Twilio (TWLO:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Twilio (TWLO:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report


Communication Services:Internet Content & Information

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Close Price/Date
$368.24 (USD) 04/09/2021

Weighted Valuation
$459.63 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 24.8%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $459.63 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $504.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (TWLO:NYS USD)

Price 368.24
Range 358.75 – 369.27
52 week 95.89 – 443.49
Open 365.00
Vol / Avg. 1.06M/2.12M
Mkt cap 62.78B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -3.35
Shares 170.48M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Twilio is a communications-platform-as-a-service company that allows software developers to integrate messaging and communications functionality into existing or new applications via application programming interfaces and software development kits. The firm’s Programmable Communications Cloud addresses several use cases, including Programmable Voice to make and receive phone calls, Programmable Messaging for SMS and MMS delivery, and Programmable Video, which allows developers to embed video functionality in mobile and web applications.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for TWLO:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $18.86 (USD) for TWLO:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

TWLO:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $18.86 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.60 $22.42 $16.24
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $16.51 $22.04
Tax Rate 0.04 $19.98 $17.74
Cash Flow 293,901,046 $17.77 $19.95
Capital Expenditures -5,618,000 $18.84 $18.88
Long Term Debt 0 $18.86 $18.86

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $501.81 (USD) for TWLO:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $214.35 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Zillow Gr (Z:NAS), Match Group (MTCH:NAS), IAC/InterActiveCorp (IAC:NAS), Airbnb (ABNB:NAS) and Twitter (TWTR:NYS).

Company TWLO:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($3.35) (USD)
Book Value/Share $49.58 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.01 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.22 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.34) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$686.59 (USD) 74.5
$148.22 (USD) 95.3
$13.59 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
0.00 PE Ratio 76.58 0.00 71.94 81.23 0.00 0.00
7.43 PB Ratio 13.85 7.36 0.00 3.26 37.64 7.13
30.66 PS Ratio 12.34 9.73 14.59 7.20 15.11 15.09
1654.44 PCF Ratio 79.62 76.57 43.49 141.95 0.00 56.49
0.00 EV to EBITDA 116.15 280.83 51.20 42.41 0.00 90.15


Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $278.47 (USD) for TWLO:NYS

Company TWLO:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($3.35) (USD)
Book Value/Share $49.58 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.01 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.22 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.34) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$442.29 (USD) 0
$167.88 (USD) 0
$225.24 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 8.92
PS Ratio 13.98
PCF Ratio 1011.86
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  TWLO:NYS for the last 5 years was  8.92

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  TWLO:NYS and generated a book value of  $51.53 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $459.63 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for TWLO:NYS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for TWLO:NYS for 2021 of $504.00 (USD).


Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
6 1 0 4.7143 Buy 2021-4-8

Current Price: 368.24 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS -0.13 0.26 0.99
# EPS Analysts 6 6 2
Mean Revenue 2,406.90 3,149.30 4,161.50
# Revenue Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Target Price 504.00
Mean Cash Flow -0.02 0.73 1.42
Mean EBITDA -174.80 -367.50
Mean Net Income -34.50 36.10 190.10
Mean Debt Outstanding -2,980.00 -3,101.00 -3,356.00
Mean Tax Rate 0.50 13.20 25.00
Mean Growth Rate 94.06
Mean Capital Expenditure 96.80 129.40 153.40

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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