 2.75
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 1,632.30 1,742.60 1,817.60
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 16.00
Mean Cash Flow 5.87 6.73 7.53
Mean EBITDA 252.80 294.00 317.90
Mean Net Income 46.50 73.50 85.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 769.00 683.30 633.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 94.50 94.50 94.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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