Arcosa (ACA:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Arcosa (ACA:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Arcosa(ACA:NYS)

Industrials:Infrastructure Operations

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$62.58 (USD) 04/13/2021

Weighted Valuation
$70.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 11.9%

Valuation Models Comparables: $70.21 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $70.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (ACA:NYS USD)

Price 62.58
Range 61.34 – 63.17
52 week 32.18 – 68.23
Open 63.00
Vol / Avg. 219192/393016
Mkt cap 3.01B
P/E 28.71
Div/yield 0.20/0.00
EPS 2.18
Shares 48.17M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Arcosa Inc is a manufacturer and producer of infrastructure-related products and services. It operates in three segments namely Construction Products, Engineered Structures, and Transportation Products. The Construction Products segment produces and sells construction aggregates and manufactures and sells trench shields and shoring products and services for infrastructure-related projects. The Transportation Products segment manufactures and sells products for the inland waterway and rail transportation industries and the Engineered Structures segment manufactures and sells products for energy-related businesses, including structural wind towers, steel utility structures for electricity transmission and distribution, and storage and distribution containers.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ACA:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $132.55 (USD) for ACA:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ACA:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $132.55 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 4.25 $173.55 $107.17
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $109.23 $170.22
Tax Rate 0.23 $140.71 $124.40
Cash Flow 330,000,000 $126.38 $138.72
Capital Expenditures 7,440,000 $132.68 $132.42
Long Term Debt 0 $132.55 $132.55

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $115.80 (USD) for ACA:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $70.21 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were AeroVironment (AVAV:NAS), Werner Enterprises (WERN:NAS), Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS:NAS), Seaboard (SEB:ASE) and SkyWest (SKYW:NAS).

Company ACA:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.18 (USD)
Book Value/Share $39.28 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.91 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.36 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.43 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$90.23 (USD) 0.0
$110.87 (USD) 0.0
$116.24 (USD) 0.0
$132.24 (USD) 0.0
$129.43 (USD) 0.0
ACA:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AVAV:NAS WERN:NAS KTOS:NAS SEB:ASE SKYW:NAS
28.71 PE Ratio 41.39 89.26 19.77 41.12 15.42 0.00
1.59 PB Ratio 2.82 5.24 2.74 3.74 1.14 1.25
1.57 PS Ratio 2.91 6.85 1.41 4.44 0.61 1.25
11.68 PCF Ratio 25.66 30.33 7.51 71.22 15.03 4.20
12.05 EV to EBITDA 23.84 41.06 7.00 53.22 8.89 9.02

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $45.27 (USD) for ACA:NYS

Company ACA:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.18 (USD)
Book Value/Share $39.28 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.91 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.36 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.43 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$42.22 (USD) 0
$42.57 (USD) 0
$45.02 (USD) 0
$48.10 (USD) 0
$48.43 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.37
PB Ratio 1.08
PS Ratio 1.13
PCF Ratio 8.98
EV to EBITDA 8.92

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ACA:NYS for the last 3 years was  1.08

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ACA:NYS and generated a book value of  $39.26 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $42.55 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for ACA:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for ACA:NYS for 2021 of $70.00 (USD).

ACA:NYS Arcosa

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2021-4-12

Current Price: 62.58 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.09 2.64 2.55
# EPS Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Revenue 1,962.00 2,145.70 2,215.00
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 70.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 285.00 320.00 330.00
Mean Net Income 105.30 139.50
Mean Debt Outstanding 461.00 387.00 335.00
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 3.80
Mean Capital Expenditure 117.00 116.00 120.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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