CarMax (KMX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

CarMax (KMX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

CarMax(KMX:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Auto & Truck Dealerships

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$131.08 (USD) 04/23/2021

Weighted Valuation
$128.33 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.1%

Valuation Models Comparables: $126.53 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $102.18 (USD)
Multiples: $107.67 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $138.25 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (KMX:NYS USD)

Price 131.08
Range 128.36 – 131.60
52 week 71.07 – 135.83
Open 129.69
Vol / Avg. 581733/1.21M
Mkt cap 21.39B
P/E 29.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 4.52
Shares 163.18M
Beta 1.67

Company Description

CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of 220 used retail stores at the end of fiscal 2021 plus one new vehicle store. It was formed in 1993 as a unit of Circuit City and spun off into an independent company in late 2002. Used-vehicle sales account for about 83% of revenue, wholesale about 14%, and the remaining portion is composed of extended service plans and repair. In fiscal 2021, the company retailed and wholesaled 751,862 and 426,268 used vehicles, respectively. CarMax is the largest used vehicle retailer in the U.S., but still estimates that it has only about 3.5% U.S. market share of vehicles 0 to 10 years old. CarMax is based in Richmond, Virginia.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for KMX:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($57.61) (USD) for KMX:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $126.53 (USD) for KMX:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $101.60 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Vroom (VRM:NAS), Driven Brands Holdings (DRVN:NAS), Lithia Motors (LAD:NYS), AutoNation (AN:NYS) and Penske Automotive Group (PAG:NYS).

Company KMX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.52 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.75 (USD)
Sales/Share $114.76 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$60.79 (USD) 19.7
$93.07 (USD) 61.7
$201.20 (USD) 28.8
($18.31) (USD) 0.0
$149.92 (USD) 33.3
KMX:NYS Ratios Used Average Values VRM:NAS DRVN:NAS LAD:NYS AN:NYS PAG:NYS
29.00 PE Ratio 13.45 0.00 0.00 16.72 10.48 13.15
4.90 PB Ratio 3.48 5.03 3.90 3.73 2.57 2.17
1.14 PS Ratio 1.75 2.46 4.83 0.71 0.41 0.35
32.42 PCF Ratio 18.73 0.00 52.04 11.43 5.49 5.94
28.44 EV to EBITDA 19.14 0.00 42.90 14.27 6.73 12.65

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $107.67 (USD) for KMX:NYS

Company KMX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.52 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.75 (USD)
Sales/Share $114.76 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $7.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$83.44 (USD) 0
$102.75 (USD) 0
$88.81 (USD) 0
$110.14 (USD) 0
$153.20 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.46
PB Ratio 3.84
PS Ratio 0.77
PCF Ratio 27.24
EV to EBITDA 19.56

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  KMX:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.82

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  KMX:NYS and generated a book value of  $26.75 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $102.18 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for KMX:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for KMX:NYS for 2022 of $138.25 (USD).

KMX:NYS CarMax

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
5 1 0 4.2857 Outperform 2021-4-22

Current Price: 131.08 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2022 2023 2024
Mean EPS 5.72 6.29 7.00
# EPS Analysts 7 7 1
Mean Revenue 22,876.80 24,485.00 25,476.00
# Revenue Analysts 5 5 1
Mean Target Price 138.25
Mean Cash Flow 4.57 4.91 3.24
Mean EBITDA 1,570.60 1,690.20
Mean Net Income 931.20 1,008.10 1,113.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 14,501.50 14,613.10
Mean Tax Rate 23.73 23.73 23.70
Mean Growth Rate 15.10
Mean Capital Expenditure 350.00 406.70 375.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


The contents of this report and the Stockcalc website are provided on an ‘‘as is’’ or ‘‘as available’’ basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. The information in this report or on the website is subject to continuous change and Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. assumes no responsibility to update or amend such information or that the information will be current. Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. does not claim that all information, calculations or opinions presented in this report or on its website are true, reliable, or complete. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment or other decision. Any information, data, opinions, calculations or recommendations provided by third parties through links to other websites or otherwise made available through this report or website are solely those of the third party and not of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. Please refer to the Terms of Use on stockcalc.com for further information.
To access all of the tools on Stockcalc, including more detailed valuation reports and the models used to generate these valuations, please subscribe for a free 30 day trial of Stockcalc here.