Cara Therapeutics (CARA:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Cara Therapeutics (CARA:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Cara Therapeutics(CARA:NAS)

Healthcare:Biotechnology

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$27.34 (USD) 04/19/2021

Weighted Valuation
$26.30 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 3.8%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $25.08 (USD)
Comparables: $22.32 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $31.50 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (CARA:NAS USD)

Price 27.34
Range 27.25 – 28.72
52 week 12.34 – 29.19
Open 28.35
Vol / Avg. 768659/1.78M
Mkt cap 1.36B
P/E 158.39
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.18
Shares 49.88M
Beta 1.31

Company Description

Cara Therapeutics Inc is an emerging biotechnology company involved in the development of novel therapeutics to treat human diseases associated with inflammation, pain, and pruritus. Cara’s most advanced compound, CR845, aims to treat acute pain and pruritus. This patented compound has analgesic, anti-inflammatory, and antipruritic properties that can be used for multiple therapeutic applications. Additionally, Cara’s objective is to use its proprietary drug-screening technology to develop a future pipeline of first-in-class molecules with analgesic and anti-inflammatory features.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CARA:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $0.78 (USD) for CARA:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CARA:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $0.78 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.98 $0.88 $0.70
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $0.71 $0.86
Tax Rate 0.27 $0.84 $0.72
Cash Flow 6,082,046 $0.73 $0.83
Capital Expenditures -234,800 $0.78 $0.78
Long Term Debt 0 $0.78 $0.78

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $22.32 (USD) for CARA:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $13.04 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Regenxbio (RGNX:NAS), Pfenex (PFNX:ASE), iBio (IBIO:ASE), Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE:ASE) and Protalix BioTherapeutics (PLX:ASE).

Company CARA:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.18 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.99 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.82 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.11) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.12 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.69 (USD) 0.0
$37.21 (USD) -58.8
$65.60 (USD) 0.0
($0.11) (USD) 0.0
$7.76 (USD) 0.0
CARA:NAS Ratios Used Average Values RGNX:NAS PFNX:ASE IBIO:ASE AMPE:ASE PLX:ASE
158.39 PE Ratio 3.84 0.00 0.00 3.84 0.00 0.00
5.71 PB Ratio 7.45 3.88 5.92 2.48 17.54 0.00
10.11 PS Ratio 23.27 8.32 10.38 71.61 0.00 2.76
0.00 PCF Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
222.80 EV to EBITDA 66.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.49

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $117.04 (USD) for CARA:NAS

Company CARA:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.18 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.99 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.82 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.11) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.12 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$19.58 (USD) 0
$25.98 (USD) 0
$405.87 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$16.72 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 108.79
PB Ratio 5.20
PS Ratio 143.97
PCF Ratio 501.05
EV to EBITDA 143.20

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CARA:NAS for the last 7 years was  5.02

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CARA:NAS and generated a book value of  $4.99 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $25.08 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for CARA:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for CARA:NAS for 2021 of $31.50 (USD).

CARA:NAS Cara Therapeutics

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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