Penn National Gaming (PENN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Penn National Gaming (PENN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Penn National Gaming(PENN:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Resorts & Casinos

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$102.84 (USD) 03/30/2021

Weighted Valuation
$96.96 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 5.7%

Valuation Models Comparables: $96.96 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $140.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (PENN:NAS USD)

Price 102.84
Range 96.86 – 103.46
52 week 9.21 – 136.47
Open 97.83
Vol / Avg. 4.49M/6.75M
Mkt cap 16.09B
P/E 49.14
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -5.00
Shares 156.49M
Beta 2.75

Company Description

Penn National Gaming Inc is the operator of gaming and racing properties and video gaming terminal ("VGT") operations in the U.S. It operates retail sports betting across the company’s portfolio, as well as online sports betting, online social casino, bingo, and online casinos. It offers live sports betting at its properties in Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for PENN:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $74.96 (USD) for PENN:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

PENN:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $74.96 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 13.75 $86.26 $65.59
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $67.27 $84.23
Tax Rate 0.20 $81.56 $68.36
Cash Flow 2,371,369,000 $69.93 $79.99
Capital Expenditures 198,449,600 $75.31 $74.61
Long Term Debt 5,197,666,000 $76.62 $73.30

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $72.86 (USD) for PENN:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $96.96 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Wynn Resorts (WYNN:NAS), Caesars Entertainment (CZR:NAS), Red Rock Resorts (RRR:NAS), MGM Resorts Intl (MGM:NYS) and Vail Resorts (MTN:NYS).

Company PENN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($5.00) (USD)
Book Value/Share $16.83 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.57 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 42.3
$106.83 (USD) 28.9
$120.73 (USD) -59.4
($22.96) (USD) -47.2
$71.34 (USD) -25.6
PENN:NAS Ratios Used Average Values WYNN:NAS CZR:NAS RRR:NAS MGM:NYS MTN:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6.11 PB Ratio 6.35 0.00 3.62 10.87 2.91 8.00
3.85 PS Ratio 4.52 6.39 3.26 1.95 3.66 7.35
40.67 PCF Ratio 23.85 0.00 0.00 10.83 0.00 36.87
331.85 EV to EBITDA 124.80 0.00 346.57 22.10 92.40 38.11

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $26.01 (USD) for PENN:NAS

Company PENN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($5.00) (USD)
Book Value/Share $16.83 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.71 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.57 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$68.73 (USD) 0
$17.30 (USD) 0
$12.64 (USD) 0
$5.36 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 21.72
PB Ratio 4.08
PS Ratio 0.65
PCF Ratio 5.00
EV to EBITDA 9.37

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  PENN:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.21

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  PENN:NAS and generated a book value of  $17.06 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $54.73 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for PENN:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for PENN:NAS for 2021 of $140.00 (USD).

PENN:NAS Penn National Gaming

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-3-29

Current Price: 102.84 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.46 4.01 7.45
# EPS Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Revenue 5,066.30 5,901.20 6,962.40
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 140.00
Mean Cash Flow 6.18 8.26 9.77
Mean EBITDA 1,748.80 1,990.20 2,302.30
Mean Net Income 604.00 929.90 1,166.20
Mean Debt Outstanding 5,950.00 5,194.30 2,228.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 221.50 264.20 278.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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