Ferrari (RACE:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Ferrari (RACE:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Ferrari(RACE:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Auto Manufacturers

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
177.50 (EUR) / $208.77 (USD) 03/30/2021

Weighted Valuation
197.82 (EUR) / $232.67 (USD)

Use a conversion rate of 1.1762 from EUR to USD.

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 11.4%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: 200.74 (EUR) / $236.11 (USD)
Multiples: 193.43 (EUR) / $227.51 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $276.49 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (RACE:NYS USD)

Price 208.77
Range 203.27 – 208.95
52 week 146.48 – 229.69
Open 203.48
Vol / Avg. 516711/372317
Mkt cap 51.2B
P/E 54.00
Div/yield 1.13/0.01
EPS 3.28
Shares 248.32M
Beta 0.92

Company Description

Ferrari engineers and manufactures some of the world’s most expensive exotic sports cars. The Ferrari brand is synonymous with Formula One racing, exclusivity, Italian design, and state-of-the-art technology. Ferrari also has a captive finance company that provides funding for dealers and clients.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for RACE:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of 140.58 (EUR) / $165.35 (USD) for RACE:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

RACE:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $140.58 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.76 $179.17 $114.96
Terminal Growth Rate 1.80 $117.14 $175.86
Tax Rate 0.09 $149.15 $132.02
Cash Flow 2,467,428,400 $132.05 $149.12
Capital Expenditures -272,204,600 $139.73 $141.43
Long Term Debt 2,327,352,804 $141.05 $140.12

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of 72.73 (EUR) / $85.55 (USD) for RACE:NYS. We also generated a valuation of 199.79 (EUR) / $235.00 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Ford Motor (F:NYS), General Motors (GM:NYS), Li Auto (LI:NAS), NIO (NIO:NYS) and Tata Motors (TTM:NYS).

Company RACE:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share 3.28 (EUR) / $3.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share 7.20 (EUR) / $8.47 (USD)
Sales/Share 18.70 (EUR) / $22.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 4.53 (EUR) / $5.33 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 6.17 (EUR) / $7.26 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
44.32 (EUR) / $52.13 (USD) 76.6
34.72 (EUR) / $40.84 (USD) 0.0
98.35 (EUR) / $115.68 (USD) 59.4
23.62 (EUR) / $27.79 (USD) -20.0
79.76 (EUR) / $93.81 (USD) 0.0
RACE:NYS Ratios Used Average Values F:NYS GM:NYS LI:NAS NIO:NYS TTM:NYS
54.00 PE Ratio 13.51 0.00 13.51 0.00 0.00 0.00
24.64 PB Ratio 4.82 1.62 1.87 4.58 14.10 1.93
9.49 PS Ratio 5.26 0.39 0.69 6.95 17.87 0.40
39.17 PCF Ratio 7.97 2.04 5.06 20.92 0.00 3.86
39.22 EV to EBITDA 147.96 20.35 7.55 553.05 0.00 10.88

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  193.43 (EUR) / $227.51 (USD) for RACE:NYS

Company RACE:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share 3.28 (EUR) / $3.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share 7.20 (EUR) / $8.47 (USD)
Sales/Share 18.70 (EUR) / $22.00 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 4.53 (EUR) / $5.33 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 6.17 (EUR) / $7.26 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
187.84 (EUR) / $220.93 (USD) 0
200.99 (EUR) / $236.40 (USD) 0
170.61 (EUR) / $200.67 (USD) 0
173.52 (EUR) / $204.10 (USD) 0
234.19 (EUR) / $275.46 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 57.27
PB Ratio 27.90
PS Ratio 9.12
PCF Ratio 38.29
EV to EBITDA 37.95

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  RACE:NYS for the last 6 years was  27.90

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  RACE:NYS and generated a book value of  7.20 (EUR) / $8.46 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  200.74 (EUR) / $236.11 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for RACE:NYS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for RACE:NYS for 2021 of 235.07 (EUR) / $276.49 (USD).

RACE:NYS Ferrari

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 0 2 3.6667 Outperform 2021-3-29

Current Price: 208.77 USD

Analyst Consensus
EUR Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 5.41 5.78 7.04
# EPS Analysts 6 4 2
Mean Revenue 5,145.40 5,671.10 6,383.10
# Revenue Analysts 5 4 2
Mean Target Price 235.07
Mean Cash Flow 7.81 10.47 12.95
Mean EBITDA 1,820.40 2,119.40 2,423.80
Mean Net Income 930.40 1,065.10 1,303.70
Mean Debt Outstanding 1,297.40 1,038.40 -774.70
Mean Tax Rate 21.00 21.00 21.00
Mean Growth Rate 8.20
Mean Capital Expenditure 954.70 920.00 962.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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