Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Akebia Therapeutics(AKBA:NAS)

Healthcare:Biotechnology

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$3.12 (USD) 04/14/2021

Weighted Valuation
$3.53 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 13.4%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $3.53 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $5.50 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (AKBA:NAS USD)

Price 3.12
Range 3.03 – 3.19
52 week 2.22 – 13.58
Open 3.03
Vol / Avg. 3.02M/4.48M
Mkt cap 478.16M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -2.77
Shares 153.5M
Beta 1.81

Company Description

Akebia Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics to patients with kidney disease through hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) biology. Its lead product candidate is Vadadustat, an oral therapy, which is used for the treatment of anemia related to chronic kidney disease in non-dialysis and dialysis patients. The company is also developing a HIF-based portfolio of product for the treatment of anemia. Geographically, all the business activity is functioned through the region of United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AKBA:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($1.94) (USD) for AKBA:NAS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $9.87 (USD) for AKBA:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $8.26 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX:NAS), Pfenex (PFNX:ASE), Matinas BioPharma Hldgs (MTNB:ASE), iBio (IBIO:ASE) and Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE:ASE).

Company AKBA:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.77) (USD)
Book Value/Share $1.61 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.13 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.80) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.48) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$12.82 (USD) -59.9
$14.61 (USD) 0.0
($0.91) (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
AKBA:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CTMX:NAS PFNX:ASE MTNB:ASE IBIO:ASE AMPE:ASE
0.00 PE Ratio 4.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.34 0.00
1.93 PB Ratio 7.95 9.39 5.92 3.20 2.80 18.43
1.46 PS Ratio 315.89 3.32 10.38 1168.93 80.93 0.00
0.00 PCF Ratio 63.35 63.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $5.38 (USD) for AKBA:NAS

Company AKBA:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.77) (USD)
Book Value/Share $1.61 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.13 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.80) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($2.48) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$3.69 (USD) 0
$7.07 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 2.28
PS Ratio 3.32
PCF Ratio 9.73
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AKBA:NAS for the last 7 years was  2.11

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AKBA:NAS and generated a book value of  $1.67 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $3.53 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for AKBA:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for AKBA:NAS for 2021 of $5.50 (USD).

AKBA:NAS Akebia Therapeutics

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2021-4-13

Current Price: 3.115 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS -0.76 -0.52 -0.27
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 202.20 196.50 234.30
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 5.50
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income -135.10 -94.70 -51.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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