Domino’s Pizza (DPZ:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Domino’s Pizza(DPZ:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Restaurants

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$397.71 (USD) 04/23/2021

Weighted Valuation
$412.71 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.8%

Valuation Models Multiples: $434.05 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $412.71 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (DPZ:NYS USD)

Price 397.71
Range 395.50 – 401.02
52 week 330.24 – 433.78
Open 399.55
Vol / Avg. 366215/450570
Mkt cap 15.43B
P/E 32.10
Div/yield 3.12/0.01
EPS 12.39
Shares 38.8M
Beta 0.44

Company Description

Domino’s is a leading player in the $84 billion global quick service pizza category with nearly 19% market share and 36% of delivery dollars spent. The company generates revenue through franchise royalties, company-owned stores, and sales from 29 dough-manufacturing and supply chain centers. Of the 17,600 stores in 90 markets around the world as of December 2020, 6,000 are operated by domestic franchisees, 11,300 by international franchisees, and 360 are company owned. Domino’s posted $16.0 billion in systemwide retail sales in 2020.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for DPZ:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $601.07 (USD) for DPZ:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

DPZ:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $601.07 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 3.62 $854.32 $457.41
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $467.34 $836.76
Tax Rate 0.12 $637.22 $564.91
Cash Flow 1,025,800,000 $569.07 $633.06
Capital Expenditures 0 $601.07 $601.07
Long Term Debt 2,230,761,000 $603.94 $598.19

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $816.04 (USD) for DPZ:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $248.94 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Cannae Holdings (CNNE:NYS), Yum China Holdings (YUMC:NYS), Wingstop (WING:NAS), Shake Shack (SHAK:NYS) and Bloomin Brands (BLMN:NAS).

Company DPZ:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $12.39 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($85.06) (USD)
Sales/Share $103.87 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $14.95 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.99 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$887.10 (USD) -20.6
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$716.12 (USD) -32.4
$688.28 (USD) 57.0
$746.00 (USD) 29.3
DPZ:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CNNE:NYS YUMC:NYS WING:NAS SHAK:NYS BLMN:NAS
32.10 PE Ratio 71.60 1.95 30.32 182.53 0.00 0.00
0.00 PB Ratio 155.16 0.98 4.01 0.00 11.37 604.30
3.83 PS Ratio 6.89 5.93 2.88 17.05 7.83 0.78
26.60 PCF Ratio 53.38 0.00 21.34 64.75 109.66 17.76
24.76 EV to EBITDA 382.32 1.45 19.47 91.05 865.31 934.31

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $434.05 (USD) for DPZ:NYS

Company DPZ:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $12.39 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($85.06) (USD)
Sales/Share $103.87 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $14.95 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.99 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$452.15 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$378.96 (USD) 0
$444.14 (USD) 0
$460.95 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 36.49
PB Ratio 0.00
PS Ratio 3.65
PCF Ratio 29.70
EV to EBITDA 23.06

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  DPZ:NYS for the last 10 years was  0.00

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  DPZ:NYS and generated a book value of  ($84.91) (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 7 analysts that provide a valuation for DPZ:NYS. The 7 analysts have a concensus valuation for DPZ:NYS for 2021 of $412.71 (USD).

DPZ:NYS Domino’s Pizza

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
6 3 0 4.3333 Outperform 2021-4-22

Current Price: 397.71 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 12.76 14.75 17.02
# EPS Analysts 8 7 2
Mean Revenue 4,322.30 4,661.20 4,967.60
# Revenue Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Target Price 412.71
Mean Cash Flow 15.44 17.40 20.01
Mean EBITDA 846.80 935.60 1,025.80
Mean Net Income 497.60 562.60 619.70
Mean Debt Outstanding 4,024.00 4,135.80 4,095.60
Mean Tax Rate 18.50 18.50
Mean Growth Rate 12.65
Mean Capital Expenditure 100.00 101.30 97.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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