California Water Service (CWT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

California Water Service (CWT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

California Water Service(CWT:NYS)

Utilities:Utilities – Regulated Water

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$61.35 (USD) 04/22/2021

Weighted Valuation
$52.37 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 14.6%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $50.97 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $49.53 (USD)
Multiples: $57.09 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $49.00 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (CWT:NYS USD)

Price 61.35
Range 61.15 – 61.91
52 week 41.66 – 61.35
Open 61.29
Vol / Avg. 154897/179791
Mkt cap 3.12B
P/E 31.14
Div/yield 0.85/0.01
EPS 1.97
Shares 50.82M
Beta 0.09

Company Description

California Water Service Group is a U.S. water and utilities holding company based in California. The company engages in the production, treatment, distribution, and sale of water for various uses. The firm operates through its subsidiaries, which can be divided between regulated and unregulated businesses. The regulated public utilities subsidiaries operate in California, New Mexico, Washington, and Hawaii. The unregulated subsidiaries provide water utility services to private companies and municipalities. The company derives the majority of its revenue from its operations in California and, overall, from residential customers.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CWT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $11.05 (USD) for CWT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CWT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $11.05 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 3.37 $22.26 $5.02
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $4.85 $22.48
Tax Rate 0.11 $13.54 $8.55
Cash Flow 315,300,000 $2.90 $19.19
Capital Expenditures -266,222,400 $4.67 $17.43
Long Term Debt 618,766,000 $11.65 $10.44

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $49.53 (USD) for CWT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $93.21 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Middlesex Water (MSEX:NAS), The York Water (YORW:NAS), American States Water (AWR:NYS), SJW Gr (SJW:NYS) and Essential Utilities (WTRG:NYS).

Company CWT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.97 (USD)
Book Value/Share $18.13 (USD)
Sales/Share $16.12 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.39 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.11 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$74.44 (USD) -30.6
$66.57 (USD) -10.8
$131.85 (USD) -46.9
$37.99 (USD) -99.7
$117.38 (USD) -29.2
CWT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values MSEX:NAS YORW:NAS AWR:NYS SJW:NYS WTRG:NYS
31.14 PE Ratio 37.79 38.61 40.47 35.03 32.07 42.75
3.38 PB Ratio 3.67 4.25 4.69 4.70 2.22 2.51
3.81 PS Ratio 8.18 10.45 12.44 6.18 3.49 8.34
25.63 PCF Ratio 25.70 27.72 33.11 24.72 18.93 24.00
16.82 EV to EBITDA 22.98 28.04 25.24 20.43 16.53 24.67

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $57.09 (USD) for CWT:NYS

Company CWT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.97 (USD)
Book Value/Share $18.13 (USD)
Sales/Share $16.12 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.39 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.11 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$71.19 (USD) 0
$53.05 (USD) 0
$49.59 (USD) 0
$32.31 (USD) 0
$79.33 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 36.14
PB Ratio 2.93
PS Ratio 3.08
PCF Ratio 13.50
EV to EBITDA 15.53

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CWT:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.78

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CWT:NYS and generated a book value of  $18.30 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $50.97 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for CWT:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for CWT:NYS for 2021 of $49.00 (USD).

CWT:NYS California Water Service

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 2 1.6667 Underperform 2021-4-21

Current Price: 61.35 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 1.78 1.84 2.00
# EPS Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Revenue 798.20 823.60 908.70
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 49.00
Mean Cash Flow 3.90 4.16 4.48
Mean EBITDA 271.10 291.60 315.30
Mean Net Income 90.20 96.20 102.70
Mean Debt Outstanding 1,174.30 1,224.50 1,259.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 285.00 285.00 285.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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