Radian Group (RDN:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Radian Group (RDN:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Radian Group(RDN:NYS)

Financial Services:Insurance – Specialty

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$22.96 (USD) 03/30/2021

Weighted Valuation
$24.37 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 6.2%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $27.51 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $20.07 (USD)
Multiples: $23.57 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $24.50 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (RDN:NYS USD)

Price 22.96
Range 22.49 – 23.05
52 week 11.24 – 23.52
Open 22.52
Vol / Avg. 869364/1.55M
Mkt cap 4.4B
P/E 11.48
Div/yield 0.50/0.02
EPS 2.00
Shares 191.69M
Beta 1.51

Company Description

Radian Group Inc provides mortgage insurance and services to the real estate and mortgage finance industries. Radian’s mortgage insurance provides coverage to lending institutions throughout the United States. Its services include analytics and consulting for buyers and sellers of, and investors in, mortgage- and real estate-related loans and securities and other asset-backed securities. Insurance premiums account for more than three fourths of the company’s revenue. Services revenue and investment income are the other principal sources of revenue. Radian stopped writing new international business in 2008. Its only remaining mortgage exposure outside of the United States is in Hong Kong, where the company continues to wind down its business.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for RDN:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $20.07 (USD) for RDN:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

RDN:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $20.07 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 14.20 $22.02 $18.44
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $18.75 $21.66
Tax Rate 0.18 $21.33 $18.82
Cash Flow 595,323,234 $19.02 $21.13
Capital Expenditures -26,973,600 $20.04 $20.11
Long Term Debt 0 $20.07 $20.07

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $52.47 (USD) for RDN:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $26.83 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Trupanion (TRUP:NAS), AMERISAFE (AMSF:NAS), Trean Insurance Group (TIG:NAS), MGIC Investment (MTG:NYS) and First American Financial (FAF:NYS).

Company RDN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.00 (USD)
Book Value/Share $22.35 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.32 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$21.10 (USD) -72.8
$70.67 (USD) 46.5
$28.45 (USD) 0.0
$31.08 (USD) 84.4
$0.00 (USD) -94.0
RDN:NYS Ratios Used Average Values TRUP:NAS AMSF:NAS TIG:NAS MTG:NYS FAF:NYS
11.48 PE Ratio 10.55 0.00 14.46 7.94 10.57 9.23
1.03 PB Ratio 3.16 8.66 2.85 2.05 0.98 1.27
3.14 PS Ratio 3.89 5.32 3.69 5.44 4.08 0.91
6.86 PCF Ratio 34.16 124.07 19.75 14.38 6.69 5.93
0.00 EV to EBITDA 995.46 995.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $23.57 (USD) for RDN:NYS

Company RDN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.00 (USD)
Book Value/Share $22.35 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.32 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$19.55 (USD) 0
$26.64 (USD) 0
$22.72 (USD) 0
$29.23 (USD) 0
$19.72 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 9.77
PB Ratio 1.19
PS Ratio 3.11
PCF Ratio 8.73
EV to EBITDA 6.98

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  RDN:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.23

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  RDN:NYS and generated a book value of  $22.36 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $27.51 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for RDN:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for RDN:NYS for 2021 of $24.50 (USD).

RDN:NYS Radian Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 2 0 3.6667 Outperform 2021-3-29

Current Price: 22.96 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.83 3.10 3.20
# EPS Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Revenue 1,348.50 1,387.70 1,332.50
# Revenue Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Target Price 24.50
Mean Cash Flow 3.48 3.67 4.05
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 528.00 559.20 545.60
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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