Argonaut Gold (AR:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Argonaut Gold (AR:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Argonaut Gold(AR:TSE)

Basic Materials:Gold

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$2.14 (USD) / $2.67 (CAD) 04/15/2021

Weighted Valuation
$3.33 (USD) / $4.17 (CAD)

Use a conversion rate of 1.2501 from USD to CAD.

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 56.0%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $4.61 (USD) / $5.76 (CAD)
Multiples: $2.01 (USD) / $2.51 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $6.25 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (AR:TSE CAD)

Price 2.67
Range 2.60 – 2.69
52 week 1.30 – 3.30
Open 2.60
Vol / Avg. 830218/716471
Mkt cap 838.03M
P/E 26.66
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.06
Shares 309.23M
Beta 1.13

Company Description

Argonaut Gold Inc is a Canadian gold company engaged in exploration, mine development and production. Its primary assets are the El Castillo mine and San Agustin mine, which together form the El Castillo Complex in Durango, Mexico, the La Colorada mine in Sonora, Mexico and the Florida Canyon mine in Nevada, USA. The company also holds the construction stage Magino project, the advanced exploration stage Cerro del Gallo project and several other exploration stage projects, all of which are located in North America.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AR:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $4.61 (USD) / $5.76 (CAD) for AR:TSE

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AR:TSE Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $4.61 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.34 $5.52 $3.95
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $4.02 $5.42
Tax Rate 0.30 $5.01 $4.21
Cash Flow 216,130,410 $4.26 $4.96
Capital Expenditures -59,824,400 $4.52 $4.70
Long Term Debt 1,496,000 $4.61 $4.61

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $6.64 (USD) / $8.30 (CAD) for AR:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $2.16 (USD) / $2.70 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were GT Gold (GTT:TSX), Galway Metals (GWM:TSX), Tudor Gold (TUD:TSX), Orezone Gold (ORE:TSX) and Pure Gold Mining (PGM:TSX).

Company AR:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.06 (USD) / $0.08 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $2.50 (USD) / $3.13 (CAD)
Sales/Share $1.35 (USD) / $1.68 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.47 (USD) / $0.59 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $0.41 (USD) / $0.51 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) / $0.00 (CAD) -40.3
$0.00 (USD) / $0.00 (CAD) -65.3
$0.00 (USD) / $0.00 (CAD) -63.2
($0.31) (USD) / ($0.39) (CAD) -3.5
$0.00 (USD) / $0.00 (CAD) 3.5
AR:TSE Ratios Used Average Values GTT:TSX GWM:TSX TUD:TSX ORE:TSX PGM:TSX
26.66 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.85 PB Ratio 15.36 38.20 7.65 8.98 12.70 9.28
1.59 PS Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4.55 PCF Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5.47 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $2.01 (USD) / $2.51 (CAD) for AR:TSE

Company AR:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.06 (USD) / $0.08 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $2.50 (USD) / $3.13 (CAD)
Sales/Share $1.35 (USD) / $1.68 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.47 (USD) / $0.59 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $0.41 (USD) / $0.51 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.96 (USD) / $1.20 (CAD) 0
$1.30 (USD) / $1.63 (CAD) 0
$2.17 (USD) / $2.71 (CAD) 0
$3.14 (USD) / $3.92 (CAD) 0
$2.47 (USD) / $3.09 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 15.94
PB Ratio 0.52
PS Ratio 1.61
PCF Ratio 6.69
EV to EBITDA 6.09

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AR:TSE for the last 10 years was  0.47

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AR:TSE and generated a book value of  $2.62 (USD) / $3.27 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $1.24 (USD) / $1.56 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 8 analysts that provide a valuation for AR:TSE. The 8 analysts have a concensus valuation for AR:TSE for 2021 of $5.00 (USD) / $6.25 (CAD).

AR:TSE Argonaut Gold

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 0 0 4.5000 Outperform 2021-4-15

Current Price: 2.67 CAD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 0.41 0.52 0.70
# EPS Analysts 8 8 5
Mean Revenue 547.70 583.20 694.10
# Revenue Analysts 7 6 2
Mean Target Price 5.00
Mean Cash Flow 0.64 0.76 0.96
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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